Killer apps are the critical feature. I haven't seen anything from the first parties of either Sony or Microsoft which indicates that after years of creating nichy 1-3M selling 'gems' that they can learn the lessons which Nintendo have taught themselves over the past 20 years or so about how to create mass market appeal in their games. Nintendo aren't exactly a fair competitor and if 3rd parties complain, then what makes Sony and Microsofts developers significantly different from the rest of the third parties when you can interchange most of the games with a 3rd party equivalent?

Nintendo are a dangerous competitor because they can prototype game concepts and change focus so very quickly and they can take a game from the prototype stage to release in an incredibly short length of time. If they move to an X86 AMD fusion based console for the next generation they will be even more dangerous as they would have been able to prototype their games very early and quickly because X86 compilers are very speedy relative to the PS3/Xbox 360 compilers. They could get excellent games out at an even faster pace than the current generation whilst not even substantially changing their development costs.

But yeah, they'd need over 7M within a year which is quite a hard ask on a good day.

I disagree. Anyhow, how is 4m not impressive? You need 5m sales to make it successful?
Being a ps3 fan, i'm looking forward to move and Natal equally. I think they will both be great.

For a very rough example, 4 million in Natal/Move wouldn't be much of a bigger presence than....Carnival Games is in the marketplace.

Might as well support the Balance Board if you are a 3rd party.

It depends on your definition of success. For move, I'd say if they can move 10-15 million units and have third party games that were wii exclusive go to ps3, thats a success in my book. If natal can expand MS name into the casual gamers mind, an area where it has never really done well, than I think you can call natal a success. Of course, the straight definition is if the two products make money then thats all that matters.

It only needs one killer app. The problem is that will probably be some stupid sports game like boxing or tennis. Exactly what I don't want to play on the Wii either. At best it _could_ enhance the type of games I play (MMOs and RPGs), but really not much else.

Swinging a sword around gets old fast, just say playing Wii games got old fast.

Not a day one buy for me, might not even be a buy for me at all. However, if it gets some Wii/PS3 people consolidated onto the PS3, that works.