By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

flashfire926 on 21 December 2018
Bandorr said:

Reading this it sounds like PS4 "won" NPD.
More importantly it makes the 24th month - two years - that Xbox has "won" an NPD.
With the last one being November of 2016.

I find that interesting because I would have guessed(and probably did actually) that wouldn't happen. I expected the switch and ps4 to "steal" from each other having so many niche(ish) games in common. Instead it seems they actually are amplifying each other.

Instead of splitting the vote so to speak, they are multiplying each other. Instead of say going from 1.00 to .75, they are instead both at 1.25. Or at least that is how it feels.

I just didn't see that happening.

In the grand scale of things does that really matter?

For example, when we look at YTD 2018 (Janruary to November, 11 months), that total is higher than the same time period in 2016 (Janruary to November 2016).

And Xbox won four NPD's during that 2016 period, and came dead last almost every month this year. Just putting things into perspective.

You expected PS4 and Switch to steal off each other based on niche japanese games that have little to no impact here? You serious?



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

Around the Network
Trumpstyle on 21 December 2018
CGI-Quality said:

I'll take off the mod coat for just a sec.

Let's look at it this way ~ Switch has breathed new life into this game. Decemeber's numbers are going to be MASSIVE for it. Period. Dot.

Realistically, 80 million is the bare minimum of final lifetime totals. Treat it like a handheld regarding sales (its docking feature is the icing). I predict that it will sell between 95 and 115 million, give or take. A bit behind the PS4, but definitely ahead of the 3DS. I want all of its doubters of 80+ million final unit totals to consider that this isn't the Wii. It shouldn't have that kind of hard drop off because the carrying weight of the Wii's particular audience are not the people jumping through hoops for Smash. These are core, dedicated fans of the series and many of them WILL buy a Switch for just this one game. The PS5/Xbox Next will have an impact, no doubt, but there's nothing currently suggesting that this thing will just taper off and crawl to 80 million and the Switch has much more pulling power than the Wii, in my eyes.

2019 will be a better indicator of long term success. Just think about all of the variables to reach your final conclusions.

Yep, nope. You predicting it will sell close to PS4, no chance. If it can't even beat PS4 this year, Switch has no chance coming close to life-time sales of PS4. Switch will probably peak this year, like 3ds peaked first year and wii second year, Nintendo consoles peaks very early because of no 3rd-party titles.

I expect Switch sales start to dwindle next year and if they don't release a Switch Mini soon without a station dock the sales will start to fizzle very quickly. Life-time sales will be between 60-70m and the biggest reason for this will be price. I don't believe Nintendo can hit that 99-149$ price point nintendo 3ds manage to do.



6x master league achiever in starcraft2

Beaten Sigrun on God of war mode

Beaten DOOM ultra-nightmare with NO endless ammo-rune, 2x super shotgun and no decoys on ps4 pro.

1-0 against Grubby in Wc3 frozen throne ladder!!

Miyamotoo on 21 December 2018
Trumpstyle said:
CGI-Quality said:

I'll take off the mod coat for just a sec.

Let's look at it this way ~ Switch has breathed new life into this game. Decemeber's numbers are going to be MASSIVE for it. Period. Dot.

Realistically, 80 million is the bare minimum of final lifetime totals. Treat it like a handheld regarding sales (its docking feature is the icing). I predict that it will sell between 95 and 115 million, give or take. A bit behind the PS4, but definitely ahead of the 3DS. I want all of its doubters of 80+ million final unit totals to consider that this isn't the Wii. It shouldn't have that kind of hard drop off because the carrying weight of the Wii's particular audience are not the people jumping through hoops for Smash. These are core, dedicated fans of the series and many of them WILL buy a Switch for just this one game. The PS5/Xbox Next will have an impact, no doubt, but there's nothing currently suggesting that this thing will just taper off and crawl to 80 million and the Switch has much more pulling power than the Wii, in my eyes.

2019 will be a better indicator of long term success. Just think about all of the variables to reach your final conclusions.

Yep, nope. You predicting it will sell close to PS4, no chance. If it can't even beat PS4 this year, Switch has no chance coming close to life-time sales of PS4. Switch will probably peak this year, like 3ds peaked first year and wii second year, Nintendo consoles peaks very early because of no 3rd-party titles.

I expect Switch sales start to dwindle next year and if they don't release a Switch Mini soon without a station dock the sales will start to fizzle very quickly. Life-time sales will be between 60-70m and the biggest reason for this will be price. I don't believe Nintendo can hit that 99-149$ price point nintendo 3ds manage to do.

So you expecting Switch sales will fail of a cliff after Holiday season!? :D 

We here had similar prediction last year in same time period. :)



manuelogando40 on 21 December 2018
KingofTrolls said:
So did PS4 won in units sold or no ?

Could be. Npd doesn't give figures since moths ago. 

Figures you read here are from Era. And they are not accurate. 



"Every day I look in the mirror and ask myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?". If the answer is no for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something"

Steve Jobs

Trumpstyle on 21 December 2018
super_etecoon said:
Intrinsic said:

I think you both are missing something

https://venturebeat.com/2018/12/18/november-2018-npd-nintendo-switch-outsells-everything/

What are we missing?  Or what am I missing, to be more accurate?

I like how your own link says this "For instance, PlayStation 4 was the top-selling console by units."

hehe :)



6x master league achiever in starcraft2

Beaten Sigrun on God of war mode

Beaten DOOM ultra-nightmare with NO endless ammo-rune, 2x super shotgun and no decoys on ps4 pro.

1-0 against Grubby in Wc3 frozen throne ladder!!

Around the Network
WhatATimeToBeAlive on 21 December 2018
RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes, so far it doesn't seem like they are competing for the same costumers.

There is definitely overlap between Switch and PS4 ownership. The catch is that a PS4 purchase doesn't rule out a Switch purchase like it rules out an Xbox One purchase. And vice versa, a Switch purchase doesn't rule out the purchase of either a PS4 or Xbox One.

That's something that people should keep in mind when they wonder if the next PS and Xbox consoles will impact Switch negatively. Hint: They won't.

How can you be so sure that PS5/Xbox Two won't "cannibalize" Switch sales? Do you have definite evidence that cannibals are extinct? Because just over a year ago there were several people who believed that cannibalization would claim the lives of many PS4/Xbox One consoles.



"The rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated."

- Single-player Game

zorg1000 on 21 December 2018
WhatATimeToBeAlive said:
RolStoppable said:

There is definitely overlap between Switch and PS4 ownership. The catch is that a PS4 purchase doesn't rule out a Switch purchase like it rules out an Xbox One purchase. And vice versa, a Switch purchase doesn't rule out the purchase of either a PS4 or Xbox One.

That's something that people should keep in mind when they wonder if the next PS and Xbox consoles will impact Switch negatively. Hint: They won't.

How can you be so sure that PS5/Xbox Two won't "cannibalize" Switch sales? Do you have definite evidence that cannibals are extinct? Because just over a year ago there were several people who believed that cannibalization would claim the lives of many PS4/Xbox One consoles.

You are making things up. Very few, in any, people thought Switch would hurt PS4/XBO sales. It was more of the opposite,

"How can Switch succeed? It's the same price as the more powerful PS4/XBO and doesn't have any of the big 3rd party games"



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

PortisheadBiscuit on 21 December 2018
Trumpstyle said:
CGI-Quality said:

I'll take off the mod coat for just a sec.

Let's look at it this way ~ Switch has breathed new life into this game. Decemeber's numbers are going to be MASSIVE for it. Period. Dot.

Realistically, 80 million is the bare minimum of final lifetime totals. Treat it like a handheld regarding sales (its docking feature is the icing). I predict that it will sell between 95 and 115 million, give or take. A bit behind the PS4, but definitely ahead of the 3DS. I want all of its doubters of 80+ million final unit totals to consider that this isn't the Wii. It shouldn't have that kind of hard drop off because the carrying weight of the Wii's particular audience are not the people jumping through hoops for Smash. These are core, dedicated fans of the series and many of them WILL buy a Switch for just this one game. The PS5/Xbox Next will have an impact, no doubt, but there's nothing currently suggesting that this thing will just taper off and crawl to 80 million and the Switch has much more pulling power than the Wii, in my eyes.

2019 will be a better indicator of long term success. Just think about all of the variables to reach your final conclusions.

Yep, nope. You predicting it will sell close to PS4, no chance. If it can't even beat PS4 this year, Switch has no chance coming close to life-time sales of PS4. Switch will probably peak this year, like 3ds peaked first year and wii second year, Nintendo consoles peaks very early because of no 3rd-party titles.

I expect Switch sales start to dwindle next year and if they don't release a Switch Mini soon without a station dock the sales will start to fizzle very quickly. Life-time sales will be between 60-70m and the biggest reason for this will be price. I don't believe Nintendo can hit that 99-149$ price point nintendo 3ds manage to do.

Switch is not the 3DS...



manuelogando40 on 21 December 2018
CGI-Quality said:
Trumpstyle said:

Yep, nope. You predicting it will sell close to PS4, no chance. If it can't even beat PS4 this year, Switch has no chance coming close to life-time sales of PS4. Switch will probably peak this year, like 3ds peaked first year and wii second year, Nintendo consoles peaks very early because of no 3rd-party titles.

I expect Switch sales start to dwindle next year and if they don't release a Switch Mini soon without a station dock the sales will start to fizzle very quickly. Life-time sales will be between 60-70m and the biggest reason for this will be price. I don't believe Nintendo can hit that 99-149$ price point nintendo 3ds manage to do.

Switch won't dwindle next year. 

 

manuelogando40 said: 

Could be. Npd doesn't give figures since moths ago. 

Figures you read here are from Era. And they are not accurate. 

If they aren't accurate, explain how that is.

Ask Matt piscatella why they don't give the sales figures in the monthly report. All we know is that the 3 consoles sold more than 1.3 million each.



"Every day I look in the mirror and ask myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?". If the answer is no for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something"

Steve Jobs

WhatATimeToBeAlive on 21 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
WhatATimeToBeAlive said:

How can you be so sure that PS5/Xbox Two won't "cannibalize" Switch sales? Do you have definite evidence that cannibals are extinct? Because just over a year ago there were several people who believed that cannibalization would claim the lives of many PS4/Xbox One consoles.

You are making things up. Very few, in any, people thought Switch would hurt PS4/XBO sales. It was more of the opposite,

"How can Switch succeed? It's the same price as the more powerful PS4/XBO and doesn't have any of the big 3rd party games"

I am not making things up. Cannibalization was mentioned several times last year.

Your second statement is most likely true, but given what happened to Wii U, GameCube and N64, it was reasonable to have doubts about Switch succes. But I don't know where those "Switch is going to cannibalize PS4/Xbox One sales" statements were based on.



"The rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated."

- Single-player Game