When you look at the software line up, it does indeed look very much like a copy of what the Wii has already shown and what the Eye toy showed like seven year's ago. You also talk about how Kinect is an upgrade as if it is the only option available, the Move got a much more positive reception and it also offer's a HD upgrade. Your also downplaying the Wii as if it wouldn't be competitive any more in that market because Kinect is some how better, reports have shown that it isn't perfect. 

Microsoft also haven't announced a Kinect price, they also haven't given any hint leading toward's a $299 bundle, what your doing is randomly speculating what could happen. 

The mainstream media has been pretty bare on Kinect, from what I've seen a few outlet's have been positive and the overwhelming majority has been negative. The gaming press is also negative. 

The hardcore is what the 360 relies on at the moment, they gave us nothing new at E3 except for a decent Slim model and an interesting user interface. You can't expect that just because it's casual, the casual buyers will swarm on the product as if it is the second coming.

Your insulting the intelligence of casual buyer's by assuming they buy anything cute and shiny and don't also judge a product  based on it's performance and functionality.