This was my first longer analysis piece. I know there are some points I didn't cover into the closest details possible. I mainly wanted to see what it would take for the PS4 to have any chance of outselling the PS2. Everything needs to go right for the PS4 to even have a slim chance, with a $100 price cut this year, while the PS5 needs have a start as slow as the PS3.
if this article does well enough, I'll look into doing longer analysis pieces more often. As most of you know the Gap Charts are bite size articles, which is the main original sales articles I do. Other than posting the weekly hardware estimates.
Thank you all who took the time to read the article.
As I said in one of the comments:
what about the case of PS1 and PS2 ? where the PS2 was very successful console and despite this PS1 still sold well after the launch of PS2 ? around 20M or more (which for the sales back then which PS1 had - 80M that was 25% of the total sales more) which now would be around 30M more (25% of ~120 = 30M) which would pretty close
and there are some points that PS4 needs to hit yes, however I think some of them are almost given.
PS5/PS4 enough price difference as opposite to PS3/PS4 100$ difference - it's almost sure that PS5 will be at least 500 maybe even 600 so there will be at least 200$ and probably even 300$. The casual gamers and families will buy the PS4 and the hardcore real gamers will buy PS5. Why the one has to be weak for the other to be success ? I don't get it. They can sell simultaneously well.
Price cut - As opposite to PS3, PS4 don't have expensive (for the time it was, now it's older and cheaper technology) blu ray player or CELL cpu (the amd one is cheaper) Therefore it would be easier for sony to do a pricecut to 199$ or even 149$ in future than it was for them for the PS3. However if they actually want and will do is other topic .. I am saying just that with the PS3 they would probably loose money at 149 or 199$ and for the PS4 they will probably make money on these prices.
The other points that are needed and are not so difficult to make for sony are good game and holiday bundles for PS4, as well as putting money in marketing, just like they did for PS2. I don't know if you remeber but besides PS3, in 2006, 2007 and 2008 sony heavily marketed PS2 as well, even on every stage up until 2009 E3 they talked for sometime for the PS2, how successful has been and what new (casual and sports) games PS2 will get in the near future.
Sony don't need PS5 to have slow start or to be bad selling console for the PS4 to continue selling.
It just needs enough price difference between the two like 300$, around 2-3 years continiuos support for 3rd party games for the PS4 after PS5 launch, good marketing for the console at least 2 years after the launch of PS5 and good console bundles with 1 or 2 more major (100$) pricecuts (1 this year to 199$ and maybe 1 more in 2022/2023 to 149 or 99$)
All of this is not hard to do or to happen, it just depends on what sony wants and will do.
And talk whatever you want about those emerging markets, but when one kid with his mother go in the gamestore in 2022 and see PS5 for 500$ or even 400$ maybe by then, next to PS4 for 200$ she will probably go for the cheaper PS4 for 200$. Gamer who is not hardcore and want some cheap system to play just some good and cheap games will go for the 200$ system too.
It has a chance, but everything depends on Sony themselves. If they want to sell 10 more milion systems on 299$ or 30/40M more on 199$ and maybe some of them on 149$