One thing about Nintendo and motion control, is that, for them, motion control is a means to an end, and not the end in itself.  Nintendo believes that Wiimote is a vehicle to get non-gamers into gaming of a wide range of types.  The idea is to be accessible and get them hooked.  What I see with Microsoft is that Kinect is meant to extend videogaming into new directions and NOT cause people to get into the normal play, which Nintendo likely believes is possible.  There is a wall up with Kinect, that isn't up with the Wii.  As far as Sony goes, they are trying to get the core into Wii style controls.

As for which will work, I can't say.

Seems their difficulty in on the perception of Motion Control vs Intuitive/Accessible Control. Nintendo uses the Wiiremote as an Inutive/Accesible Control to achieve game experiences. MS uses Motion Control as Motion Control games. A Means to an End or the End.

Do they? No offense intended towards you, but theres very little proof to support your argument on the intentions of Microsoft in relation to a not yet released interface.

Really?  Just by looking at the games that MS has currently shown, they are as intuitive as they can get.  Pretty much no instructions.  No buttons to press.  Take bowling for instance.  Grab a ball by reaching out to it, and then throwing the ball down the lane.  No holding a button down and releasing.  Just do it as you think it would be done.