Oh, and nintendo could've been brought into the discussion if someone would've said something like:

"Well, the Arc is pretty similar to the Wiimote, so I think that Natal will sell more since it will be seen as something different instead of more of the same"

But alas, all of the things pepole told about the Wii is "lol Wii sold more lol!" (in a more civilized manner), which has nothing to do with the discussion which isn't about the motion control market as a whole, but about who, out of Sony and MS, will sell more of their motion controller.

Oh this is the HD motion console competition. Sony will win on units sold.

Meanwhile, M+ will be ~50M, Balance Board ~50M, Wiimotes 150M+.

There are key players in the motion control war. Natal and Arc are not merely competing with eachother, but the whole point is to compete with Nintendo. Nintendo is very relevant to this discussion as it could be the factor that causes both others to fail.

I don't see how it's irrevelant to mention Wii in a thread about the "upcoming motion control war". If Wii isn't a part of that, I don't know what to say...

In figuring out which of the two (Arc/Natal) will be most successful it's also relevant to look at the Wii and see what made the Wii motion controls successful.

Let's say we have a discussion about the future of Wii's online system. Would mentioning Xbox Live or PSN in that discussion be irrelevant in every way?

Niiice, completely gloss over what I said and come up with the same rubbish, this isn't a generic xxx motion controller thread, it's specifically PS3 vs 360, the only reason wii fans are in here talking is because you lot can't resist bringing wii into threads were it does'nt belong. I didn't call you a troll I said you were trolling, which imo you are.

I fucking wish.

I do think Wii is relevant to the discussion, in a way, because Sony and MS are not competing against each other, they are competing against Nintendo in this matter.

Fact is either Natal or Arc will likely budge core players from one HD console to the other. They'll still buy the system that has the games that they want. For example, no one will care if GT5 uses the wand for driving like Mariokart. No 360 owner or potential owner is suddenly going to go, OMG GT5 with motion! I have to get that. If they cared about that they'd be playing F1 with motion now. And if they cared about GT5 they'd already be getting a PS3. Nor would a potential PS3 owner pass up GT5 for a 360 driving game using Natal. No chance.

The entire purpose of these devices is to get potential or current Wii owners to buy HD instead. But for that to happen it doesn't matter which tech is better, or even cheaper, it matters which offers an experience more compelling than what Wii does.

I also do not agree with Pachter's definition of "winner" in this case. It is not which sells the most, it is about expanding the market for each console. (into a market that the currently dominated by the ***)

Suppose:
The PS3 arc sells to 20M existing PS3 owners and does not increase overall PS3 sales.
and
Natal is largely ignored by the hardcore (5M sales), but expands the 360 market by an additional 10M users.

I would think the Natal is the clear winner in this case, not the PS3 with more sales of motion controllers.

We're in the thread because it's titled "motion control winner" (Wii) and it's about who will win the motion control war (Wii). Neither Natal nor Arc will 'win' simply by selling more than the other, just like XBox or Gamecube could not win by simply selling more than the other, their main fight is with the dominating player, Nintendo.

As some people as already said, the price could be a factor if the difference is big enough, but I believe it's the games that will decide the winner. What both Sony and Microsoft needs to do is have their own "Wii Sports" killer app ready at release.
Sony could get a small headstart because of the...eh....pet simulator (I forgot it's name!!!), which comes bundled with the camera.