A lot of people aren't understanding that in order to achieve a market share greater than 50% and in a timely manner, (by the end of the year) you need to sell drastically above a 50% market share week by week. From what I have noticed, Nintendo is capturing about 45-55% of the market share on a weekly basis which averages out to 50%. Even if the were to sell at an exactly 50% market share for the rest of the wii's existence, they would never reach that number. Until something changes even further in favor of the wii that causes it to sell at; lets say a 60% market share, it will never happen.

A more likely event is that the wii will continue selling at the current rate but losing a tiny bit of market share whenever a huge AAA game comes out for the PS3 or 360. I think it will level out at 48% and stay there will the PS3 at 27% and the 360 at 25%.

The idea of "50% market share" by comparing raw sales is pretty messed up. The Wii, being the cheapest console of this generation and a direct successor/replacement of the GameCube, probably co-exists in a colossal number of instances with a 360, a PS3, or both.

Given a choice, users will probably choose the 360 or PS3 as their platform of choice for cross-platform releases (for obvious reasons).

"Market share", in the long-run, is really about software, not hardware. Comparing the three current-gen consoles as if most users only owned one exclusively is pretty much the definition of "bad science", especially at this relatively early stage. The only way you could claim one console has definate strangehold on marketshare, for a given console generation (lets not include the PS2, please), would be to take that consoles #s and subtract the sum of its competition first -- this would still put the Wii in the negatives at this moment. That might at least provide a decent starting basis.

The fact that the 360 and PS3 are so superior to the Wii, technologically, goes a long way to favor users spending $60 on the HD version of a cross-platform game, as opposed to the "practically last-gen" Wii version at $50, as well. Essentially, any household which owns a Wii, and also a PS3 or 360, will see the Wii's market penetration in that household trumped for cross-platform releases.

Much of the Wii's current number advantage over the HD consoles is due to its price, and a solid round of 1st party releases by Nintendo early on. Imagining that people will choose Wii software over 360 or PS3 software of higher caliber is pretty presumptuous. In that sense, the Wii can never truly "beat" its competition. Its not a good enough console to cover the more fervent gamers decently. The Wii can *be* beaten, however. Although that does seem to look less and less likely, assuming that it gets some decent non-casual titles here and there.

A better measure of "market share" might be "total number of new software titles sold each week"  If you use the top 20 for each console, for this week (in America), as a measuring stick:

Wii: 860K

360: 804K

 PS3: 443K

PS2: 157K

If you want to calculate market share, making the big assumption that a single piece of new software tends to generate about the same amount of profit, after factoring in higher dev and marketing costs for higher priced titles:

Wii:  38%

360:  35.5%

PS3: 19.6%

PS2: 6.9%

...and then if you consider that per HW unit sold / all consoles (America) -- you basically get something akin to attach rate, which is a much better measure of market penetration (although the total number units sold -- see above -- is actually a better measure, IMO):

 Wii: 38%/40.75% = 0.9325

360: 35.5%/41.86% = 0.8481

PS3: 19.6%/17.39% = 1.1271

Looks to me like the PS3 and 360 are doing just fine...

Wii will end up with minimum of 70% marketshare.

 The Wii is currently killing more than the PS2 did at this point in its life, in both hardware sales and software sales.

Wii Avg before FYs end: 316049
Wii Avg since FY ended: 401123
Wii Avg since FY ended (no MKWii Week): 354733
Wii(FY08) - Wii(FY07): 85074
Wii(FY08 #2) -Wii(FY07): 38684

For those who are using the whole year's data to predict why it will be impossible; keep in mind we have been seeing a marked increase in Wii shipments since the Fiscal Year interest; including MKWii's week, it is about a 25% weekly increase since Nintendo's FY ended, and not including it there is about a 12% increase. This will likely go up next week as well with Wii Fit, and judging by the known production numbers and sales for Q4 of FY07, they have quite a backlog of systems to sell.

How many is known only to them, but we know that at the very least they have *some* more to ship. Using the data for the parts of FY07 that are in calendar '08 to predict trends is dangerous.

Most people do only own one console. So your entire premise is flawed.

Really? Would that console be... a PS2? Maybe you'd like to provide some basis for your statement. I merely stated that its possible that multiple consoles cover many of the households. You seem to have some proof that this is not that case? Lets see it -- seriously, it would be beneficial to all if you could share this info.

Mifely, You said a "colossal" number of Wii owners would have at least 1 other console. You're the one making the wacky claims. You're the one who needs to prove it. We don't believe you.

I don't believe him either. But I know that 99% of people here have a PC and a Wii!

yup