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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - To those who don't understand my 60 million in 2008 prediction

Gamerace on 22 November 2012
JGarret said:
Gamerace said:
JGarret said:
Gamerace said:
Holy Necros Batman!!

And damn, look at my prediction back in 2007! I correctly predicted Apple entering the market and expanding it even further - although I didn't envision how Apple would do it at that time (iPad). I was very close to when it would happen (predicted end of '09, happened in April '10).

I predicted 360 and Sony would both cut Wii's potential short by re-orienting themselves and going after the casuals (Kinect, Move) although they took longer than I expected and Sony did a sh-t job of it.


And I predicted the VG industry would become enormous - 600m - if you count smartphones and tablets along with consoles (which I do as they are all extensively used for gaming - tablets 66% of use, phones 35% of use) then this is probably pretty damn close.

Damn. I'm good.

Now go ahead and shoot me off my high horse.


*shoots Gamerace* :0

Taking a look back and seeing how the Wii was breaking all sorts of records, on its way to surpassing the PS2..then all of a sudden BAM, it hasn´t even surpassed the PS1.

Admittedly, Wii didn't live up to my expectations, but I expected it to fall short of it's potential for a lot of listed reasons (go check it out) including Kinect and Apple entering the market.    Nintendo vastly disappointed me by effectively abandoning it's own strategy after 2009.   This more than anything else, caused the Wii to fall short of PS2.   But look at Apple!!  It's the 800 pound gorilla now and Samsung/Android isn't too far behind.   They took what Wii started and ran with it, creating the vast market we have now - just as I predicted.


I wonder what are the chances of 'another Wii' or 'another PS2' happening...and also, of all the people who stopped gaming after the NES/SNES and returned with the Wii, and those who had never shown interest in videogames until the Wii...how many of them will upgrade to the Wii U?...do they even view the Wii U as an upgrade?...or they don´t even know/care what the Wii U is because a lot of them have moved to smartphones?...these are interesting questions.

I'm on record as predicting the WiiU will do 30-50m and probably closer to 30m.   The casual market is on smartphones/tablets.  WiiU neither effectively competes with that nor acts as an upgrade to current HD consoles.    It will get the Nintendo-core and some spill-over from Wii but mostly WiiU is two years too late to become a hit console.   Also, those Wii owners bought a Wii because of the simplicity of the Wiimote.   The WiiU has done the absolutely bizarre and uncomprehensable thing of going back to the archaic dual analog design that Nintendo themselves identify as a major hurdle to expanding the market.  That alone will cause them to lose their audience, especially is MS makes good with a revised Kinect. 

I predict the next gen's is Microsofts to win (or lose).   Everything is in their favour and if they execute, as it appears they will, they will be the dominate system (except in Japan).   However, that'll probably be 80m as tablets continue to erode the console market.

Stats and sales show a continuing movement of 'semi-casual' or 'mid-core' (I'm in there somewhere) going to tablets and free 2 play.    I don't see WiiU as appealing enough to prevent that.  Those people will stick with their current HD systems and tablets devices.   Only a console that offers a fun, experience that tablets can't match (and isn't a core experience) will intense a significant number of people to purchase a console.  MS looks primed to offer just that.  



 

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NintendoPie on 22 November 2012
Mummelmann said:
Why should we all pray that the Wii gets such colossal sales? That will take devs away from 360 and PS3 and make good games for those platforms even more rare than today! I want a diverse market with tough competition, and as I've stated before; I'm no fan of technological setbacks.
The Wii is cool for those who like it, but having it take all the thunder will damage the gaming industry in the long run by making devs too timid to create games for more advanced platforms and voila; the console industry is ruined (or damn nearly...)
Sorry to burst everyones bubble, but that's how I feel.

It actually seems like the 3rd party support (quality wise) has gone the other way around.



JGarret on 22 November 2012
Gamerace said:
JGarret said:
Gamerace said:
JGarret said:
Gamerace said:
Holy Necros Batman!!

And damn, look at my prediction back in 2007! I correctly predicted Apple entering the market and expanding it even further - although I didn't envision how Apple would do it at that time (iPad). I was very close to when it would happen (predicted end of '09, happened in April '10).

I predicted 360 and Sony would both cut Wii's potential short by re-orienting themselves and going after the casuals (Kinect, Move) although they took longer than I expected and Sony did a sh-t job of it.


And I predicted the VG industry would become enormous - 600m - if you count smartphones and tablets along with consoles (which I do as they are all extensively used for gaming - tablets 66% of use, phones 35% of use) then this is probably pretty damn close.

Damn. I'm good.

Now go ahead and shoot me off my high horse.


*shoots Gamerace* :0

Taking a look back and seeing how the Wii was breaking all sorts of records, on its way to surpassing the PS2..then all of a sudden BAM, it hasn´t even surpassed the PS1.

Admittedly, Wii didn't live up to my expectations, but I expected it to fall short of it's potential for a lot of listed reasons (go check it out) including Kinect and Apple entering the market.    Nintendo vastly disappointed me by effectively abandoning it's own strategy after 2009.   This more than anything else, caused the Wii to fall short of PS2.   But look at Apple!!  It's the 800 pound gorilla now and Samsung/Android isn't too far behind.   They took what Wii started and ran with it, creating the vast market we have now - just as I predicted.


I wonder what are the chances of 'another Wii' or 'another PS2' happening...and also, of all the people who stopped gaming after the NES/SNES and returned with the Wii, and those who had never shown interest in videogames until the Wii...how many of them will upgrade to the Wii U?...do they even view the Wii U as an upgrade?...or they don´t even know/care what the Wii U is because a lot of them have moved to smartphones?...these are interesting questions.

I'm on record as predicting the WiiU will do 30-50m and probably closer to 30m.   The casual market is on smartphones/tablets.  WiiU neither effectively competes with that nor acts as an upgrade to current HD consoles.    It will get the Nintendo-core and some spill-over from Wii but mostly WiiU is two years too late to become a hit console.   Also, those Wii owners bought a Wii because of the simplicity of the Wiimote.   The WiiU has done the absolutely bizarre and uncomprehensable thing of going back to the archaic dual analog design that Nintendo themselves identify as a major hurdle to expanding the market.  That alone will cause them to lose their audience, especially is MS makes good with a revised Kinect. 

I predict the next gen's is Microsofts to win (or lose).   Everything is in their favour and if they execute, as it appears they will, they will be the dominate system (except in Japan).   However, that'll probably be 80m as tablets continue to erode the console market.

Stats and sales show a continuing movement of 'semi-casual' or 'mid-core' (I'm in there somewhere) going to tablets and free 2 play.    I don't see WiiU as appealing enough to prevent that.  Those people will stick with their current HD systems and tablets devices.   Only a console that offers a fun, experience that tablets can't match (and isn't a core experience) will intense a significant number of people to purchase a console.  MS looks primed to offer just that.  

I predict the Wii U doing about 60 million.at this point, MS has NA, has improved a lot in Europe (being number one in the UK), an acquaintance of mine told me he heard from a Brazilian friend of his that MS is improving a lot in Brazil (one of the biggest emerging markets and apparently the country is now the 7th in terms of consoles sold, going up year after year according to him), with the 360 now having about 60% of the market down there at the moment.And Japan, that´s a big question mark...with the country favoring handhelds more and more, does one still need to strike big there to secure a worldwide victory for home console sales?

Also, John Lucas made this thread 4 months after the Wii launched...around MarchApril next year there should be a thread where we can discuss similar topics.