It will last until the next thing kills it off.

^This. Probably DD is my guess. I would like it to be cartridges though, 'cause I'm an OG like that.

Ps4 will likely employ the blue ray tech currently in Sony dev labs to make blue ray disks store a full terrabyte of data. Already blue ray disks can hold several hundred gigabytes, they just dont work with currentps3 blue ray players, the lazer technology the've developed can read and write far more layers onto the blueray disk. Blue ray will grow and evolve and will continue to be the optical standard because digital distribution is NOT the future. A small fraction of consoles ever connect to there respective networks, and a smaller fraction of those purchase digital content. You cant return digital purchases, no refunds, no resale. Americans like things and the problem with digital distribution is you feel robbed immediately. You have nothing in your hands and it feels like they gave you something you paid too much for.

anyhow...blue ray is the future and later versions will read and write much faster and hold more data.

In a few countries around the world, but that figure is increasing every year with greater investment in infrastructure. Cisco for example is increasing the speed of their switches considerably every year for instance.

I give BD 10 active years and another 3-5 winding down. There is NO way in the world that Digital Downloads will ever replace a disc based format even with 200mps speeds, they will both co-exist and i suspect holographic based disc will be next.

Only 25% of the world even use the internet let alone download their film collections on it.

True sony has a history of equiping thier consoles with the latest technology the fact is there is really no viable alternative to replace blu-rays yet. And I'm not sure if there will be any in 5 years when the next gen is starting to get in gear.

I think all the nex gen consoles may be Blu Ray if only to give the nex gen owners the chance to watch high def physical media.

I seroiusly doubt DVD will be overtaken anytime soon tho.

Yeah, in select areas in countries the size of Rhode Island.   Realistically this is several, several years off from being anywhere close to 'mainstream'  and even further from getting people to opt for it over Physical media.    Digital distribution will stamp it's place in the coming years but it's certainly not going to take the lead anytime soon.

Blu-ray tech should be cheap when the next gen starts. I don't see any reason why one of the big three wouldn't want to take advantage of the extra space and media functionality.... unless one of them is stupid enough to do something like DL only...

Bluray will last as long as th industry dont find a purpose where Blurays are to small.

Because aslong as you cant offer a good way to use the new media noone will buy it.

And bluray can have capacitys up to hundreds of gigabyte with dozends of layers.

Bluray will be improved in the future. And I dont see good reasons to have a new media. Atleast the next decade. I have a feeling that Bluray will last pretty long. Sony has no reason to force another type of discs in peoples living rooms. Bluray will probably last way longer then DVD or CD. I dont know if new technologys like a new type of 3d will require TBs of Data but aslong as the technology dont need more then 500gb-600gb (20 layer). We definetly wont see a new technology.