By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - General Discussion - (US) Economic Reality Check

http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2010/03/economic-reality-check.html

Once again just perusing the latest updates from the St. Louis Fed…

Many people get all wrapped around the axle about debt to GDP statistics. This is a complete Red Herring as comparing our Federal Government’s debt to the productivity of the nation is exactly the same as comparing your personal debt to the productivity of your neighborhood. They are unrelated.

What is completely related and totally relevant is DEBT to INCOME. In fact, in regards to debt, income is the only thing that really matters. Our Nation’s Income is crashing as shown in this chart expressed in year over year (yoy) change in Billions of dollars:



Our Current Government Receipts rose to approximately $2.5 Trillion and has collapsed to less than $2.2 Trillion, again expressed here in yoy change in Billions:



At the same time that our receipts are falling, our Federal Net Outlays are in an exponential growth phase, spiraling up in a now very out-of-control fashion. This is THE most important chart of the modern era! When this chart begins to roll over, and it will, it will mark the end of the last leg of support for our debt crippled economy:



The combination of rising outlays and falling receipts produces a negative Government Savings rate, clearly not sustainable but on an accelerating downward plummet into the depths of nation changing events that are right on the nearby horizon:



You are being told that the economy is improving, the only “improvement” is the amount being spent by the government. Take a look at the Consumption of Fixed Capital, one of the components of GNP:



Sales are up, REALLY? Below is a chart of Real Final Sales of Domestic Products yoy in Billions. Not only is it not positive, but it is still crashing:



The tell in regards to sales is in the tax collected on sales. State and Local Government Sales Taxes are now down about 5% on a year over year basis:



Here’s the same chart expressed in yoy change in Billions of dollars – no change of path, not even a wiggle or a waiver:



How about Imports and Exports? Aren’t we being told that they are increasing again? Absolutely not the case, again, nothing but collapse. Take a look at Exports of Goods and Services expressed in yoy change in Billions:



Now take a look at the yoy change in Real Imports of Goods and Services:



Historic collapse, take a look at the magnitude of the collapse and how far back those charts go in time. You can talk up the “recovery” all you want, you can call it a “recession” all you want, but lip service does not change what is occurring on those charts and to our debt saturated economy.

We let the Central Bankers take over our money supply and we let them back all our money with debt at their benefit and at our expense. It is time to change that equation around!

Please support Freedom’s Vision by registering for the Swarm, and bee sure to tell your friends. Do it for your country and do it for future generations.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

Around the Network

No posts yet? I guess I am not the only one who is confused.



 

Doesn't take into account inflation, therefore has a huge bias towards near past. Is in fact near useless because of it.



What does this mean for me?
Is this just a thread to blame Obama again?



Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."

Rath said:
Doesn't take into account inflation, therefore has a huge bias towards near past. Is in fact near useless because of it.

You don't know what inflation is, do you?

SaviorX said:
What does this mean for me?
Is this just a thread to blame Obama again?

 Blame Obama?  Of course not.  Blame the whole government and the FED.   It all started before Obama was born.  However, he (and Congress) has accelerated the problem greatly by increasing government spending well beyond government income.   Toss in an artificially low interest rate, a reduction in T bond sales, inflated bank monetary assets, monetized debt programs, etc...and the proverbial shit is going to hit the fan.

 

The only people in Washington that are denying this are those either making a profit from it or too damn scared to admit the reality for fear of not getting re-elected.  Or they're just ignorant.

 



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Around the Network

It doesn't matter if these charts are useful or not. The USA is in deep trouble ecenomically thanks to spiralling debt both within your government and by the people themselves. Everyones living beyond their means and it wont last forever.



This is why New Zealand is in my future.



@Viper. Yes I do. Money has become worth less over time and so of course the fluctuations in terms of billions of dollars has grown greater, a billion dollars has become worth a lot less over time.

Basically these graphs show an exponential curve - well all of them apart from the one not measured in dollars (% change) and the two which take inflation into account (2005 dollars) - which is exactly what you would expect with a reasonably steady percentage decrease in the value of money.



Rath, look at the last two years.. those massive changes are not just compared to some value from 50 years ago. Those as changes like the US has NEVER seen.

There has to be some concern for entering uncharted waters.



TheRealMafoo said:
Rath, look at the last two years.. those massive changes are not just compared to some value from 50 years ago. Those as changes like the US has NEVER seen.

There has to be some concern for entering uncharted waters.

Oh, I know the recession was huge and all that. These graphs are still statistical bullshit though which always annoys me.