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Nintendo's Wii: Beating the PlayStation 2 a Real Possibility?

Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo's Wii: Beating the PlayStation 2 a Real Possibility?

I won't repost my whole sig (it would be pointless), but after crunching the numbers for the last two weeks, I would like to direct people's attention to the last few bits about the Wii crossing the PS2.  Particularly this part:

2012: (226w) +0059.7%, 2013: (278w) +0029.8%, 2014: (330w) +0009.4%, 2015: (385w) -0006.3%
At +0% it will pass it in 361w, the week ending August 3rd, 2014, at an age of 402w.

The Wii can, in fact, surpass the PS2 in sales if it sells as well as it has over the course of the next 7 years.  Certainly 7 years is a long time, and many things can change between now and then.  But this is the first time the numbers have shown it to even be a possibility.  On top of this, a 50% increase would see the Wii passing PS2 lifetime sales in only five and a half years from launch, approximately April 15, 2012.

I normally wouldn't make such a big deal out of an approximation, but no one can argue that the PS2 was clearly the best-selling console over its lifetime so far in this industry.  To see that another console may top it is extremely intriguing. 

 



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

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Are these consistent sales as to what they currently are over the next few years? Because sales usually spike around the holidays which would diminish overall time. Then, of course, there is always the price cuts where most systems are sold at the lower prices during a console's lifetime.



To cash in my CC rewards points for $300 in Circuit City gift cards to purchase a 360 or not: That is the question.

Your calculation do have a a flaw: They don't seem to calculate in Christmas. As far as i remember in US and Europe, the half of the business is done in the first 3 quarters, the second half is done in the fourth. So just wait to see that 2 of the 3 have at least a full Christmas, before doing such calculations :)



You are both correct, ceres and Just_Ben. I haven't made any accounts for Christmas, but as you can probably see, there is no definite model for these sales just yet (this Christmas will be VERY telling of the future of this generation).

When I have some spare time (which is scarce enough as is for me right now) I'll toss some calculations around, mix weights and such, and see what I get for a Christmas-inclusive number.

I have a feeling people will be very surprised by what they see...



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

Its still a bit early to know. The Wii has a lot of upside (huge potential for increase in sales for next 12 months), whereas PS2 sales will only weaken from here (I presumed you factored in increases in the PS2 install base).

Its going to be hard to know, and sort of irrelevant if/when it does happen (PS2 will be well and truly 'dusty' by then).



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I was actually going to point that out myself ceres. Neither the PS3 or the Wii have seen a real holiday season yet. And the Wii may still be extremely supply constrained this holiday even with stockpiling.

With that said, the current "rate" is an incomplete analysis and if you evaluate it in that context it is still a valid Ω(n) analysis. But it is important to remember that a very large portion of sales come from these holiday seasons and in the case of the PS2 its best holidays were after price cuts in years 2, 3, and 4 iirc.

So with that in mind this analysis, while interesting, is lacking some vital data to reach its full potential. But it is something worth watching as it develops. The two key points for this analysis are going to be the next two holidays ('07 and '08) as they will give that incite into the Wii holidays sales that is lacking right now.

Edit: PS - For those who don't know: Ω(n)= Big-Oh notation for asymptotic lower bounds. In other words it means its a good analysis for the lower boundry of performance. Too much time at school perhaps >< Need to spend more time gaming..yeah thats it!

Edit2: If you're interested the upper bound is notated by "O", hence Big-Oh notation. To signify a tight match you use the character "Θ".

 


 



To Each Man, Responsibility

The Wii can, in fact, surpass the PS2 in sales if it sells as well as it has over the course of the next 7 years. Certainly 7 years is a long time, and many things can change between now and then.


Various consoles sold faster than the PS2 (or PSX) did orignally, though the PS2 (and PSX) had legs like no other console with increasingly impressive sales figures over the years until about last year with the arrival of the Wii and PS3.

I think 7 years from now we will see a much different market with high definition content like movies and games playing a much greater role within the market than it does today. Also I think we will get to see more impressive games pushing the hardware more and more, with the PS3 platform experiencing more gains than either the Nintendo Wii or XBox 360, as developers are only scratching the surface of the PS3's potential.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

Well if the PS2 keeps selling than the Wii won't but its possible, if the Wii does than we all know the old Nintendo is back in business.



Both the Wii and DS passing the PS2 in sales is currently possible, but it still depends on a crapload of completely unknown factors.

The biggest one is probably how lasting the appeal of the Wii will be. It's possible for people to grow less interested in the Wii if HD adoption rates soar, or developers get really unimaginative. On the other hand it's at least equally possible for graphics to loose a good bit of their importance as people simply don't care if their games are HD or not. At least the more casual part of the market that more than half of the PS2's userbase consists of couldn't care less.

Another factor is how quickly and completely developers migrate to the Wii. So far it looks very good, but I suppose it's theoretically possibly for companies to keep their best teams making their huge epic games on the other consoles where they don't make money, and only put ports and minigames on the Wii to stay afloat economically. I'm sure everyone understands how stupid a business model that would be.

It's also possible for Nintendo to get greedy and release a new console early on that is not counted as another model of the Wii, but rather a new machine entirely. To me this would mean that the games for the new one don't work on the original Wii, but I don't think everyone agrees.



Takashii: The PS2 is still selling, just... not very much. It's a "negligible" enough difference that the only effect would be a few months' delay on a crossover if it does actually happen.

Parokki: Totally forgot about the DS's numbers, and I see it being a real possibility, given how much it's been selling over the last few years.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007