no way GT5 makes it past 10 million , even best case scenario.

here are some real longshots

PSP - Crisis Core : Final Fantasy VII
PSP - Final Fantasy Tactics : Lion War
PSP - God of War


decent shots

XBox 360 - Halo 3
Wii - Mario Galaxy
Wii - Mario Kart
DS- New Super Mario Bros.

^well maybe you are right and i am just swayed by the numbers that GT3:A-spec managed, but i do think GT5 has a lot of potential, but when it is released the PS3 sell-through will probably be under 15 million (unless the game is delayed) so it would have to have some incredible legs.

GTA4 btw should, when adding 360 and PS3 numbers make the 15 Million mark (i think) but this thread was more specifically about that game list so we can't count both 360 and PS3 as one game.

In the current top 40 all-time best-sellers, there are 9 games from last gen...

GTA x 3
GT x 2
Pokemon x 2
Halo 2
FFX

You could arguably count the Sims and WoW for being in the same time period, but I'm just talking console generations.

There are already 7 from this gen... All Nintendo games, from 6 different franchises!

Nintendogs
NSMB
Wii Sports
Pokemon
Brain Age/Training
AC: Wild World
Mario Kart DS

And it won't be too long before Wii Play, Brain Age 2 and Halo 3 reach the top 40.

nice idea extending it to the tops 40 Erik, and that nicely shows where the power was and where the power is now; 3 PS2 exclusives, 3 PS2 games that started out as exclusives (i think GTA:SA was released PS2 first, not 100% sure though) 2 Nintendo handheld games (pokemon) and 1 XBox game.

This Gen is already Nintendo dominated for the top 40 (courtesy of the DS) with two more Nintendo games soon to enter and the microsoft anomaly Halo (i would bet there won't be any other game on the 360 entering the top 40 for a long time...possibly the next gears, but i doubt it)

Fairly comprehenisve review. I think that at the rate things are going only DS games have a solid chance with a few Wii titles. The 360 is doing much better than the original Xbox but I don't think they will have a big enough base to push Halo 3 or Gears of War 2 high enough. Halo 4 maybe but I don't think we will see it this generation.

I don't know enough about future DS games to speculate but I have to think that if Brain Training makes it, BT2 will have a chance. I know it isn't selling huge yet but I think it will chart for 5-10 years like it's predecessor.

As far as Wii titles. Yes to Wii Sports. Wii Play is a maybe as I think we might see a new bundle. Rumor has it Australia has the controller with Big Brain Academy. Smash Bros., and Mario Kart have a slim chance and slightly better than Galaxy because of replay/online cut off people reselling them. Who knows what Wii Fit will really do but I think it wont push more than 5-10 million. There is also a chance for Animal Crossing if the Wii sells 100 million consoles like some predict.

One you didn't mention that I think has a great chance - Wii Sports 2.

It is a sequel to what is arguably the most popular game of this generation, which was well recieved but many people want more from. Imagiine a a slightly more fleshed out game with just as inuitive controls, a couple more games to play, more achievements, and online.

Well they won't take Wii play away from the Wii remote, at least i wouldn't have thought so, i think when they do add more remote bundles the Wiiplay will remain, and still sell at least 1/3 - 1/2 of what it is doing now until late in the consoles life, which would still be amazing numbers and still make the top 10 (whether it is pushed out by later games i can't guess)

According to Miyamoto Wii sports 2 is not even on the table at the moment, If it does happen it is a long way away, (maybe for christmas 2009 they will take out Wii sports from the Western bundle and add Wii sports 2 (also seperately selling wii sports as a budget title and 2 as a full price)....if that does happen and the Wii is still selling phenomenally then yes it could.

Now that i rethink, MarioKart might actually have the most sales out of the big3 because it appeals more to anyone, Smash and Galaxy are being hyped in the gaming community so much i dismissed the fact that MK:DD was the best selling GC game.
i would still put Galaxy at 15 million at least though....SmashBros maybe about the same, but as melee only sold 6.58 i am not sure.

Animal Crossing?....that sounds like a long shot to me, remember each time a new game enters the top 10 it ups the bar for the next one to make it, so a currently unannounced game would have to sell 18 million to make it due at least 3 of the four games i mentioned (in bold on OP) will manage that.

The above statement pretty much means Halo3/4 and Gears2 have no chance of making it....i think by the end of this generation there will be at least 4 new games in the top 10, meaning 4 games with sales of > 18.14M. it think it could even be up to 6 new games (>23.10) and at least 5 more games will have entered the top 10 but been pushed back out.....Like Erik implied, the top 40 is going to be redefined this generation--possibly no more games with less than 10 million sales. 

p.s. Wii sports online would be incredible, that's what Wii sports 2 should be, Tennis/Bowling/Boxing plus two other sports (lose golf/baseball)

no one thinks any PSP games have a chance? the PSP already has 20+ million units out there, a recent price cut, a recent redesign, and a slew of big games hitting soon. (CC:FF, FF:Tactics, God of War)

GTA San Andreas has chances to enter in the top ten.

 thats confirmed, but like Australian sales make a difference

i reckon ive played golf more then any sport, as if they should scrap that. I reckon they should use the same forumula for it, but with a stack more holes.

i don't think any PSP games have a chance no, like i said, there will be very few games this gen that end up in the top 10, PSP has no chance.

GTA san andreas has a miniscule chance, both Wii sports and Nintendogs will beat it to the 15.18 million point... it might sell the 300k it needs over christmas, (i'm not sure how fast it is selling in Eu) but Nintendogs is selling faster than it for sure so the point it has to sell more than will be moved up.
For GTA:SA to geinto the top 10, it will have to either suddenly start selling more than Nintendogs, or manage to break 16.08 Million before Wii sports, neither of which it will do.
It will end 2007 either in the same position (12th) or if it doesn't manage the 15.18M this year it will still be behind pokemon R/S and be in 13th.