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Forums - Sony Discussion - Prediction: PS5 will sell considerably less than the PS4 in Japan LT

Intrinsic said:
Shiken said:

Regardless of the mobile trend, the Switch will still affect sales as there would be even less reason to buy a PS5 for those that do still want more traditional gaming experiences.

the switch is literally the mobile trend

Incorrect.  Show me Wolfenstein 2 or BotW on mobile.  They offer two different experiences.

MasonADC said:
Depends how much worst you are talking about. PS4 has gotten just about every big game available, and reaching 10 million is still questionable. I honestly can’t predict where it will go

Gonna say about 3 mil as a safe bet.



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Shiken said:
Intrinsic said:

the switch is literally the mobile trend

Incorrect.  Show me Wolfenstein 2 or BotW on mobile.  They offer two different experiences.

MasonADC said:
Depends how much worst you are talking about. PS4 has gotten just about every big game available, and reaching 10 million is still questionable. I honestly can’t predict where it will go

Gonna say about 3 mil as a safe bet.

What he meant was Switch is product of the mobile domination in Japan.



Xxain said:
Shiken said:

Incorrect.  Show me Wolfenstein 2 or BotW on mobile.  They offer two different experiences.

Gonna say about 3 mil as a safe bet.

What he meant was Switch is product of the mobile domination in Japan.

All the more reason to consider it a major factor then.



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Totally agree with the OP.  There is hardly any reason for a Japanese person to own a PS5.  Almost all of the Japanese games are going to be on the Switch.  Why would they buy a PS5, when Switch has all of the games they want?  Conservatively, I will predict PS5 will sell less than half of PS4 in Japan.  (Although I actually think it will be a lot lower than this.)


Now the next logical step is in realizing that this sort of thing is going to happen in North America and Europe too.  Switch won't have the same dominating market share in those regions like it will in Japan, but it's still going to lure away plenty of potential PS5 buyers to the Switch instead.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

Totally agree with the OP.  There is hardly any reason for a Japanese person to own a PS5.  Almost all of the Japanese games are going to be on the Switch.  Why would they buy a PS5, when Switch has all of the games they want?  Conservatively, I will predict PS5 will sell less than half of PS4 in Japan.  (Although I actually think it will be a lot lower than this.)


Now the next logical step is in realizing that this sort of thing is going to happen in North America and Europe too.  Switch won't have the same dominating market share in those regions like it will in Japan, but it's still going to lure away plenty of potential PS5 buyers to the Switch instead.

No, just no...



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Shiken said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Totally agree with the OP.  There is hardly any reason for a Japanese person to own a PS5.  Almost all of the Japanese games are going to be on the Switch.  Why would they buy a PS5, when Switch has all of the games they want?  Conservatively, I will predict PS5 will sell less than half of PS4 in Japan.  (Although I actually think it will be a lot lower than this.)


Now the next logical step is in realizing that this sort of thing is going to happen in North America and Europe too.  Switch won't have the same dominating market share in those regions like it will in Japan, but it's still going to lure away plenty of potential PS5 buyers to the Switch instead.

No, just no...

You are on the right track.  You will get to where I am eventually.  I essentially had all the same thoughts you had in your OP, but I had them 2 years ago.  In time you will come around.



Shiken said:
Intrinsic said:

the switch is literally the mobile trend

Incorrect.  Show me Wolfenstein 2 or BotW on mobile.  They offer two different experiences.

MasonADC said:
Depends how much worst you are talking about. PS4 has gotten just about every big game available, and reaching 10 million is still questionable. I honestly can’t predict where it will go

Gonna say about 3 mil as a safe bet.

Sheesh..... at least now I see why you are making the point you are making.

"Mobile" isn't a genre of game.... its a way of playing or a lifestyle. Its about not being tethered to a TV and power source...... and that is literally what the Switch represents. Ad that is what the japanese prefer.

Mak n mistake, the switch isn't selling better than the WiiU in japan because the japanese suddenly love the games on the switch more, its selling as well as it is over there primarily because of its ability to be a mobile console.



Intrinsic said:
Shiken said:

Incorrect.  Show me Wolfenstein 2 or BotW on mobile.  They offer two different experiences.

Gonna say about 3 mil as a safe bet.

Sheesh..... at least now I see why you are making the point you are making.

"Mobile" isn't a genre of game.... its a way of playing or a lifestyle. Its about not being tethered to a TV and power source...... and that is literally what the Switch represents. Ad that is what the japanese prefer.

Mak n mistake, the switch isn't selling better than the WiiU in japan because the japanese suddenly love the games on the switch more, its selling as well as it is over there primarily because of its ability to be a mobile console.

Mobile is referred to as a reference to phone games.  The content found on a portable console vs a mobile phone game is not the same.  Having these types of games portable with the option of playing on a TV is indeed why the Switch is selling, but it is not a 1 to 1 comparison to playing phone games and therefore offers more for those who want those experiences. However, at least I now know why you are purposely referring to the Switch as mobile using literal definitions knowing full well the terminology used by most people on these forums.

 

However, I am curious.  What was the point I am making?

Last edited by Shiken - on 19 March 2019

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Define "considerably". I can certainly see a 20% decline but is that a lot?



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Does it matter if it sell less in japan if it outsells the ps4 lifetime worldwide?