First week of sales / lifetime sales:
Wii: 0.53M / 101M
WiiU: 0.47M / 14M
NS: 1.40M / ???
Either you believe NS will sell more than 250M or generations (at least for Nintendo) are becoming more front loaded.
Too much work for me. Feel free to do it yourself and I'll accept your numbers.
It would benefit you if you came with a number instead of a (infinite) range because this way you're not as committed as I am, and then your critics are not really critics. They're just attacks from a person that doesn't quite understand how hard it is to make a real prediction.
I have opened all the links from the OP and didn't find it. Please post it here.
1. You are making a bunch of errors here. It's a bad analysis to look at first week sales of a console in relation to its lifetime sales in order to conclude how frontloaded a generation is. Additionally, you can't prove a trend with only two data points. Lastly, your conclusion makes no sense. If Wii sold ~0.5% of its lifetime sales in week 1 and Wi U sold ~3.5%, and I am applying 2% to Switch for argument's sake, then I am getting 70m units for Switch's lifetime sales to reverse the trend you claim to exist. Remember, you are making the claim that generations are getting more frontloaded; I did not say anything about exactly matching the Wii's sales pattern which is how you must have arrived at 250m.
2. Wii U by year from mid-november to mid-november to measure comparable 12-month-periods:
2012/13 - 3.9m
2013/14 - 3.6m
2014/15 - 3.3m
2015/16 - 2.8m (VGC has overtracked this period, so it should actually be half a million less than 2.8m)
This argument was about a sales pattern where you proposed a decline of 33% from year 1 to year 2 and another 33% decline from year 2 to year 3 which I called unprecedented. The Wii U was a failure that was left in the dust by the competition, but even it only declined by ~10% each year. If Switch sells at least 9m in its first 12 months - which is likely, because it will be halfway there by the end of June - and follows the Wii U pattern, we are looking roughly at this:
Year 1 - 9m
Year 2 - 8m
Year 3 - 7m
Year 4 - 5m
Total - 29m
3. My prediction isn't an infinite range. It has a minimum value. I could understand your criticism here if my minimum value was 20m, because that would be such a low bar that it would be easy to end up being right. But a minimum value as high as 100m doesn't make it easy, especially when 50m is already considered an optimistic outlook by the vast majority.
4. Link to the prediction thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224679
Created on January 14th, two days after Nintendo's Switch presentation.