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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 111.08m by June 30th, Forecast for Current Fiscal Year Remains at 21.0m

zorg1000 said:

What makes you think im not relaxed?

Im not saying you arent allowed to change your prediction. That never once came out of my mouth.

Im saying changing your prediction by a large amount means you dont stand by it.

This is what you said, "I still stand by that prediction though, albeit now I have revised it by around 15 to 20M. So now it stands at 50M to 60M lifetime"

 

Again, i dont care that you changed your prediction. Im telling you what you said was a contradiction.


Nintendo raising their forcast is 10000% irrelevent to what we are talking about.

Sigh.... ok.

I have tried to explain why... I have given you reasons and scenarios. At the end of the day, what I did I revise my original prediction. Now I have a new one. So maybe I should have said I stand by my reasoning and not my prediction if that somehow would have avoided all this being that I changed my prediction. 

So let me rephrase.... I stand by my reasoning but underestimated the value proposition that was $299 when making my earlier prediction. Now I have raised my prediction and I am making it clear that if nintendo gets that price down sooner rather than later and can get a good deal more third party support then that number is only bound to go up.

Better?

And nintendo revising their estimates.... actually thats even underselling it as in their case they would have had to change a lot to increase production ha everything to do with this. Cause as i said, if nintendo can make adjustments, why can't we? Especially when you consider that most of these predictions were made at a time when nintendo announced only 8M total shipments for the fiscal year..... extrapolate that and arriving at 40M doesn't seem that far fetched.



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Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

What makes you think im not relaxed?

Im not saying you arent allowed to change your prediction. That never once came out of my mouth.

Im saying changing your prediction by a large amount means you dont stand by it.

This is what you said, "I still stand by that prediction though, albeit now I have revised it by around 15 to 20M. So now it stands at 50M to 60M lifetime"

 

Again, i dont care that you changed your prediction. Im telling you what you said was a contradiction.


Nintendo raising their forcast is 10000% irrelevent to what we are talking about.

Sigh.... ok.

I have tried to explain why... I have given you reasons and scenarios. At the end of the day, what I did I revise my original prediction. Now I have a new one. So maybe I should have said I stand by my reasoning and not my prediction if that somehow would have avoided all this being that I changed my prediction. 

So let me rephrase.... I stand by my reasoning but underestimated the value proposition that was $299 when making my earlier prediction. Now I have raised my prediction and I am making it clear that if nintendo gets that price down sooner rather than later and can get a good deal more third party support then that number is only bound to go up.

Better?

And nintendo revising their estimates.... actually thats even underselling it as in their case they would have had to change a lot to increase production ha everything to do with this. Cause as i said, if nintendo can make adjustments, why can't we? Especially when you consider that most of these predictions were made at a time when nintendo announced only 8M total shipments for the fiscal year..... extrapolate that and arriving at 40M doesn't seem that far fetched.

Thats better, like i said before you cant stand by something while changing it.

Thats like saying, "i stand by his word.......except when hes lying"

Does that make sense to you?

 

I have no problem with you changing your prediction when things change, it would be ignorant not to. The only issue i had was the "stand by" quote.

 

As for Nintendo, they never forcasted 8m, it was originally 10m and stated they believe it could be higher.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

The software results were much better than I expected overall, and they reached their target on harwardware.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

RolStoppable said:

UPDATE: April 26th, 2018

Nintendo Switch has completed its first full fiscal year and has been on the market for 13 months in total.

Switch - 17.79m (+2.93m this quarter)
Super Mario Odyssey - 10.41m (+1.34m)
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 9.22m (+1.89m)
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 8.48m (+1.78m)
Splatoon 2 - 6.02m (+1.11m)
1-2-Switch - 2.29m (+0.41m)
ARMS - 1.85m (+0.24m)
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 1.31m (+0.25m)
Kirby Star Allies - 1.26m (NEW)

The first 10m seller is in the books with Super Mario Odyssey while Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is bound to follow in the next quarter. Breath of the Wild could go either way next quarter, but is guaranteed to cross 10m in 2018. Splatoon 2 has a much longer road ahead of it, but will eventually get there.

For the fiscal year ending March 2019, Nintendo is forecasting Switch hardware shipments of 20m units which would bring the LTD total to 37.79m. Switch had passed Wii U lifetime shipments by December 2017, the next Nintendo console in front of it is the GameCube at 21.74m. This mark is very unlikely to be reached by June 2018, but it will be comfortably surpassed during the quarter that ends in September 2018.

3.95 million away from Gamecube so like you said probably wont reach it by end of June but will easily by end of Sept.

About 15 million away from N64, should pass it by end of Dec.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

E3 will be very interesting this year. Nintendo needs to keep the momentum, hope they got something up their sleeve. Pretty nice numbers though, thanks for keeping up with all this Rol. Good work.



"You should be banned. Youre clearly flaming the president and even his brother who you know nothing about. Dont be such a partisan hack"

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Great work, Rol. How do you see Labo performing, out of curiosity?



IkePoR said:
E3 will be very interesting this year. Nintendo needs to keep the momentum, hope they got something up their sleeve. Pretty nice numbers though, thanks for keeping up with all this Rol. Good work.

I agree, but honestly, if they show the games we know they’re working on (SSB, MP4, AC, Pokémon and FE) it would be one of the best E3shows I’ve ever watched. Don’t even have to show them all actually. 



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

IkePoR said:
E3 will be very interesting this year. Nintendo needs to keep the momentum, hope they got something up their sleeve. Pretty nice numbers though, thanks for keeping up with all this Rol. Good work.

Well they have Smash set for this year along with Pokemon listed as "2018 or later" so it could be something like Smash in September+Pokemon in November or Smash in Nov+Pokemon in March.

Either way, those are both potential 15+ million sellers on top of a bunch of 1-3 million sellers they are publishing this fiscal year like Donkey Kong, Hyrule Warriors, Mario Tennis, Captain Toad, Octopath Traveler, Yoshi, Fire Emblem.

Also, Labo has potential to become a big casual hit along the lines of something like Brain Age, Nintendogs or Wii Fit.

Then there is the 3rd party support, it has great indie support and a solid lineup of retail titles like South Park, Wolfenstein, Dark Souls, Okami, Ys, Vakyria Chronicles, Mega Man, Crash Bandicoot, Ark and rumored titles like GTA V & Fortnite.

 

The lineup for this fiscal year is looking very solid and Nintendo could always release bundles or holiday deals to ensure strong sales.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

RolStoppable said:
Asriel said:
Great work, Rol. How do you see Labo performing, out of curiosity?

That's very hard to say because there's no precedence for this exact type of product. There's a lot of potential because it's a novel idea and at least the Variety Kit caters to many different interests. The Robot Kit is much more limited because its premise is tailored to boys, and it already shows in the early sales data we got from Japan (Variety Kit outsold Robot Kit by 3:1).

I think the Variety Kit will perform well enough for Nintendo to roll out new kits in addition to the current ones, so Labo will be more than just two games. The primary target demographic (6-12 year old kids) of Labo will skew the effect on hardware sales heavily towards the holiday season, because kids don't have $350+ lying around, so they are dependent on gifts and Christmas always trumps birthdays and is always on the same day of the year for everyone. If Labo manages to stay relevant for a few years, the hardware price of Switch will eventually be less of a barrier. Labo could become similar to Skylanders. As in, being a hot item among kids that everyone needs to have. 

zorg1000 has said that he can see Labo becoming as big as Wii Fit, Brain Training and Nintendogs, but I don't see a success story of that magnitude. It's plausible that the Variety Kit sells 5m+ in its lifetime, but that's still a far cry from the aforementioned games. Maybe if all Labo Kits were added up, then we could get to 20m+, but that's cheating. 10m for all kits combined is as high as I am inclined to go at this point in time. Chances are that future kits are more specific like the Robot one and therefore less appealing.

In the current fiscal year that is forecasted to have shipments of 20m Switch units, Nintendo must be confident in what they have with Labo, Super Smash Bros. and possibly Pokémon or a big unannounced title. They are basically banking on a 10m holiday quarter because Q1 of this fiscal year will be ~3m and Q2 won't be much better. They need 10m during the holiday quarter and close out the fiscal year with a Q4 of ~3.5m.

The last paragraph: not necessarily, Rol. They could release a big game on September, for example, like Smash or Animal Crossing, and significantly boost Q2 shipments. Maybe Pokémon will be an early 2019 game too, that would boost Q4 a lot too.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

zorg1000 said:
RolStoppable said:

UPDATE: April 26th, 2018

Nintendo Switch has completed its first full fiscal year and has been on the market for 13 months in total.

Switch - 17.79m (+2.93m this quarter)
Super Mario Odyssey - 10.41m (+1.34m)
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 9.22m (+1.89m)
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 8.48m (+1.78m)
Splatoon 2 - 6.02m (+1.11m)
1-2-Switch - 2.29m (+0.41m)
ARMS - 1.85m (+0.24m)
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 1.31m (+0.25m)
Kirby Star Allies - 1.26m (NEW)

The first 10m seller is in the books with Super Mario Odyssey while Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is bound to follow in the next quarter. Breath of the Wild could go either way next quarter, but is guaranteed to cross 10m in 2018. Splatoon 2 has a much longer road ahead of it, but will eventually get there.

For the fiscal year ending March 2019, Nintendo is forecasting Switch hardware shipments of 20m units which would bring the LTD total to 37.79m. Switch had passed Wii U lifetime shipments by December 2017, the next Nintendo console in front of it is the GameCube at 21.74m. This mark is very unlikely to be reached by June 2018, but it will be comfortably surpassed during the quarter that ends in September 2018.

3.95 million away from Gamecube so like you said probably wont reach it by end of June but will easily by end of Sept.

About 15 million away from N64, should pass it by end of Dec.

I think Switch has a shot at beating GameCube, there's a few weeks of sales after E3 and, if they have a good showing, people will start buying Switches