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Zod95 said:
RolStoppable said:

1. I am not seeing a trend where console sales are getting more frontloaded with each passing generation. The only verifiable trend in generational console sales is that you can't count on there being a trend as things can change dramatically from one generation to the next.

First week of sales / lifetime sales:

Wii: 0.53M / 101M

WiiU: 0.47M / 14M

NS: 1.40M / ???

Either you believe NS will sell more than 250M or generations (at least for Nintendo) are becoming more front loaded.

RolStoppable said:

2. You could break down Wii U sales into 12 month periods, having the first such period going from mid-November 2012 to mid-November 2013. This way you get comparable timeframes and each one has the benefit of only one holiday season.

Too much work for me. Feel free to do it yourself and I'll accept your numbers.

RolStoppable said:

3. My prediction of more than 100m constitutes a minimum, hence the "more than". I didn't need to raise the stakes any higher, because the VGC consensus was so low. When people were predicting 30-40m units, then I would have already been far above the average with 70m or 80m. 100m is a nice round number and provides more than enough shock value; it was also the highest poll option in the thread where I originally posted this prediction. Using 110m, 120m etc. wouldn't have had any benefit for me, rather it would have only made it harder for me to be right.

It would benefit you if you came with a number instead of a (infinite) range because this way you're not as committed as I am, and then your critics are not really critics. They're just attacks from a person that doesn't quite understand how hard it is to make a real prediction.

RolStoppable said:

4. If you find the time to read my thread's original post, you'll come across a link to a prediction thread with a better poll. Your prediction of 20m isn't an outlier as it isn't far below the average of 30-40m. Most predictions were in the range of 20-50m at the time.

I have opened all the links from the OP and didn't find it. Please post it here.

1. You are making a bunch of errors here. It's a bad analysis to look at first week sales of a console in relation to its lifetime sales in order to conclude how frontloaded a generation is. Additionally, you can't prove a trend with only two data points. Lastly, your conclusion makes no sense. If Wii sold ~0.5% of its lifetime sales in week 1 and Wi U sold ~3.5%, and I am applying 2% to Switch for argument's sake, then I am getting 70m units for Switch's lifetime sales to reverse the trend you claim to exist. Remember, you are making the claim that generations are getting more frontloaded; I did not say anything about exactly matching the Wii's sales pattern which is how you must have arrived at 250m.

2. Wii U by year from mid-november to mid-november to measure comparable 12-month-periods:

2012/13 - 3.9m
2013/14 - 3.6m
2014/15 - 3.3m
2015/16 - 2.8m (VGC has overtracked this period, so it should actually be half a million less than 2.8m)

This argument was about a sales pattern where you proposed a decline of 33% from year 1 to year 2 and another 33% decline from year 2 to year 3 which I called unprecedented. The Wii U was a failure that was left in the dust by the competition, but even it only declined by ~10% each year. If Switch sells at least 9m in its first 12 months - which is likely, because it will be halfway there by the end of June - and follows the Wii U pattern, we are looking roughly at this:

Year 1 - 9m
Year 2 - 8m
Year 3 - 7m
Year 4 - 5m
Total - 29m

3. My prediction isn't an infinite range. It has a minimum value. I could understand your criticism here if my minimum value was 20m, because that would be such a low bar that it would be easy to end up being right. But a minimum value as high as 100m doesn't make it easy, especially when 50m is already considered an optimistic outlook by the vast majority.

4. Link to the prediction thread:

Created on January 14th, two days after Nintendo's Switch presentation.

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments