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For what it's worth, I was the #1 predictor at Era. I was the only one there who predicted that total Switch+PS5+XBS sales would be under 1M, which it would have to be if the total hardware revenue was only $296M (my revised prediction here, posted after the ones I posted at Era, were a bit higher). In fact, it looks like total HW might not have exceeded 900k units in April. It looks like the Switch probably had about 55-60% market share, leaving Sony & MS to split the rest. Another poster at Era suggested total PS5+XBS sales were at least 330k total, likely favoring the PS5 at least slightly.

Figuring the exact numbers from the revenue figures isn't an exact science. We'd still have the unknown factor that is the exact split between the models of the Switch, PS5, & XBS. Based on the admittedly inexact figures we've been getting it looks like the average spending per console for the PS5+XBS combined looks to be on the order of $450, give or take, which assuming 330k units between the two of them would mean they took up about half of April's HW revenue. Based on Nintendo shipment data, given the average split between the hybrid and Lite models in NA, we're looking at around $270 on average per Switch sold in recent months. So, even if the PS4 & XBO sold zero units in April the ceiling for the Switch would be 546k if the PS5+XBO floor is 330k, assuming the Lite's share Switch sales wasn't higher than average. If the PS4 & XBO sold something like 40k combined (less than 40% what the 360 & PS3 sold total in April 2014) and also averaged $300/unit between the two of them (revenue per system assumes only in-production models sold at MSRP), the Switch sold somewhere around the 500k mark.

Overall, April could've been something close to this:

Switch: $135M (500k units @ $270/unit)
PS5+XBS: $148.5M (330k units @ $450/unit)
PS4+XBO: $12M (40k units @ $300/unit)
Total: $295.5M (870k units @ ~$340/unit)

That still gets us within rounding range of the $296M total revenue figure.

Of course, we could fudge the numbers to get different results while still ending up with the ~$296M revenue figure. If the PS5+XBS unit total was about 300k, then assuming $450/unit for them, $270/unit for the Switch, and my 40k @ $300/unit for the PS4+XBO, the Switch would be around 550k. If the PS5+XBO unit total was, say, 350k, then the Switch figure would be about 470k if we retain the same assumptions from the previous sentence. Unless the PS5+XBS total was considerably less than 330k and/or broke heavily towards PS5D and Series S, and/or the Lite was a much higher portion of Switch sales than normal, the total amount of hardware units for April is extremely unlikely to be any higher than around 900k given the known total revenue.

If only we had some kind of indication of what the PS4 & XBO were actually selling (October was the last time we got any kind of numbers for them), we could reduce those error bars a good bit. But even then, there' still going to be a non-trivial margin of error because we'll never quite know what the exact model split is each month for each system. Hopefully we get more concrete numbers at some point, but until then this should give us some ballpark figures to work with.


In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").