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Forums - Sales Discussion - Why the Wii Won't sell 80m+

Kwaad on 31 March 2007

I'm gonna spoil the fun here... A great example of a "fad" Furby (if you dont know what it is... you should) Sold 27MILLION units over a 12 month period. Furby was well... furby. My point on that is... A 'fad' will sell like hot-cakes. After about a year... furby stopped selling. I wanna see what Wii is doing in 10 months (january 2008) That will be the best way to tell how "good" it is selling.



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Kwaad on 31 March 2007

I also wanna mention the first 6-12 months of launch on the N64. It's sales blew the PS1 out of the water. (launches aligned) Nintendo Consoles (especially NA) ten to sell REALLY good for the first year. (over the competition) Yet after that first year... the sales vanish. (where to? I dont know) Look at modern nintendo sales. (N64 and GameCube) The First holiday season after launch on nintendo consoles are their best, and everything goes downhill from there. Sony consoles, first holiday season is low, compared to their 2nd holiday season... after launch.



PSN ID: Kwaad


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stewacide on 31 March 2007

A Wii isn't like a Furby because the Wii is a platform for software. Once the install base is large enough, and especially once it has a large enough edge over the competition, the momentum will carry it for there. It's fine for the Wii to be an irrational "fad" at the start: that's what every console maker seeks to make their system at launch (when it's as expensive as its ever going to be with the fewest and worst games it's ever going to have). Everything I've seen and everything I "feel" tells me this Wii "fad" isn't going to burn out any time soon (i.e. it'll carry it well through this year): and if it ever does it'll have established an insurmountable lead anyhow.



stewacide on 31 March 2007

Kwaad said: I also wanna mention the first 6-12 months of launch on the N64. It's sales blew the PS1 out of the water. (launches aligned) Nintendo Consoles (especially NA) ten to sell REALLY good for the first year. (over the competition) Yet after that first year... the sales vanish. (where to? I dont know) Look at modern nintendo sales. (N64 and GameCube) The First holiday season after launch on nintendo consoles are their best, and everything goes downhill from there. Sony consoles, first holiday season is low, compared to their 2nd holiday season... after launch.
The Wii is *VASTLY* outselling the GC over the same period. It's not even close (even with the Wii so supply constrained). Any comparison you're trying to draw just isn't there: these aren't all Nintendo fanboys clamouring for Wiis!!!



Kwaad on 31 March 2007

I waited in line for 12 hours for a Wii. Dont even talk about people trying to get a Wii. I talked to each and every one of them. Most were buying it... just like a "trend" item. EDIT: http://www.vgcharts.org/aconscomps.php?name1=Wii&name2=N64&type=0&align=0 EDIT2: The N64 was VASTLY outselling the Wii... and got blown away by the PS1



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stof on 31 March 2007

Kwaad said: I also wanna mention the first 6-12 months of launch on the N64. It's sales blew the PS1 out of the water. (launches aligned) Nintendo Consoles (especially NA) ten to sell REALLY good for the first year. (over the competition) Yet after that first year... the sales vanish. (where to? I dont know) Look at modern nintendo sales. (N64 and GameCube) The First holiday season after launch on nintendo consoles are their best, and everything goes downhill from there. Sony consoles, first holiday season is low, compared to their 2nd holiday season... after launch.
Except that your trying to shoehorn facts in to an argument you've already chosen. Saying "Nintendo Consoles or Sony Consoles doesn't make any sense, as each console is different. There have been two sony consoles. One was a brand new entry into the console market, that sold slowly at first while people awaited the next Nintendo. The second Sony console sold fantastically right out of the gate breaking 5 Mil in NA after 13 months. ( oh yeah, and a third one, that despite the legacy of 2 100 million plus consoles, has so far stagnated in the two markets where it's been out for more than a month) There have been a whole wack of Nintendo consoles, some have dominated, others have flopped. The Gamecubes sales fell out from under it after only 2 months. So while in NA the Gamecube sold 147 K during it's first January and February Combined, the Wii sold 864 k in the same period. If you can give me a logical reason for why the Wii will follow the sales trends of the Gamecube, 64, Virtual Boy, SNES, or NES, I'm listening. As for your 64 comparison, the 64 launched 2 months earlier in the holiday season. But once again, in January and February, it sold 364 K, the Wii, 864 K. Infact there are lots of reasons for why the 64 and the Wii are in entirely different places, but I think that's been covered in several other threads



I'm a mod, come to me if there's mod'n to do. 

Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.

stewacide on 31 March 2007

In large measure, what we're seeing isn't the Wii doing unprecedentedly well, but the 360 and PS3 self-destructing. There are a couple points I think people aren't appreciating as they should: - The Wii, remember, is actually the most expensive console Nintendo has ever launched (all their previous home systems launched at $200 USD). To raise the price by $50 above what consumers are used to was a leap of faith on Nintendo's part. To raise it by $200-$400 in the case of the 360 and PS3 is *SUICIDE* - The 360 is *NOT* doing well. It's just trending with the Xbox1, which was a loser console in the end, that was also up against two next-gen competitors its whole life. - To just look at Japanese charts, or North America, etc. misses the point that the Wii is dominating *globally*. I.e. the margins over say the 360 in North America or PS3 in Japan aren't extraordinary, but being a "global" console vs. the increasingly regional PS3 and 360 means it gains against them individually even faster as a global software platform. - The main thing holding Nintendo back is production (vs. the 360 and PS3 which are selling to everyone who wants one). Nintendo clearly didn't see the Wii's success coming; it seems like they've planned for more GC-like numbers. That will change as Nintendo brings more factories online. And given my own personal impressions of how well the Wii sells itself (everyone who plays one has to buy one), I don't think they'll be meeting demand any time soon.



Kwaad on 31 March 2007

stof said: Except that your trying to shoehorn facts in to an argument you've already chosen. Saying "Nintendo Consoles or Sony Consoles doesn't make any sense, as each console is different. There have been two sony consoles. One was a brand new entry into the console market, that sold slowly at first while people awaited the next Nintendo. The second Sony console sold fantastically right out of the gate breaking 5 Mil in NA after 13 months. ( oh yeah, and a third one, that despite the legacy of 2 100 million plus consoles, has so far stagnated in the two markets where it's been out for more than a month) There have been a whole wack of Nintendo consoles, some have dominated, others have flopped. The Gamecubes sales fell out from under it after only 2 months. So while in NA the Gamecube sold 147 K during it's first January and February Combined, the Wii sold 864 k in the same period. If you can give me a logical reason for why the Wii will follow the sales trends of the Gamecube, 64, Virtual Boy, SNES, or NES, I'm listening.
It is still selling out, is good, but when you consider the "fad" thing associated with it. (for now) it's sales arent THAT phenomononical. As I said early. Furby sold 24million in 1 year. That is the POWER of a 'fad' my point on that is, Wii sales are gonna be blown out of porportion untill it's sitting on sales. Everything points to that. The Wii is not doing much better than N64. The PS3 is still following all PS trends so far. Horrible launch, followed by a medocore first x-mas after launch, and after that, is when sales start to skyrocket. Everything is following the way it has.



PSN ID: Kwaad


I fly this flag in victory!

mrstickball on 31 March 2007

stewacide said: In large measure, what we're seeing isn't the Wii doing unprecedentedly well, but the 360 and PS3 self-destructing. There are a couple points I think people aren't appreciating as they should: - The Wii, remember, is actually the most expensive console Nintendo has ever launched (all their previous home systems launched at $200 USD). To raise the price by $50 above what consumers are used to was a leap of faith on Nintendo's part. To raise it by $200-$400 in the case of the 360 and PS3 is *SUICIDE* - The 360 is *NOT* doing well. It's just trending with the Xbox1, which was a loser console in the end, that was also up against two next-gen competitors its whole life. - To just look at Japanese charts, or North America, etc. misses the point that the Wii is dominating *globally*. I.e. the margins over say the 360 in North America or PS3 in Japan aren't extraordinary, but being a "global" console vs. the increasingly regional PS3 and 360 means it gains against them individually even faster as a global software platform. - The main thing holding Nintendo back is production (vs. the 360 and PS3 which are selling to everyone who wants one). Nintendo clearly didn't see the Wii's success coming; it seems like they've planned for more GC-like numbers. That will change as Nintendo brings more factories online. And given my own personal impressions of how well the Wii sells itself (everyone who plays one has to buy one), I don't think they'll be meeting demand any time soon.
1. The Wii isn't the most expensive. It's at the same level the NES bundle was when it came out ($249.99 with a game). Also, it's $200 (or eqivilent) in Japan. 2. The 360 is trending about 100% above in Japan (about 40k units YTD) and is leading Xbox one's 2nd year (starting in Nov second year) by 500,000 units in 4 months in NA. 3. As I stated, Nintendo already was quoted as saying they believed the Wii would sell at 40-50m units in it's lifetime. Thats double what the GC did, so they were already anticipating a higher demand vs. GCs lifetime sales. Again, my whole point of the topic is: Nintendo WILL be held back by production for quite some time. It is my OPINION and I believe its mathmatically very difficult for the Wii to sell in the insane numbers some sugguest, as by the time that the Wii actually has the grand capacity, sales will start lagging behind the PS3 and 360 due to HD penetration, and the strength of titles. Also, I'll post a huge analysis of why I believe the Wii will sell as I have stated and believed, along with the 360 and PS3. Complete with market shares year over year for each of the 3 markets to show you the mathmatics behind how I believe the Wii will sell.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

stof on 31 March 2007

stewacide said: - The 360 is *NOT* doing well. It's just trending with the Xbox1, which was a loser console in the end, that was also up against two next-gen competitors its whole life.
The 360 isn't destructing. It's doing quite well in NA. Yes, it only this holiday season surpassed the xbox in launch aligned sales. But when you consider the massive launch numbers the xbox did (1,6 mill in 2 months), it's actually sold a fair bit better since then, with a significant increas this holiday and post holiday period. Add in a flailing PS3 and things are looking pretty good for the 360. Kwaad, the PS1's poor initial sales were because it was a brand new entry into the console market. The PS3's poor sales come inspite of the now established PS legacy. Add in that the PS1 could have poor sales as it came out a year ahead of the 64, and offered a format that allowed cheaper dev costs and games the competition just couldn't do (and the difference between a CD and a cartidge are a hell of a lot bigger than the difference between blu-ray and DVD) And Kwaad, remember when everyone (including me) called you a troll? Continue to call the Wii a furby despite the fact that it's a nonsense argument and has been thuroughly discredited and well... you'll have earned that title again.



I'm a mod, come to me if there's mod'n to do. 

Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.