five year? really? this is like believeing that the PS3 will last 10 years just because Sony said so.

The GB was sold from 1989 to 1998 (so 9 years) when the GBC was released which that existed until 2001 with the GBA (3 years). So the gameboy as a whole lasted 12 years. Also, they both lasted well into the next generation of handhelds. The GBA was relatively a flop and only lasted til 2004, for 3 years on the market (plus a little extra while it was phased out).

For home consoles, NES was released in 1983 in Japan, and the SNES was released in 1990 (7 years) but the NES wasn't discontinued in Japan until 2003. The N64 launched in 1996 (in Japan again) so that was another 6 years. Finally the GC launched in 2001, for the first console to ever be launched 5 years after the release of the previous system. The Wii repeated that same time span of 5 years.

So, if you actually look at it, Nintendo will gladly have the exclusive life of the system last for 7-10 years. So long as they can continue to put out new experiences on the system, and so long as the consumer buys the product Nintendo will hold off launching a new system. Also, you'll notice the only systems that had a "lifespan" of less than 6 years were those systems that were relative failures.

for handhelds, console are differents.

nintendo since the NES followed a 5 years cycle.

for handhelds, console are differents.

nintendo since the NES followed a 5 years cycle.

I'd look to TGS this year, actually. If Nintendo attends, then they're probably going to announce hardware

Nintendo never really "followed" some sort of cycle, though. They were always put under pressure to release new hardware because of competition. Ideally a console manufacturer wants their console to stay on the market as long as possible (which is why SONY is always talking about that 10 year life-cycle: they have to make up for the losses during the first years). Nintendo has always been the last company to launch its console, actually (since the NES, that is) but as soon as competition impacts their sales so much that they can't ignore it they launch new hardware. Nintendo let the Gameboy experience a 10 year lifespan because they could afford to and they waited to release the SNES as long as possible.

It doesn't really make a lot of sense to follow a 5 year lifecylce, where did this "X year cycle" thing come from? SONY said they wanted the PS3 to last 10 years to profit more which is completely reasonable but I don't think you can assume companies are following a certain cycle. It doesn't make a lot of sense. You should release your hardware whenever you expect to gain the most net income.

Back to topic: If Nintendo shows new hardware this year then because it sees tremendous room for growth in a lot of markets and because its old hardware doesn't perform well enough anymore. So basically this reduces things to a new handheld as the japanese market doesn't offer a lot of room for growth anymore. Some sort of "Wii Lite" might also be worth considering: Same console, different look. Announcing a new home console would be crazy with the huge amount of Wii games in development but some sort of Wii redesign could be possible (like the PS3 Slim) if they are able to reduce manufacturing costs by releasing a redesign.

I suspect that Nintendo is weighing quite a few factors inside of the company to determine the timing of their next handheld and console release. Some of this will obviously be dependant on technology being that Nintendo will want to produce a product that excites people on the level that the Wii did; and everything from the processor and memory to the user interface may be dependant on emerging technology becoming inexpensive enough and high enough quality to base a product on.

Other (obvious) factors are things like how they will transition developers and consumers from the current Wii to their next generation system. To a certain extent, Nintendo has the option to enhance their Wii API allowing for some functionality of their next system to be exposed to current developers (if it is running on the new system) in a way that is analogous to the Gameboy -> Gamboy Color transition; but this would have to be something that Nintendo would need to see value in. On top of this, if gamers remain (generally speaking) happy with the level of graphics and user interface available on the Wii it will be difficult to convert them; so the next generation system needs a "hook" that drives adoption.

If you notice, nothing I said suggests a particular time and I suspect that the same (general) thought is going through many executives. In other words, the next generation Nintendo system will be announced when Nintendo thinks that it and the market are ready.

QFT.

Nintendo has never launched first. (and in fact has frequently resisted gen changes)

The first place company has never launched first.

Why do some people expect Nintendo to launch first when they are in first place?

I am saying E3. Microsoft and Sony are going to bring out their motion controls out for the Fall and could possible overshadow the Wii. I think Nintendo is going to stay 1 step ahead and move on to the next innovation.

we've seen new Nintendo hardware at every E3 since 2005....

E3 2010?