After doing some research, I'd say the following games are guaranteed 10 million sellers:

Game (current sales)

Wii Sports (21.86m)
Wii Play (11.60m)
Super Smash Bros Brawl (4.90m)
Wii Fit (2.55m)
Mario Kart Wii (2.01m)

That makes five 10 million sellers, whereas GameCube couldn't manage even one 10 million seller!

Guaranteed 5 million sellers:

Super Mario Galaxy (6.40m) has a small shot at 10 million, I think.
Mario Party 8 (5.00m)
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (4.77m)
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (4.08m)

That makes nine 5 million sellers, whereas GameCube had only three 5 million sellers.


What do you think? Any other released games that will sell 5 or 10 million? Guitar Hero 3 maybe? What about yet to be released games? I think the next Zelda is a no-brainer, but what else?
All in all it's pretty obvious the Wii is a much better software mover than the GameCube ever was.

I would be surprised if Nintendogs isn't announced for the Wii in the near future. And if it does get released on the Wii, I would be very surprised not to see it hit 5 million in sales

Nice thread.

Check out mine. It will help you compare GC and Wii software when determining potential sales.

http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=25084


I'm not sure any other titles currently out have a shot at 5 million but there could be plenty later on. Animal Crossing Wii being a potential 10 million seller.

I think SMG should easily make 10M, listing it under 5M only seems very conservative.

Mario Party 9 could make 5M.

And Carnival Games 2 should easily make 10M

Aye, don't count out SMG yet. After another holiday season, I think it could be close to 10 mil. Mario games should have legs.

I'd say Super Mario Galaxy is a guaranteed 10 million seller. It's tracking higher than Super Mario 64 was, and Super Mario 64 sold 11 million something. Consider that Wii sales will continue to increase the legs of games like Super Mario Galaxy, the best 3D-platformer of this generation, will continue to show themselves. By the time this game is a year old, it will have more than 8 million sales.

No game is going to make 10 mill on the wii, well maybe SMG. i wouldnt even count wii play and wii sports since they are packed into hardware in most places

Galaxy will definitely hit 10m units sold. It is only 3.6m units away, and it has years to sell. If we assume it takes 2 years for it to hit 10m it only needs to sell ~10k per week to pull that off. Currently it is selling at ~80k/wk.

Mario & Sonic is a long shot, but it also could sell 10m units. It currently needs 6m units, and is selling at ~90k/wk. For it to hit 10m in 2 year, it needs to average 57k/wk, which is possible, but a long shot.

Big Brain Academy: Wii Degree could make 5m, but it will take at least 2 years, probably closer to 3.

Guitar Hero 3 probably won't hit 5m due to newer versions killing it off.
Mario Party 8 will also be killed off before hitting 10m.

So essentially, I think there will be at least 7 10m, and 10 5m sellers.

As for unreleased games, The 2 mario party games from now could break into the 5m again. I doubt the next version would sell as well, but 2 versions from now might. I'll make more guesses once E3 happens, but for now, we don't have a clue what is coming to the wii.

Galaxy, Brawl, Wii Fit and MKWii should all hit 10 million. The new Animal Crossing could be huge too.

So are you going to say that the Gamecube versions of Brawl and Mario Kart will have more units sold than the Wii versions, despite the Wii probably ended up with more than 3x the installed base of the gamecube and also a longer life time?