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Forums - Sony - Sony: Xbox 720 and Wii 2 will beat PS4 to market

dallas on 12 July 2010

I just don't see what else nintendo can do to innovate the next go around.....they can't reinvent motion control.    They will probably be limited to an evolutionary upgrade......and this time around it will have a kinect enabled MS and a PS4 that won't be horrendously overpriced.  Sorry, but Ninty is facing some harder competition and i don't think that it will fare the same.



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axt113 on 12 July 2010

Why do you think N64 and GCN did so badly?

PS1 and 2 were not disruptions in that they followed the same trend that had been started with SNES, this was not crappy products for crappy consumers, Disruption is about two types of strategy, new market disruptions target nonconsumption, while low end market disruptions target overshot consumers, the Wii is doing that, as is the 3DS, the PS1 and 2 did not.

ROFL, the 3DS proves that Nintendo isn't going to make the mistakes of old and just release a console that just upgrades small things, there's no point to making the next system a 3DS HD system, as their competitors will do the same, the next system needs to do something different.

 

@Dallas, just because you cant see it doesn't mean Nintendo doesn't already have a dozen ideas



Rumors indicate that it is planning on following the first approach, sticking a new, motion-sensitive controller onto an existing console. Our perspective is that this is the worst of the three options.

-Clayton Christensen back in 2007 already knew Move would be a bad idea

axt113 on 12 July 2010
dallas said:
axt113 said:
dallas said:

this kinda reminded me of the US versus Soviet tank upgrades during the cold war.......the US would update its tanks ever 10-15 years and the soviets every 5-8.  The US made revolutionary upgrades to its tanks while the Soviets made evolutionary ones and ended up spending a lot more on R&D etc to keep its product going.    


Except Sony doesn't really do anything special with their upgrades, its just more power, nothing else, Nintendo on the other hand, changes the nature of the beast with their advances


Sure, they all innovate.  I would call kinect innovation.  I would call Wii motion control as well as the Blu-ray and 3d initives by Sony as innovation.  And 3d is a darn good strategy, as its going to basically force all 3d movies to be in blu-ray, and for movie theatres to buy sony's 3d projectors, and increase the market for 3d stuff in general.  It's a really broad reaching campaign that is going to do well.   I mean motion control vs that? wtf ,  it doesn't even compare lol


But these aren't disruptive innovations, Kinect, Blu-ray, glasses 3d, none of these have any disruptive potential as they are being used



Rumors indicate that it is planning on following the first approach, sticking a new, motion-sensitive controller onto an existing console. Our perspective is that this is the worst of the three options.

-Clayton Christensen back in 2007 already knew Move would be a bad idea

Smashchu2 on 12 July 2010
jarrod said:
Smashchu2 said:
jarrod said:

Honestly, looking at timelines I think it's likely Wii 2 will launch first (Wii fell in Japan in 2008 and hasn't really regained much ground since, and Nintendo always looks to their home market when planning launch cycles) and it may come as soon as Q4 2011.  In terms of hardware spec, Wii 2 will likely be just a normal generational upgrade, meaning there won't be as much pressure on Sony & Microsoft to push to their next cycles right away.  This will also likely benefit 3rd parties, as they'll now have 3 consoles to launch games across and share costs/risk with rather than just 2, though it might also result in the 3rd placer getting squeezed out GameCube-style as the gen goes on and Wii 2 gains ground.  Like with 3DS vs PSP, you can probably also expect Wii 2 spec to be a decent increase over PS3/360 capability, and probably with a focus on developer ease of use.

Microsoft's timeline I think depends entirely on how Kinect fares though.  They're in no hurry to rush the cycle, they've clearly shifted priority to profitability and MS PR has even espoused their own "10 year cycle" for 360.  Xbox 3 will probably launch alongside PS4, the only way I can see it launching earlier is if Kinect utterly bombs and the current 360 market basically dries up next year, in which case a Q4 2012 launch might be possible.  But that looks pretty unlikely imo.

I disagree a lot there. First, The Wii was never that strong in Japan. In 2008, it's best year, it sold 3 million. In 2009, it sold 2 million. It's a big drop in terms of relativity, but the system wasn't preforming that great overthere, esspecially when compaired to the US and Others. Nintendo will not launch unless they think Sony will launch. 2011 is far too early for even Sony. 2012 is most likely because it would be the most plausable for Sony to launch then.

As for Microsoft, don't try to tell their strategy. They change it every so often. They would only say "10 year life cycle," to copy Sony. They stole Reggie's 06 speech in their E3 09 conference. Kinect is going to kill Microsoft and the amount of talk from Microsoft on it is proof of that. Everyone thought their press conference was bad. And people from Microsoft keep saying how it's like Super Mario Brothers and will change everything. A fire broke out in their core market, and since Microsoft is retarded in the game business, they will not know how to put it out and will crumble.

Eh, "ever that strong" in Japan?  Until 2H 2008, Wii was actually outselling PS2 even launch aligned iirc, NO system has ever sold as well as Wii did upfront in Japan (not SFC, not PS2, not even DS).  The problem with maintaining that level of sales momentum was software support (both 1st and 3rd party), which is what directly led to the current Wii malaise in Japan.  Iwata's actually spoken on the issue at length.

At this point, I don't think Nintendo's even that concerned with Sony, even console side.  They'll launch Wii 2 next fiscal year for the same reasons they're launching 3DS this fiscal year; they can make more money with a new machine than the current one, piracy is steadily eating into their current bases and the timing gives them an opportunity to regroup and bring the 3rd parties back en masse.  Despite being huge worldwide, Nintendo also always looks to their home market first, and in Japan Wii definitely more than winding down (and basically abandoned by 3rd parties) now...

 

For Microsoft, I see Kinect as mainly a stall tactic and grab for some casual dollars.  They'll probably include Kinect in Xbox 3 as well though.   And despite their disasterous E3 conference, I don't think the hardcore are going to abandon MS overnight either... they'll wait for Sony because it's financially in thier interests to, for Nintendo it's basically the opposite.

I'm looking at the numbers. The Wii was going has been going down every year since 2007. Now, Iwata has probably talked about it before (I have not see anything myself), but the solution would not be "let's give up on the Wii and release a new console." Their solution would be to make more software, as it has always been. The Wii is also up YoY in May in the US and had it's strongest Christmas in 2009. It is doing very well. Why kill it now. "But the 3DS!" The DS lasted for 6 years from 2004 to 2010. The Wii will have only 5 years on the market despite it is a very successful console and there is no competition. Not to mention that Europe as an economy is crashing, so a system in 2011 will not be good.

Your reasonings for 2011 are not based on the current market happenings. What is going on is disruption. They are not releasing a new DS because it might make more money, They are doing it to disrupt 3D. Notice how Nintendo talked about "No more glasses," where Sony was all about them. It's not about making more money, it's about destroying Sony. They also launched the Wii right next to the PS3 and announced their price cut during Sony's TGS. The 360 was at $200 for a while and they only lower it aftre Sony's machine is $300. The name of the game is disruption and Nintendo is disrupting Sony. The Wii2 will only launch as a response to what they think Sony will do or if they have some controller or feature that will change the market. Otherwise, it makes little sense that a system is coming in 2011. Let's n ot forget the Wii came in 2006 and the DS in 2004, four years apart.

Microsoft is definatly not stalling. They have never been interested in the expanded audience, so why start now? They are a shooter console, not a fitness one. It's to stop Nintendo. Natal is (or was) possitioned to stop Nintendo's disruption. The reason they will leave Microsoft is because a fire broke out in their core market. Scott Anthony talks about it here. The fire broke out and Microsoft has to put it out. Seeing as Microsoft is incompitent, it will fail and Microsoft will not bounce back.



Smashchu2 on 12 July 2010
snfr said:
axt113 said:
snfr said:
 

Wasn't Sony also disruptive with the PSone and PS2 in your opinion?

Anyway, just imagine the Wii2 is just an HD and 3D update of the Wii with much better graphics of course. If this is the case then I wouldn't know why I had to buy a Wii2 (except for the exclusives, of course) instead of a cheaper PS3 (then).


No Sony and wasn't disruptive at all with PS1 or 2, those were sustaining.

 

Except the next Nintendo system won't just be a 3D, HD upgrade

Why?

And if the next Wii is just an 3D and HD upgrade or not..., well, no one knows, but I think there is a big chance that it could end like this.

Double post, I'm sorry.

Sustianing Innvoation is making it better. The PS1 was better than the SNES. The PS2 was better than the PS1. Disruptive innovations are ones which doing it differently, like being more affordable, more customizable, simplier, ect. Here is a video one it. Note how he pulls out a Wii Remote.



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snfr on 12 July 2010
axt113 said:

Why do you think N64 and GCN did so badly?

PS1 and 2 were not disruptions in that they followed the same trend that had been started with SNES, this was not crappy products for crappy consumers, Disruption is about two types of strategy, new market disruptions target nonconsumption, while low end market disruptions target overshot consumers, the Wii is doing that, as is the 3DS, the PS1 and 2 did not.

ROFL, the 3DS proves that Nintendo isn't going to make the mistakes of old and just release a console that just upgrades small things, there's no point to making the next system a 3DS HD system, as their competitors will do the same, the next system needs to do something different.

 

@Dallas, just because you cant see it doesn't mean Nintendo doesn't already have a dozen ideas

I never said they did badly, the N64 was actually an awesome console. But they both added really nothing groundbreaking to the console landscape. So why are you so sure that Nintendo won't do that again? What can they add to a Wii2 that will be groundbreaking?

Don't get me wrong, I like Nintendo, but I do not have as much faith in them as many Nintendo fans. And for me actually they have never developed a better console than the N64.



2012 - Top 3 [so far]

                                                                             #1                                       #2                                      #3

      

snfr on 12 July 2010
Smashchu2 said:
snfr said:

Why?

And if the next Wii is just an 3D and HD upgrade or not..., well, no one knows, but I think there is a big chance that it could end like this.

Double post, I'm sorry.

Sustianing Innvoation is making it better. The PS1 was better than the SNES. The PS2 was better than the PS1. Disruptive innovations are ones which doing it differently, like being more affordable, more customizable, simplier, ect. Here is a video one it. Note how he pulls out a Wii Remote.

I first had a different understanding of "disruptive", that's why I asked. So, thanks for adding that.



2012 - Top 3 [so far]

                                                                             #1                                       #2                                      #3

      

dallas on 12 July 2010
axt113 said:

Why do you think N64 and GCN did so badly?

PS1 and 2 were not disruptions in that they followed the same trend that had been started with SNES, this was not crappy products for crappy consumers, Disruption is about two types of strategy, new market disruptions target nonconsumption, while low end market disruptions target overshot consumers, the Wii is doing that, as is the 3DS, the PS1 and 2 did not.

ROFL, the 3DS proves that Nintendo isn't going to make the mistakes of old and just release a console that just upgrades small things, there's no point to making the next system a 3DS HD system, as their competitors will do the same, the next system needs to do something different.

 

@Dallas, just because you cant see it doesn't mean Nintendo doesn't already have a dozen ideas


I can't see it...look there aren't that many ways that you can reinvent the wheel.  What is Ninty going to do, make a bigger and better kinect?  lol.   Make a better wand or something?  more likely but that will hardly be a big deal.

I personally don't see many ways that nintendo even could possibly do anything else.    You're the one supporting Nintendo, what could they be doing if anything?



axt113 on 12 July 2010
snfr said:
axt113 said:

Why do you think N64 and GCN did so badly?

PS1 and 2 were not disruptions in that they followed the same trend that had been started with SNES, this was not crappy products for crappy consumers, Disruption is about two types of strategy, new market disruptions target nonconsumption, while low end market disruptions target overshot consumers, the Wii is doing that, as is the 3DS, the PS1 and 2 did not.

ROFL, the 3DS proves that Nintendo isn't going to make the mistakes of old and just release a console that just upgrades small things, there's no point to making the next system a 3DS HD system, as their competitors will do the same, the next system needs to do something different.

 

@Dallas, just because you cant see it doesn't mean Nintendo doesn't already have a dozen ideas

I never said they did badly, the N64 was actually an awesome console. But they both added really nothing groundbreaking to the console landscape. So why are you so sure that Nintendo won't do that again? What can they add to a Wii2 that will be groundbreaking?

Don't get me wrong, I like Nintendo, but I do not have as much faith in them as many Nintendo fans. And for me actually they have never developed a better console than the N64.


If I knew what Nintendo could do, I'd be working there right now making millions and taking home some of those money printers, but I don't know, I can only see their corporate philosophy and actions and judge based on that



Rumors indicate that it is planning on following the first approach, sticking a new, motion-sensitive controller onto an existing console. Our perspective is that this is the worst of the three options.

-Clayton Christensen back in 2007 already knew Move would be a bad idea

axt113 on 12 July 2010
dallas said:
axt113 said:

Why do you think N64 and GCN did so badly?

PS1 and 2 were not disruptions in that they followed the same trend that had been started with SNES, this was not crappy products for crappy consumers, Disruption is about two types of strategy, new market disruptions target nonconsumption, while low end market disruptions target overshot consumers, the Wii is doing that, as is the 3DS, the PS1 and 2 did not.

ROFL, the 3DS proves that Nintendo isn't going to make the mistakes of old and just release a console that just upgrades small things, there's no point to making the next system a 3DS HD system, as their competitors will do the same, the next system needs to do something different.

 

@Dallas, just because you cant see it doesn't mean Nintendo doesn't already have a dozen ideas


I can't see it...look there aren't that many ways that you can reinvent the wheel.  What is Ninty going to do, make a bigger and better kinect?  lol.   Make a better wand or something?  more likely but that will hardly be a big deal.

I personally don't see many ways that nintendo even could possibly do anything else.    You're the one supporting Nintendo, what could they be doing if anything?


See, this is where you are making the mistake, you're thinking sustaining only, I'm talking disruption, it isn't going to be about motion controls, or graphics, those are already done or being done, it'll be something else



Rumors indicate that it is planning on following the first approach, sticking a new, motion-sensitive controller onto an existing console. Our perspective is that this is the worst of the three options.

-Clayton Christensen back in 2007 already knew Move would be a bad idea