Well, taking what they sold by end of 2009, what they sold the last couple of years, good estimation of what they'll sale in 2010 and first 3 months of 2011 and you have your answer.

I disagree on the views of Kinect Sports and the fitness title.  First off they are both more intense and will appeal to the mom in the house.  

Kinect Sports will be Xbox Live enabled.  And with full body detection will be more interactive compared to WiiSports. No more tricking WiiSports into thinking you did something when you just flicked your wrist.

Lets face it if I want to run in WiiFit the board does nothing and you need to use the motion controller to try and detect that you are running.  Kinect knows your running.  Kinect looks at you and sizes you up: height, body shape, etc. The only think WiiFit will have on you is a scale with the board.  Far more variety of exercises will be available as well and again they can be more intense since you wont be stuck to the board.

RE: sports

You can't forget the more current WiiSportsResort w/ motion that most people have already and is packed in for free now and the fact that without a nunchuk are you really going to hop, run in place, etc all the time for those other games, like soccer? Notice there was only a live demo of track n field (something that existed almost identically on NES), rest was all a video. Its just not going to be that good and in a short time hands on impressions will confirm that for us.

RE:fitness games

WiiFitPlus is a really good workout. While full body will help you in yoga, running(arguable no difference), and maybe a mini game or two, the balance board equals everything else plus it can accurately tell you your weight and posture. Throw in the MANY really fun minigames and it has the kinect beat soundly.

Fact is neither of those games will cause anyone to buy a 360 if they already have a Wii.

Updated with new bundle pricing from Gamestop.

My final words are going to be so true come end of this year its crazy talk.

I have WiiFit plus and it gives a light workout when I cant get to the healthclub. At the healthclub I burn nearly twice the amount of calories.  I have been working out seriously since January so I am not some beast.  WiiFit games and exercises can be fooled and dont spot mistakes.  Again you are tied to the annoying board as well.  I can use a scale to weight myself.  From what we saw today Kinect may be able to handle posture as well.  Can we please be honest that something that tracks your whole body during movement is going to be more accurate.

lol, of course actual gym equipment can give the best workout and any game you'll be able to cheat. But the wfplus can give you a good workout if done right. If you cheat then you're a tool anyways, what's the point?

Tracking your body movement is not all that is needed. Balance and weight are also very important, even more so on many items.

The overall package in WFplus is still, IMO, better than what I saw on display. Regardless, what has been shown thus far won't cause people to purchase a $300 product if they already have Wii/wfplus/wsr.

Unless you believe there are no additional Wii consumers out there then the 360 with Kinect still has a market.  I didnt say I cheat, but the Wii cant detect cheating or more importantly you doing something incorrectly.  The demo today went right into that and showed how the software will instruct you that you are doing it wrong or how to simply improve.  Wii cant do this. Tell me how well will Wii Board work with Dumbells?  Kinect could detect them. Even in the demo today the screen showed dumbells on the floor.   Maybe a preview of potential that the software detects dumbbells.  Wii cant do this.

i believe those current 360 HW and natal prices will stay like that till reach or natal launch they will go lower this yr $249 for new 360 and $349 for it bundled with natal

Of course there are other potential expanded audience consumers. However, all of their friends likely own Wii. They have probably played Wii at their houses. Its already familiar and known to be very fun to them. Kinect has none of that advantage.

So they go to the store, see the product they already know for $199 with WiiSports/WSR/WM . It has online, Netflix, and a bunch of games they already recognize, many of which discounted.

They also see a 360 for $299 with this new Kinect device. They know almost nothing about it and have never played it. Also, none of their friends own one. It looks kinda cool, but comes with far less games and costs $100 more.

Which do you think is far more likely to be purchased?

I think we've come the end of our fitness game discussions. Neither one of us have played the Kinect one and we are arguing tit for tat about the features. Furthermore, there is no reason you couldn't use dumbells on WFPlus and its balance board is extremely accurate, so yes it can tell when you are doing something incorrect. That's how the whole point system works.

Maybe, but I think unlikely unless PS3 has a price drop to force Microsofts hand.