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Is It True That 3rd Party Games Can't Sell on the Wii? Figures say No.

Forums - Gaming Discussion - Is It True That 3rd Party Games Can't Sell on the Wii? Figures say No.

Grampy you should really just copy and paste noname2200's post because he really nailed it with proof. What you did with your projected sales figures is the equivalent of when people say "PS3 Domination starts in 2009!". You can't prove third party software does sell by predictions that it will sell in the future, because all you really show people is it's not selling now(which isn't true). You need a new argument. I also don't believe sales can be predicted in advance accurately or even remotely close in many cases.



Tag: Became a freaking mod and a complete douche, coincidentally, at the same time.



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noname2200 said:
 So yes, Grampy, I would say you are correct about your assertion. Although I do have one question for you: why did you use projected numbers to prove your point about current third party successes, especially when we're on a sales site?

Excellent post. noname2200

Thank you. In answer to your question on using projected figures my rationale was this.

1) Because many good Wii 3rd party games have been released recently and have not had the time to show where they are going, I thought projections were useful as long as they came from a reputable site which tracks the games and adjusts according to actual performance.

2) In the time I've been on this site people seem more often to deal in sales numbers, not revenue

3) I thought numbers were simpler than dealing with relative costs, but you have done a masterful job.

4) I was responding to the constant refrain that NO 3rd party software can do well on the Wii so I mainly wanted to disprove this assumption, not necessarily to do competitive comparisons

5) Probably most important, I'm new and in my naiveté may simply have made the wrong choice. My bad.

 



RolStoppable said:
ChronotriggerJM said:
My only concern for the whole situation is games like No more hero's and Zak and Wiki, I mean it's like I hear forum after forum after forum bitching about 3rd party support on the Wii, then someone gives it to you in spades and they sell like ass >< I'm not going to say that 3rd party quality titles WON'T sell, but when Suda can put out a game like No More hero's then look at the sales figures next to something god awful like Mario Party 8 or Carnival games, it REALLY makes you think. It's not that the Wii can't play fantastic games, it's just it seems ripped and ready for cheap cash-ins :/

I can't believe this is still brought up. Haven't you heard that both, Capcom and Suda, were satisfied with the sales of their respective games? Zack & Wiki and No More Heroes met sales expectations.

But then there wouldn't be an argument if these games' success were acknowledged.

It seems like an evolution of the 3rd party argument to me. We have gone from 3rd party games not selling, to the wrong 3rd party games are selling. The baffling part being that there was no "wrong" 3rd party game before this generation.

I've seen two variations of it. The first I like to call the "1 million debacle." Despite the fact that both of these games are quite obviously successful, there are those that don't accept this because it did not reach 1 million sales. For a sales site it surprises me how few people seem to understand that the 1 million benchmark is not needed for success or profit.

The second variation is the "I sold more than you!" argument. The detractor will acknowledge that the game is successful in its own right, but they absolutely must find a way to diminish this success for their argument, so they will find a game that sold more than it and wave it around as if it nullified or canceled out the game in question. It doesn't.

What I find most fascinating are the villains, however. Carnival Games and Mario Party 8.

I had never heard of Carnival Games before I came to this forum. No one I know seems to know anything about the game. And yet it is constantly cited on this site to be the bane of everyone's existence. I don't really see it get attacked on other sites, even when they talk about Wii shovelware, and yet this game is only second to Wii Fit when it comes to 'destroying the industry' around these forums. The majority of the people fixated on the game as a source of evil have never even played it. How odd.

Mario Party 8 baffles me moreso than Carnival Games, however. This is the 8th Mario Party after all, and yet it is constantly cited as some sort of debacle. What happened with this game? What went wrong? ...did anythign actually go wrong? I can't really find anything about this Mario Party that makes it so different from the others to be contantly in the crosshairs, and I can never seem to get an explanation as to why this Mario game in particular is expected not to sell for "not being stellar enough." I thought people had come to the realization that Mario sells, yet Mario Party 8 is always said to be that terrible game that shouldn't. Why?



I am SuperLloyd!

(Im)patiently awaiting the Dawn of the New World!

I did a comparison of New IP's non 1st party on both HD consoles (Mainly the Xbox360) and the Wii.

HD consoles - $160,000,000 revenue at the shops
Wii - $40,000,000 revenue.

Thats an average of the top 10 new IP non 1st party games on either system. Thats as apples to apples and the most relevant I could make the comparison.

Until I can see otherwise im going to have to assume that a completely new IP will struggle on the Wii in comparison to a 360/PS3 multiplatform.

Until then, its either ports of established properties or Nintendo 1st party games.



Tease.

plzdontbanme said:
projections say no*

Remember the Wii itself was projected to fail and the ps3 was projected to blow the 360 and the Wii out of the water. Projections mean nothing in terms of sales.

I would draw a distinction between predictions made before data is trackable and projections which are based on real trends and numbers and adjusted as data indicates a need. It's not a alien concept, it's done on this site all the time, it's pretty much a stock in trade. Whenever they take a total sales graph and use the extension of the trend to estimate total console sales by the end of 2008, or when the Wii will pass the Xbox360, that's the exact same sort of projection.



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Squilliam said:
I did a comparison of New IP's non 1st party on both HD consoles (Mainly the Xbox360) and the Wii.

HD consoles - $160,000,000 revenue at the shops
Wii - $40,000,000 revenue.

Thats an average of the top 10 new IP non 1st party games on either system. Thats as apples to apples and the most relevant I could make the comparison.

Until I can see otherwise im going to have to assume that a completely new IP will struggle on the Wii in comparison to a 360/PS3 multiplatform.

Until then, its either ports of established properties or Nintendo 1st party games.


So you're saying that Bioshock is an "apples to apples" comparison to Red Steel?

I call Bullshit on that one! Bioshock had a massive marketing campaign and was dramatically better than Red-Steel, and was released after the XBox 360 had been on the market for 2 years.



SuperLloyd said:

A lot of good stuff.

Excellent post. Well said, SuperLloyd.


Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Grampy said:
plzdontbanme said:
projections say no*

Remember the Wii itself was projected to fail and the ps3 was projected to blow the 360 and the Wii out of the water. Projections mean nothing in terms of sales.

I would draw a distinction between predictions made before data is trackable and projections which are based on real trends and numbers and adjusted as data indicates a need. It's not a alien concept, it's done on this site all the time, it's pretty much a stock in trade. Whenever they take a total sales graph and use the extension of the trend to estimate total console sales by the end of 2008, or when the Wii will pass the Xbox360, that's the exact same sort of projection.


Projecting spore sales are the same as projecting when the wii will outsell the 360?  What?



"Why isn't samus in a mario kart game?"

Squilliam said:
I did a comparison of New IP's non 1st party on both HD consoles (Mainly the Xbox360) and the Wii.

HD consoles - $160,000,000 revenue at the shops
Wii - $40,000,000 revenue.

Thats an average of the top 10 new IP non 1st party games on either system. Thats as apples to apples and the most relevant I could make the comparison.

Until I can see otherwise im going to have to assume that a completely new IP will struggle on the Wii in comparison to a 360/PS3 multiplatform.

Until then, its either ports of established properties or Nintendo 1st party games.


There are a few things that perhaps need to be mentioned. First, you are factoring in super blockbuster like Halo 3 and GTA IV, and COD4, and I will readily admit that the Wii does not have anything in the way of such huge 3rd party games. OK. My argument was against the mantra I hear over and over that NO 3rd party games can succeed on the Wii not that there is a GTA IV on the Wii -yet.Also your raw revenue numbers do not take into account the difference in development cost which can be as low as 25% on the Wii compared to PS360 development. This makes it particularly attractive to smaller, and often more innovative publishers that simply don’t have the budget to go HD. As economic conditions worsen, this reduced development cost may become a larger player.

 



plzdontbanme said:
Grampy said:
plzdontbanme said:
projections say no*

Remember the Wii itself was projected to fail and the ps3 was projected to blow the 360 and the Wii out of the water. Projections mean nothing in terms of sales.

I would draw a distinction between predictions made before data is trackable and projections which are based on real trends and numbers and adjusted as data indicates a need. It's not a alien concept, it's done on this site all the time, it's pretty much a stock in trade. Whenever they take a total sales graph and use the extension of the trend to estimate total console sales by the end of 2008, or when the Wii will pass the Xbox360, that's the exact same sort of projection.


Projecting spore sales are the same as projecting when the wii will outsell the 360?  What?


Which is why I carefully segregated it and labeled it as such. I do not think it is as reliable as data such as RE 4where the game is close to reaching the projected lifetime total.