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Forums - Sony Discussion - CES 2009: Blu-Ray US adoption rate vs CD/DVD/VHS/TV/Color TV/HDTV

Star Scream said:
alpha_dk said:
Star Scream said:
Kasz216 said:
Star Scream said:
5.5 Million, 25.1 Million and 98 Million.

=============================================================

First two are very similar to what BR has done. However, jump to ~100m next year would be huge for BR.

you seem to misunderstand.

DVDs "First year" corresponds to Blu-rays 2006.

They released at about the same time.

That 5.5 Million is up against the 360K.

Also once again... not countin the fact that in terms of disc market share... more movies are being bought now... then they were when DVD was starting out.

 

 

That's intersting - so BR is one year or so behind in disc adoption? What were the DVD player sales back then, were they huge, or was the attachment ratio much higher?

 

First year DVD was approx 300k, 2nd year approx 1M, 3rd year approx 4 million (US only)

 

 

That would mean attachment ratio was huge - 18 for every DVD plyaer or so. Something's not right here...

Not really... How many movies do you buy in a year?

How many movies does an enthusiast buy in a year?

I know a lot of people that buy at least 1 movie per month... and other people, get crazy with it.



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Star Scream said:
alpha_dk said:
Star Scream said:
Kasz216 said:
Star Scream said:
5.5 Million, 25.1 Million and 98 Million.

=============================================================

First two are very similar to what BR has done. However, jump to ~100m next year would be huge for BR.

you seem to misunderstand.

DVDs "First year" corresponds to Blu-rays 2006.

They released at about the same time.

That 5.5 Million is up against the 360K.

Also once again... not countin the fact that in terms of disc market share... more movies are being bought now... then they were when DVD was starting out.

 

 

That's intersting - so BR is one year or so behind in disc adoption? What were the DVD player sales back then, were they huge, or was the attachment ratio much higher?

 

First year DVD was approx 300k, 2nd year approx 1M, 3rd year approx 4 million (US only)

 

 

That would mean attachment ratio was huge - 18 for every DVD plyaer or so. Something's not right here...

 

People replaced their VHS collections with DVDs.  People aren't so into doing that for BR because there are not as many immediate tangible benefits.

Edit: Also, these are shipments only in all cases.  That could skew it as well.



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I just bought one movie - Transformers the Movie (1986), will buy Blade Runner and maybe Space Odyssey if that's out, but that's it.



alpha_dk said:
Star Scream said:

 

That would mean attachment ratio was huge - 18 for every DVD plyaer or so. Something's not right here...

 

People replaced their VHS collections with DVDs.  People aren't so into doing that for BR because there are not as many immediate tangible benefits.

Edit: Also, these are shipments only in all cases.  That could skew it as well.

 

I sure as hell am not going to replace the 300 dvds that I have with BRs.  I did get a BR player, but mainly just so I could get BRs from Netflix.



According to the DVDInformation site there were only 3.5million DVD players sold in the US for the first 3 years and 128.6million DVD movies shipped??

Attachment rate = 36.7 movies per player???

It seems more than a little excessive...



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I dont really get why all ps3's shouldnt count, everyone i know who has a ps3 buys BD films on a faily regular basis, and most dont buy many dvds anymore - at least not when it comes to new releases as the general consensus i have found is that the BD is worth the extra couple of quid.

Also, in the UK, it is only recently that the stand alone players have become a noticable amount cheaper than the ps3, so again, eveyone i know who wanted BD exclusively for movies ended up getting a ps3 instead because it was either cheaper or only a little more expensive, so a no brainer. When stand alone players came out over here they started at £1000 vs £400 for ps3, it took a while for them to be competative agianst the console as a HD movie player.

Once BD players are > £100 i cant imagine many new customers coming into the market caring much for DVD, especially as alot of people want to buy the new releases, which again arent that much cheaper on the inferior format. BTW blueray are not expensive if you shop around, just got the 5 disk planet earth series on BD for £20.



This is from dvd-faq: http://www.dvddemystified.com/dvdfaq.html

Here's reality:

* 1997
- 349,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (About 200,000 sold into homes.)
- 900 DVD-Video titles available in the U.S. Over 5 million copies shipped; about 2 million sold.
- Over 500,000 DVD-Video players shipped worldwide.
- Around 330,000 DVD-ROM drives shipped worldwide with about 1 million bundled DVD-ROM titles.
- 60 DVD-ROM titles (mostly bundled).
* 1998
- 1,089,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 1,438,000.)
- 400 DVD-Video titles in Europe (135 movie and music titles).
- 3,000 DVD-Video titles in the U.S. (2000 movie and music titles).
- 7.2 million DVD-Video discs purchased.
* 1999
- 4,019,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 5,457,000.)
- Over 6,300 DVD-Video titles in the U.S.
- About 26 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
- About 75 DVD-ROM titles available in the U.S.
* 2000
- 8.5 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 13,922,000.)
- About 46 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
- Over 10,000 DVD-Video titles available in the U.S.
- Belgium: 100 thousand installed base
- France: 1.2 million installed base
- Germany: 1.2 million installed base
- Italy: 360 thousand installed base
- Netherlands: 200 thousand installed base
- Spain: 300 thousand installed base
- Sweden: 120 thousand installed base
- Switzerland: 250 thousand installed base
- UK: 1 million installed base
* 2001
- 12.7 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 26,629,000.)
- Over 45 million DVD-ROM drives in the U.S.
- Over 90 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
- UK: 3 million installed base
* 2002
- 17 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 43,718,000.)
- Over 75 million DVD-ROM drives in the U.S.
- Over 140 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
* 2003 (fall)
- 16 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 73,300,000.)
- Over 27,000 DVD-Video titles available in the U.S.



What I find most interesting is that HDTVs have not gone up the same amount as BR....

Is this because alot of people had HDTVs already or are people just buying BR players cause there the new thing to have?



Nintendo = Innovation = Wii

gavind5uk said:
This is from dvd-faq: http://www.dvddemystified.com/dvdfaq.html

Here's reality:

* 1997
- 349,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (About 200,000 sold into homes.)
- 900 DVD-Video titles available in the U.S. Over 5 million copies shipped; about 2 million sold.
- Over 500,000 DVD-Video players shipped worldwide.
- Around 330,000 DVD-ROM drives shipped worldwide with about 1 million bundled DVD-ROM titles.
- 60 DVD-ROM titles (mostly bundled).
* 1998
- 1,089,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 1,438,000.)
- 400 DVD-Video titles in Europe (135 movie and music titles).
- 3,000 DVD-Video titles in the U.S. (2000 movie and music titles).
- 7.2 million DVD-Video discs purchased.[/n]
* 1999
- 4,019,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 5,457,000.)
- Over 6,300 DVD-Video titles in the U.S.
- About 26 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
- About 75 DVD-ROM titles available in the U.S.
* 2000
- 8.5 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 13,922,000.)
- About 46 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
- Over 10,000 DVD-Video titles available in the U.S.
- Belgium: 100 thousand installed base
- France: 1.2 million installed base
- Germany: 1.2 million installed base
- Italy: 360 thousand installed base
- Netherlands: 200 thousand installed base
- Spain: 300 thousand installed base
- Sweden: 120 thousand installed base
- Switzerland: 250 thousand installed base
- UK: 1 million installed base
* 2001
- 12.7 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 26,629,000.)
- Over 45 million DVD-ROM drives in the U.S.
- Over 90 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
- UK: 3 million installed base
* 2002
- 17 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 43,718,000.)
- Over 75 million DVD-ROM drives in the U.S.
- Over 140 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
* 2003 (fall)
- 16 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 73,300,000.)
- Over 27,000 DVD-Video titles available in the U.S.

 

Thanks for the FAQ. I knew there was something fishy about previously mentioned numbers...



We never claimed they were anything other than shipped numbers, I don't see how anything is 'fishy' about that. Thank you for the source for consumer sells, gavind... do you know what their source is? I've been looking for straight-up to-consumer data for a while (not very hard, mind you) and I'd like to know where these to-consumers numbers came from. Most (all) of the data I can find is to-retailers

Edit: Also, holy crap!  200k consumer player sell-through (first year), 2M disc sell-through?!?! That's still an attach rate of 10!

Edit 2: Oh, wait. I see what they did.  They had consumer sell-through for year one, but just used shipments for years 2-X.  Darn.



Please, PLEASE do NOT feed the trolls.
fksumot tag: "Sheik had to become a man to be useful. Or less useful. Might depend if you're bi."

--Predictions--
1) WiiFit will outsell the pokemans.
  Current Status: 2009.01.10 70k till PKMN Yellow (Passed: Emerald, Crystal, FR/LG)