By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
Torpoleon said:

@yo33331 I definitely don't think they will shop 8 million in Q1 2022 (4M at best is my guess). I just think that Nintendo will have a stronger holiday this year due to a stronger lineup and a new model. They pretty much have to have a better holiday than last year in order for their FY projection to be met. Of course, it's possible for the projection to be revised, but I'm still sticking to my belief that Nintendo will meet their projection for this FY.

Also, I didn't say that I felt a Pro model would release in 2023. I was talking about the FY ending on March 2023, which runs from April 2022-March 2023 (so I would see a Pro model launching alongside Zelda around the holidays in 2022). I wouldn't rule out a successor launching in 2025, but it does possibly seem more likely for it to be Holiday 2024. Can't see it being any sooner though. One thing to keep in mind is that a lot of big series are getting new entries this year, next year and likely the year after on Switch. It's going to take time for those series to appear again on a successor, so I wouldn't want Nintendo to rush out a successor.

@Chicho It's true that what goes up must come down, but that doesn't mean that Switch sales will drop like a rock. It just means that we could see slower drops, like we have started to see now. Switch will probably be down in 2021 vs 2020 and probably 2022 vs 2021, and so on, but I can't see it being tremendously big drops or "falling off a cliff", at least not until a successor launches (especially if it is backwards compatible, which it really should be).

Ultimately, I'd like to see Switch sales turn out something like this (if a successor launches in Holiday 2024):

End of Dec 2021: ~25 million (LT: ~105.59 million)
End of Dec 2022: ~22 million (LT: ~128 million)- Switch Pro launching around the holidays. BOTW 2, Splatoon 3, Mario + Rabbids, Arceus, Kirby?, DK? and more
End of Dec 2023: ~18 million (LT: ~146 million)- Pokemon Gen 9, Metroid Prime 4, Fire Emblem?, Bayo 3?, Monolith Soft?, Pikmin?, some more HD remakes?, Price Drop? and more?
End of Dec 2024: ~9 million (LT: ~155 million)- Switch successor launches in November. Let's Go, Johto on Switch 1? Maybe more ports and remakes? And more?

After that, I could see the Switch coughing up a few million more over the next 2 years or so and passing the PS2 before its 10th birthday (if Switch 2 takes off in popularity I could see the Switch being discontinued sometime in 2026). Maybe it will even get another price drop.

Also, the games that I listed are just some of the games I could see releasing in those years. It's entirely possible that there could be more than what I listed (or less), which obviously changes things. It's not an easy thing to predict.

It does get harder to imagine Nintendo waiting until Holiday 2025 for a successor though because I can't imagine what else Nintendo could release for the Switch at that point. Hopefully people don't mind waiting a while for the successor to get a Zelda game.

You are way too optimistic. Everyone on the web talks about there will not be any Pro model because of the OLED model. Because now was the last good moment to announce Pro model and they didn't do it. Also only 1 year after their last new model - OLED ? absurd. And if history is any indication Nintendo are not waiting anything after 2023 for launching a successor. Also after specific point, big games are no longer helping console to boost it's sales. Just like the other consoles that passed 100M and getting some big games after that, Switch too won't receive boost or it will be very slight, if some new big hit game come out let's say from next year on. Most of the people that are hardcore fans have already bought the switch, and most of the fans of the big nintendo franchises have already bought it.

And what you want is not gonna happen. I wanted for the PS4 to reach PS2 also. In fact there was a way, however Sony didn't move their finger about it.

Nintendo won't do it either. Price cuts are a past thing now. The price cuts were something done until end of PS2 era. After that price cuts are around once or at best twice in 10 years. See Wii, one price cut in what 2010 ? and that was it. 3DS - the same, one price cut. PS4, XB1, and pretty much every other console in the last 10 years did get only one price cut in some point in their life. Even PS3 and 360 after their slim revisions in 2009/2010 they didn't get any more official price cuts. The switch has Lite model. This is the form of price cut that it got in it's second year and that it will be. At best they can lower the price by 50$ maybe 2 years from now when the sales will be much lower than they are now. So yours 2 or 3 more price cuts just won't happen.

Also you projections about the next few years for the switch are even more than optimistic. Now in the age of smartphones and when the people learned to change their model/tech after 2 or 3 years this little to no drops of the sales year on year will not happen. It will be something like 25M this year, and 15M next year, and then the successor launches which will put the switch at something like 6-8M and then 1-2 for its last year. The same happened with PS4, and if there were some other big consoles in the recent years with 100+M sales it probably would be the same. The Wii back in 2010 did the same, from 17M to 11M to 5M in just 2 years, or the DS 20M to 8M to 3M. Or the PS4 now, from 14M to 8M last year, and 2M this year. Switch last big year is this. Next year will be mediocre around 15M. In fact the decline has already started. As I stated in my previous comment Switch was on fire in the beginning of the year and from almost 500K per week now is close to 350K per week, by august it will drop to probably 300K per week. After this it will have boost because of the holiday season however with the full stock of the new consoles by next year, and by reaching more and more the saturation point switch will do around 200-250K per week starting next year.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 10 July 2021