Your argument only works if you’re under the assumption that casual gamers are morons who have no capacity to chew bubblegum and walk at the same time, and will mindlessly buy something because someone tells them to.

Now, I do admit that the pubescent pre-teen girls that follow Justin Bieber have their minds swimming in hormones and urges they can’t control and don’t understand; and these are easy to capitalize on by selling a product endorsed by one of their idols. Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on your perspective) there are fairly strict limits to the amount of money you can get from these girls being that they don’t earn any income, and don’t really have any savings; and $500 for a gaming system, motion controller accessory and game is an order of magnitude beyond what these girls have access to. Some parents may indulge their daughters, but (from experience) most parents will wait it out to see if their daughter’s desire for it passes; because they tend to. 

Within this narrow demographic an insignificant number of XBox 360 systems will be sold specifically because of this, a larger but still insignificant number of XBox 360 systems will be sold with this being a contributing factor, some Kinetic systems will be sold to households that have XBox 360s, and this dancing game will be very popular in households that have an XBox 360 and were going to by Kinetic anyways. Or to put it another way, parents are likely to give into the $50 indulgence, may give into the $200 indulgence, and not likely to give into the $500 indulgence.

Outside of this demographic people are far less likely to be swayed into buying anything because of a celebrity endorsement; especially if it is something that is expensive or they had no intention of buying otherwise. I don’t know who you idolize, but I doubt if they started endorsing $500 dresses you’d start wearing one.

Of course not, I'm a male.  Had you said something relevant to me, such as Peyton Manning endorsing some $500 workout machine, I would be much more inclined to consider it.

Also, while I appreciate an actual educated and thought out response that you gave, unlike morenoingrato, you also make some assumptions that flaw your arguments.  First off, it's KINECT, not Kinetic.  That was just getting on my nerves.  Second, you are assuming a price of $150 that is far from set in stone for KINECT, and you are also assuming that there will be no price reduction or cheaper 360 KINECT bundle than $450.  The latter I especially expect to be no more than $400 and possibly as low as $350, the former I think has a great chance of being only $100-120.

A 360 Arcade Slim Kinect bundle could be as low as $250-300, meaning the purchase cost would be only $300-350 for the total package with the Dance Central game.  Parents are probably pretty likely to fold at this price, especially around the holidays when Kinect launches.

Justin who? Some girls' idol, you say?

Well, MS, nice move indeed. But like any product that is hype without substance, it may start strong but non-existent word of mouth will kill it's potential. People aren't idiots, at least I keep faith in humanity, and they'll reject smth that has no value to them. Kinect has a good chance to become what Wii should have been in eyes of industry - a fad.

I can assure you KINECT is a very real thing.

What do you mean by "real"?

I mean its an actual product with substance.

What make you think that way?

Because it has games a lot of people are gonna love...

I found this amusing ^^

A $149 arcade WILL happen this xmas, so even IF Kinect is $149, and they don't give a discount in the bundle, that's $299.

It could well be $99, or they could well chip $50 off and bundle with every 360 going, OR they could be crazy and do both $199 bundle.

It's optimisim of course, but ya .... $199 bundle would be sweeet (but I very much doubt it) $249 though, defo.

$199 bundle with KINECT would be just sick.