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The poll question is really difficult to answer due to alot of unknowns, the biggest one being: Will Xbox start putting bigger focus into exclusive JP games, or at least bigger gamepass deals for Japan than they have been recently? Will Xbox invest in more JP first party studios, just 2nd party deals and Tango, or just Tango? Will Xbox be able to get larger Series X shipments to Japan anytime soon?

Here is what we do know:

  • Famitsu doesn't track sales from certain Japanese retailers, most notably Amazon Japan, so all Xbox Series consoles sold there go untracked. As many as 20k+ Xbox Series may have already been sold via Amazon Japan so far this gen, untracked by Famitsu. Unless Xbox releases official Xbox Series Japan numbers at some point, we may never know the true sales there.
  • Series S demand in Japan appears to be slowing. A friend told me recently that Series S has dropped from like top 5 on Yodabashi's website (one of Japan's biggest electronics retailers) to like 300th place, despite still being in stock. Series S will soon enough reach the point where it is no longer selling out as soon as it is restocked, where anyone who wants one will be able to go into a store that carries Xbox in Japan and walk out with one, and when that happens it is a sign that initial demand for Series S is close to being met. 
  • Series X has recently received only small restocks in Japan, and many gamers in Japan seem to be waiting for a Series X currently
  • Xbox currently has no 2nd party JP exclusives rumored for Xbox Series, only the Kojima cloud only one
  • Xbox currently only has just 1 first party JP studio, Tango Gameworks, which seems to be planning to make a larger number of smaller games in the future, instead of being one big AAA team
  • Xbox Series sales are currently tracking towards passing OG Xbox, but not Xbox 360, though the pace could slow considerably in the near future with Series S demand seemingly being nearly met

Taking all of that into account, I do think it will exceed OG Xbox, perhaps even by a fairly considerable margin, but 360 seems out of reach unless Xbox surprises us with some big JP 2nd party exclusives soon, or unless they acquire some big JP studios or a whole JP publisher like Sega, if that happens, 360's lifetime sales may come into reach and possibly even be exceeded with a Sega acquisition in particular.

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 26 May 2022