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Forums - Sony - Why people are overestimating the Wii's life time sales

rocketpig on 30 November 2007
MontanaHatchet said:
llewdebkram said:
Because they don't stop and think how well Nintendo consoles are made compared to Sony's who's break down easily, which is a why I believe a significant number of PS1/PS2 purchases are by the same people buying after breakdown.

 I believe that the reason the NES sold so well is that people dropped them off of 30 story high buildings and had to rebuy them.

I bought four and used them to keep my kitchen table level.




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cdemakis23 on 30 November 2007

If a Wii sport becomes a hit as Brain Training was to DS then MAYBE the Wii estimates are not overestimated, because then they will accomplish their goal of attracting a broader market. However I don’t really know what analysis are expecting but I cant see the Wii selling over 100 million units no matter what new titles they release, but it would be great if it does.



mancandy on 30 November 2007
PS-She said:
TheBigFatJ said:
PS-She said:
TheBigFatJ said:

Less than 10% of the US playstation owners bought Final Fantasy 7. More than twice as many people in the US bought super mario 64. So, uh, how exactly was this a huge release that killed the N64?


Super Mario 64 was also a launch title. Shall we compare quantities sold of Wii Sports to Super Mario Galaxy now as well because the result would be just as meaningless.

 

It would be meaningless for a different reason. Wii sports is bundled.

My point is that Super Mario 64 had a bigger impact in the US than final fantasy 7. Launch title or not.

 


No more or less than Super Mario 64 practically was. For early n64 owners, it was their first game. Of course, Wii Sports was also not bundled everywhere IIRC.

Your point is supported only by sales of that single game and nothing else however. My point is supported by the fact the Playstation won that generation. Final Fantasy VII proved that you could make a great and profitable game with CDs and on a non-Nintendo console. Developers were getting pissed at Nintendo and Squaresoft showed them that Sony had a future. Maybe its sales weren't what SM64's were, but the ripple effect from its success more than made up for its (still highly profitable) sales.


The Playstation won that generation, but you can't attribute it to FFVII. That is just plain blind. FFVII had some part, but it's role was very small. You could make a profitable game with ANY game on a CD. I must agree with naznatips, your gaming history knowledge is limited.



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takeru51 on 30 November 2007
MontanaHatchet said:
darconi said:
MontanaHatchet said:
RolStoppable said:
This thread didn't bring up any compelling reasons why the Wii would end up with less than 70 % market share.

Price drops didn't help struggling consoles in the past (Xbox, GC) and the resource shift of publishers will only improve Wii sales. Higher Wii sales will increase 3rd party support which will lead to even more Wii sales.

The 360 looks like it will easily outsell the Xbox, and the PS3 will easily end up outselling the Gamecube, so even if the Wii managed to beat the PS2, it couldn't hold the same dominant marketshare.


Thats only assuming that the market stays relatively the same size. There are general reports that indicate the market demographic and split has changed. So that's not necessarily true.


What's not true?


You're assuming that there will be no market expansion this generation, contrary to what a lot of news stories have seemed to describe. Therefore, it is wholly possible for the Wii to end up just as dominant as the PS2 was.



darendt on 30 November 2007

I just got a Wii last week, and already the novalty has worn off. Dont get me wrong, its a pretty good console. Better than I thought, as it does include Wi-fi, has an SD reader and Built in controller ports for gamecube controllers. The games I have played....Super Mario Galaxy and Wii sports are fun games, but get old quick. For this reason, I dont see the Wii outselling the PS2. First of all the PS2 is still selling, and second I dont feel the Wii has the longevity in it that the PS2 did.



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takeru51 on 30 November 2007
darendt said:
I just got a Wii last week, and already the novalty has worn off. Dont get me wrong, its a pretty good console. Better than I thought, as it does include Wi-fi, has an SD reader and Built in controller ports for gamecube controllers. The games I have played....Super Mario Galaxy and Wii sports are fun games, but get old quick. For this reason, I dont see the Wii outselling the PS2. First of all the PS2 is still selling, and second I dont feel the Wii has the longevity in it that the PS2 did.

It seems that your problem is that you approached it as a novelty, not a system. I never thought there was any novelty to it, and I seem to still have lots of fun with mine... So do most people it seems.



mancandy on 30 November 2007
darendt said:
I just got a Wii last week, and already the novalty has worn off. Dont get me wrong, its a pretty good console. Better than I thought, as it does include Wi-fi, has an SD reader and Built in controller ports for gamecube controllers. The games I have played....Super Mario Galaxy and Wii sports are fun games, but get old quick. For this reason, I dont see the Wii outselling the PS2. First of all the PS2 is still selling, and second I dont feel the Wii has the longevity in it that the PS2 did.

Oh hey...the Wii has more than 2 games. Thanks for trying.



Wii Code 8761-5941-4718-0078 

Zucas on 30 November 2007

Eugene- cause there are fanboys on all sides of the spectrum. So of course your going to have outrageous predictions for the Wii, just like you have outrageous predictions for the Wii on the opposite spectrum(what was that one analyst who only said Wii would sell 21 million units lifetime).

But yea it's not surprising to see such outrageous predictions when such fanboys exist. I mean its like that that on all sides isn't it.



naznatips on 30 November 2007
darendt said:
I just got a Wii last week, and already the novalty has worn off. Dont get me wrong, its a pretty good console. Better than I thought, as it does include Wi-fi, has an SD reader and Built in controller ports for gamecube controllers. The games I have played....Super Mario Galaxy and Wii sports are fun games, but get old quick. For this reason, I dont see the Wii outselling the PS2. First of all the PS2 is still selling, and second I dont feel the Wii has the longevity in it that the PS2 did.

Feel like posting your friend code?  Anyway, its really way too early to have this discussion.  We have no idea how much the Wii will sell at this point in time.  Also, the market is obviously expanding this generation, so the Wii could still sell as much as the PS2 but not hold more than 50% of the market.



Girl Gamer Elite on 30 November 2007

Why people underestimate the Wii's lifetime sales:

- Thinking the First year is all that matters.