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noshten on 23 November 2020
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Megiddo said:
noshten said:

It's between Square and Konami, it really does depend on how well Momotaro does. 

I would personally compare it to Super Mario Party, which launched far lower with 126.275 but is legging and bundling its way to 2 million. Mototaro's LTD floor is 1.5 million at this point

Wait, unless you're expecting Konami to take a fiscal loss by selling the game for 3k yen off when bundling with a joycon set as Nintendo did with Super Mario Party then I have to think you meant ceiling and not floor there, right?

Super Mario Party would have achieved 1.5M without bundles, just would have taken longer.

Momotaro will end up being the biggest holiday release this year, only New Horizon and Ring Fit Adventure are going to outsell it during the holidays. Based on how games like Taiko & Fishing Spirits have performed and it's reception, I think 1.5M lifetime is definitely the lower limit. With a first shipment of 500K that's is going to starting to sell-out at most retailers by week 50, there is no doubt that during the height of the holidays Momotaro will be doing substantial numbers(>100K Weeks for example). Shipped numbers for the year will approach 1 million, high sell-through and being a family friendly game I can see it being in the Top 30 for a while. Taiko and Fishing Spirits only recently stopped being part of the Top 30 and one of the those games launched in 2018. 

Megiddo said:
noshten said:

Super Mario Party would have achieved 1.5M without bundles, just would have taken longer.

Taiko and Fishing Spirits only recently stopped being part of the Top 30 and one of the those games launched in 2018. 

Being part of the top 30 just means that they're selling 2-3k a week. How many weeks of selling 2-3k a week will Momotaro need to have to hit 1.5 million after it sells 500k for the holidays?

You misread, Momotaro will sell far more than 500K by the end of the year. Like I said it will be close to 1 million shipped for the year. 

The best comparison for Momotaro is Super Mario Party, so don't be surprised when Momotaro sells an additional 500K in 2021.  

  • Launch: Super Mario Party - 126.275
  • 2018: Super Mario Party - 764.853
  • 2019: Super Mario Party - 497.862
  • 2020: Super Mario Party - 332.310

Not sure why you are bringing up Fishing Spirits and Taiko. I just used them as an example of games that started low and have remained in the Top 30 for a long time due to their family friendly nature. Momotaro is very likely to have a bigger launch than either game sold during it's first year on the market, and both these games launched during Obon, not late in the year like Momotaro. 

Taiko:

  • 2018: Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'N' Fun! - 270.415
  • 2019: Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'N' Fun! - 150.167
  • 2020: Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'N' Fun! - 101.707*

Fishing Spirits:

  • 2019: Fishing Spirits - 336.995
  • 2020: Fishing Spirits - 167.246*
Last edited by noshten - on 23 November 2020