Yes, it will be very difficult to do legs like PS2, and it needs many things for this, one of which is at least 2 major pricecuts at the right time. However PS4 will still have good legs and will pass 130M lifetime. The main reason I think in this way is because I am anticipating at least 1 major price cut, and with this there will be low end entry level PS4 at - 199$ and high end 499 or 599$ PS5. So when parents with kids go to the store, or some casual gamer go there what you think he will buy? good gaming machine with big library for 199$ or next gen super duper machine for 599$ ?
as for your points:
1. Stop with this bulls**t please. These emerging markets like brazil or india or some 3rd rate countries that don't know what gaming is are making possibly 1 or 2% of the sales ... how many of those 158M you thing PS2 did from these countries eh ? I am sure that more than 95% of the sales after 2006 are from japan, usa and europe. This is just some added reason to back your theory up.
2. PS3 released 6 years after PS2, and where are 6 there are 7. It's preety much the same.
3. PS4 can get to the PS2 price because PS4 has old parts in it. I mean the blu rey drive isn't new like it was with the PS3, the jaguar chips are so underpowered and cheap .. and everything in this system is very old and cheap by now. It's matter of time for sony to do a price cut. And the reason they haven't done it until now is the good sales. They didn't expect so high sales in 2016, 2017 and 2018, so they prolong the pricecut that they may have been planned for earlier. And because of the good sales of those 3 years, Sony though that 2019 may perform close to 2018. Which it didn't mostly because (imo) of the PS5 announcement. This ruined some 2M sales for the year .. This was mistake, they could wait until 2020 for this announcement. So with this 2019 was a little bit over 14M for PS4 and now that Sony see this and their PS5 unveil event is right around the corner - next month, they will probably do the permanent pricecut on the system to 199$ for the slim and 299$ for the pro. And this with help of some good games this year can boost PS4 sales for the year to the same level of 2019, despite PS5 launch. (As I already said, the difference between both will be at least 300$ which is more than enough to not ruin PS4 sales overral) It will drove some sales away from it sure, but not many at these prices.
Only if they don't do anything to PS4 then I can agree with 10-11M sales this year for the system, but I highly doubt it.
1. PS2 sold over 25 million outside of NA, EU & JP
2. You're right, it was 6.
3. The argument isnt about whether they can reduce the price by so much, its whether they will and there is nothing that suggests Sony will ever cut the price so low.
1. Yes, it has, but this is not all from emerging markets, at best 10M is from these countries that PS2 launched after PS3 launched, which is not much.
3. And what is suggesting otherwise ? That sony won't do it ? they have done it every single time, with exception of PS3 because it was expensive, and they wanted to get rid of it as soon as they can and not move their fingers about it. PS1 got to 49$, PS2 to 99$, PSP to 99$. If they decide they can eventually price cut PS4 to 99$ too. As I said it is with very cheap components. Although I am not sure they will go to 99$, 199$ is sure, and 149$ is also very possible. And these prices means a lot of sales. Exactly as you give the example with the 2 months of every year with temporary pricecuts, the sales go up through that period.
And permanent price cut will not only make an effect in the first 1 or 2 months but will help with sales every single month from there on out. If say without pricecut PS4 make 10M this year, with the pricecut it can reach to 13-14M. After the first blow of sales of the pricecut every single month will be let's say with 50k or something up. I mean if PS4 sell in january 150K every week at 299$ and the price cut is february for example after the first 1-2 months of sales of maybe 250-300K the next months will also be higher than 150K - january sales. They will drop of course from the first 1-2 months after the pricecut happens, but they will at least be at 200K-220K level and not the same old weak level of 150K when the 299$ was standart. These numbers are just examples, I am not saying will be the same or making predictions, because 150K isn't even the standart for PS4 sales yet. ( this number was only 1 week ).