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Forums - Sales Discussion - Poll: Who will win the Console Wars?

People says PS3 will surely catchup Wii after 5 years, and PS3 will win this generation after 10 years.  I think it is possible, becuase the next next generation Wii 2 will come out after 5 years and Nintendo also stop to produce the Wii anymore at this moment.

 

After 5 year  sales figure

PS3 - 51Million

Wii -  50Million

Wii 2 - 100Million 

 

The only way PS3 can win over Wii is Nintendo stop producing Wii. 



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yeah another prediction/poll/flame war bait/point of entire website/thread.

Wii all the way man.



Wii: 11
PS3: 1
360: 2



Predictions for December 31st 2008:
Wii 38,000,000
DS 84,500,000
PS3 17,000,000
PSP 41,000,000
X360 23,000,000

@ Sqrl

Some reasons / believes for my PS3 win prediction.

1) Significant price drops 

2) HDTV marketshare increase

3) Blu-Ray taking off, nice to have an all in one device

4) IMO best exclusives line-up

5) PS2 discontinued, good software backwards compatibility, upscaling PS2 games for HDTVs, no memory cards needed, wireless controller, 
better able to read old scratchet PS2 and movie DVDs, etc.
=> Most logical upgrade path for PS2 owners.

6) People will realize they get their money's worth, far more sturdy device compared to the direct competition (X360). Blu-Ray discs are relatively worry free due to significantly improved scratch and smudge resistance. Free online services. Playstation Home success.

7) Games developers adapt their games engines to use the Cell's SPEs, allowing for game complexity not
seen on rival consoles.

8) Cool new PS-Eye games and uses.

9) People appreciating the PS3 multi-media features like viewing and sharing photos and videos, etc.

10) Interesting PSP remote connectivity options and possibly recording options. 



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

nvalue said:

People says PS3 will surely catchup Wii after 5 years, and PS3 will win this generation after 10 years. I think it is possible, becuase the next next generation Wii 2 will come out after 5 years and Nintendo also stop to produce the Wii anymore at this moment.

 

After 5 year sales figure

PS3 - 51Million

Wii - 50Million

Wii 2 - 100Million

 

The only way PS3 can win over Wii is Nintendo stop producing Wii.


 It won't be "this generation" in ten years if Nintendo and Microsoft are already pushing their next consoles.  That's like saying if the Xbox was to suddenly just barely outsell the PS2, in 2009 (I know it's nowhere close, but for argument's sake), then the Xbox won the last generation.  When in reality, the last generation, for all intents and purposes, ended in the fall of 2006.  If you want to be generous, then this Christmas is the end of the generation, as PS2 is still seeing releases that sell fairly well.

I guarantee you, Sony will not survive ten years on just the PS3.  They will need to compete at eye-level with the Xbox 3, and if the Nintendo 6 soaks up all the hardware sales and profits, how could the PS3 possibly survive?



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

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My opinion whos going to Win is...... who cares. I love a 3 of the next gen consoles and wish them all success!!



I think the real deciding factor in this generation will be HDTV adoption. People who are buying Wiis now, if they buy a HDTV after the prices for the HD consoles fall, they will probably pick one of them up. However, they'll already have the Wii. So, depending on how fast HDTV adoption occurs, I'd say
a) HDTV widely adopted, soon: 1. PS3 2. Wii 3. 360
b) HDTV not widely adopted, or adopted late in the generation: 1. Wii 2. PS3 3. 360

However, I wouldn't predict wide HDTV adoption, as long as 99% of channels on cable still broadcast in 4:3 aspect SD...



@ WiteoutKing 

It won't be "this generation" in ten years if Nintendo and Microsoft are already pushing their next consoles.

The choice for classifying generations is subjective. If one based on hardware perfomance, the Nintendo Wii is closer to the PS2 in generation than to the PS3. If you classify based on timing, not all consoles are released in the same year nor last equally as long. What if the XBox 360 would be discontinued today, would it have "won" this generation?

Currently I consider the PS2 to be current generation, just as much as the PS3 and XBox 360. At least it has been
outselling both for every month so far. I just look at it as a lowend product and the other two as higher end
products. What if for example Sega would today release a new console targetted at the lowend market with equal specs as the PS2? What generation product would it be? I would say, current generation.

Just some food for thought. 



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

senatorpjt: I uh... play my Wii on an HDTV. Having HD had/has no impact on my choice in console purchase.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

1st. Wii
2nd. PlayStation 3
3rd. Xbox 360



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