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Forums - Sales Discussion - Big 3 Shipments VS Sales every quarter/year since launch

Kynes said:
unknown_soul89 said:
Kynes said:

AFAIK, and if wrong please correct me, there is a small but important difference between what Sony considers sold, and what MS or Nintendo considers sold. If I'm not mistaken, Sony considers a PS3 sold when they receive the order, but MS or Nintendo provide the number of consoles not in their hands anymore. This could explain that bigger difference between Sony numbers and VGC numbers, than between MS or Nintendo numbers and VGC numbers.

 

I don't know in the console world, but in networking devices, there is a 4 weeks delay between your order and when the product leaves the manufacturing plant. This 4 weeks delay could explain that difference.

if you take away a third of the shipped for the last one of Sony the tally does become 314,260 instead of 2 million but I'd need evidence Sony counts it differently then MS

314260 or 1519370?

 

I'm not sure where I've read it, I think in one of The Source analysis. Maybe someone in the know can confirm or deny this.

I think I remember seeing it in one of their financial reports but I can't be sure but I'm near certain you're right about what sony do



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unknown_soul89 said:
Serious_frusting said:
myths n legends said:

there seems to be a lot of consistency here... sony ships high nintendo ships mid ms ships low, also notice at one point nintendo had 3 mil extra consoles so i dont get what the big deal is right now with sonys shipped numbers

the problem is the gap between sold and whats been shipped is too big for too long when it comes to Sony. If the is that many PS3's on shelves then the shops would not accept more shipments. If you remember the PS3 was supply constrained not so long ago and looking at the shipments vs sold, Being supply constrained would have been impossible with almost 2 million PS3's in the wild.

So VG chartz is consistently, inconsistent with ps3 sales what exactly is causing that

that fact that the ps3 is more popular and gets most of its sales outside of the USA and UK. Same goes for the PS2 if you look at the shipments that has been having compared to the sales this site is reporting. It is very hard to track most of europe, Asia, Latin america, South america, Africa.



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Kynes said:

AFAIK, and if wrong please correct me, there is a small but important difference between what Sony considers sold, and what MS or Nintendo considers sold. If I'm not mistaken, Sony considers a PS3 sold when they receive the order, but MS or Nintendo provide the number of consoles not in their hands anymore. This could explain that bigger difference between Sony numbers and VGC numbers, than between MS or Nintendo numbers and VGC numbers.

 

I don't know in the console world, but in networking devices, there is a 4 weeks delay between your order and when the product leaves the manufacturing plant. This 4 weeks delay could explain that difference.

I thought they had changed that? At least there was some definition of 'shipped' change from within the Sony camp in recent years.  They used to count 'shipped' as in transit from manufacturing plants to warehouses, but changed to be in line with the MS and Nintendo definition - in transit from warehouses to retailer outlets.  Maybe I'm wrong...



This is really good information. It would be even better if there was a regional breakdown (which I know is next to impossible based upon the info provided by the Big 3).  

The reason I say this is that while in one zone, there might not be any consoles available, another zone might have them sitting on the shelves going unclaimed. In other words, there might be a Wii or PS3 shortage in the US, but there might be plenty of PS3s available in Japan or so many Wiis in Europe that they are being discounted.

(That would also help to show the difference between personal experience and global reality)

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Kynes said:

AFAIK, and if wrong please correct me, there is a small but important difference between what Sony considers sold, and what MS or Nintendo considers sold. If I'm not mistaken, Sony considers a PS3 sold when they receive the order, but MS or Nintendo provide the number of consoles not in their hands anymore. This could explain that bigger difference between Sony numbers and VGC numbers, than between MS or Nintendo numbers and VGC numbers.

 

I don't know in the console world, but in networking devices, there is a 4 weeks delay between your order and when the product leaves the manufacturing plant. This 4 weeks delay could explain that difference.


If that was the case, there would still be something wrong because that would mean that their quarter started 4 weeks after April. 



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Jay520 said:


If that was the case, there would still be something wrong because that would mean that their quarter started 4 weeks after April. 


But would be circumvented by the fact that they'd be perpetually reporting on future shipments...making it always seem like they 'overshipped'.  I'm not sure anyone in the public is treated to Sony's book-keeping methodology.  



I wanted to keep the OP objective, but then I had to run out before I could lay down any of my own opinions on the numbers. Firstly, thanks for the praise so far. Secondly, I do have faith in VGC's numbers. It's all we have for worldwide weekly totals and they may not be perfect, but that's not possible for anyone to do the way things currently work. I believe the hardware is more than accurate enough to get a good sense of trends in the market, and thus I'll comment on these numbers as if they're concrete. Furthermore, this far into the generation if I think something is overtracked or undertracked, then it is probably only by a few hundred thousand at the most and over the course of the lifetime of the console, not one month or quarter. And as for the software side, I think it's fairly good also, but simply harder to track in general. Usually useful to tell if a game is a blockbuster, has good sales, or is a bomb, but not completely reliable to say X outsold Y. I wouldn't rely on any other tracker alone to say the same though either.

 

And now some analysis:

Glancing over all three tables and using plain old logic, it's pretty clear that the Big 3 generally "overship" in the July-Sept quarters as retailers want enough stock during the holidays to come the next quarter. Oct-Dec is a bit of a mixed bag where either shipments or sales can be higher. Again using logic, the shipments will "win" when retailers expect the console to be a hot item but it doesn't quite live up to expectations or when MS pushed enough units through to meet their 10M goal. Meanwhile, the sales will exceed shipments when it is the hot item, as in the Wii since its second holiday season, the 360 in 2008, or the PS3 last year. Finally, Jan-June have almost always been consecutive quarters for excess 360s and PS3s to make their way off store shelves. Nintendo was still struggling to meet demand for the Wii in its first few years, but lately they are falling into the same expected pattern.

@Kynes
That may be true, but I can't say for certain. I do know that Sony no longer simply counts units produced(which includes demo units, replacement units, and unsold units sitting in their warehouses) as shipped. It may be true that they count any unit ordered(even if it hasn't been produced yet) as shipped, but then again Nintendo or Microsoft could count the same way. I would think that financially the sale occurs when money is exchanged and that is when the units should be counted, but I don't know accounting laws/rules like that to say how it actually goes.

@Serious_frusting
It does seem to me that PS3(and likely PSP and PS2) are a bit undertracked, most likely due to the smaller, hard to track markets that Sony has expanded into. That could account for some of the roughly 2 million unit difference . However, unless ioi is "baking" estimates of those markets into Others or other regions, then we'd expect the gap to widen instead of remain pretty consistent for 2 years now. 

@mike_intellivision
I did think about doing a regional breakdown; however, I think Nintendo is the only one that's ever really done that as far as shipment numbers go. So while that would still be pretty interesting, I'd rather not go to the trouble if I can't do it for Microsoft and Sony as well.

Oh, but I did decide to make the tables for the handhelds as well. I'll edit within 24 hours.



good job



you need to edit them

end of june sold by vgc is now

72,411,568

40,785,782

36,567,029

and some of the other dates have changed other wise great thread



                                                             

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Thanks for the bump, you're right it does need updating. And I have to make good with my promise for the handhelds too. I should have time tomorrow to do that, and then in a couple of weeks we'll have new quarterly numbers to drool over also.