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Forums - Politics Discussion - How well do you think the economy is going in the next few years?

Kerotan said:
mai said:

Everyone is biased. If you're from Ireland like your profile suggests, you're lucky one, it's most finest bankrupts from them all. Of course, US will look good from Ireland. At least after all said and done and great deal of the Americans work for food and bankrupt shale oil companies are bought by oil giants, they could make this industry profitable again. Ireland, I'm afraid, will be back to growing potatos. But again, maybe it's only me, who has rather grim look at everything when it comes to the world economic crisis.


In general despite one of the biggest fuck ups ever Ireland is actually in a decent state and the future is bright.  The U S of A is in a much better position and as I said they will go from strength to strength.  Their unemployment rate is very low all things considered. 

That's what they want you to believe to attract more "fools capitals", without much detail...

People should drop illusions that any kind of growth is sustainable and the situation with debt could be resolved without hitting hard reset button, i.e. hyperinflation. I'm just trying to put myself in the shoes of the decision makers who have direct access to Fed's money-printing machine, i.e. suggest the best case scenario for the US (and worst case scenario for everyone else as this's a zero-sum game).

In order hyperinflation to have a good therapeutic effect on US economy it needs to be prepared. Part of this preparation is maximum achievable desctruction of other financial systems and accumulation of worlds capitals as much as possible. In order for hyperinflation to have a possitve effect within the country and to be a first wave of attack at worlds economy, US need to run a full-blown campaign of dollar strengthening. Say, if dollar will grow for years in a row with zero inflation or even deflation and relatively high treasuries rates -- it'll reassure market participants that it's the most desirable payment and reservation instrument. At the moment all criteria match for a "healthy" strengthening of the dollar for a year or two except rates.

Time will tell if I'm right or wrong, but if I do, expect hyperinflation to be the last stage before a big war.



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Actually I dissed the Irish economy earlier. They announced today that it grew at over 4% last year faster than any other EU country. Unemployment dropping fast. With the weakened euro exports to the UK and US are going to be up big time. Positive signs and much needed after out greedy bankers pressed the self destruct button.



del



mai said:

That's what they want you to believe to attract more "fools capitals", without much detail...

People should drop illusions that any kind of growth is sustainable and the situation with debt could be resolved without hitting hard reset button, i.e. hyperinflation. I'm just trying to put myself in the shoes of the decision makers who have direct access to Fed's money-printing machine, i.e. suggest the best case scenario for the US (and worst case scenario for everyone else as this's a zero-sum game).

In order hyperinflation to have a good therapeutic effect on US economy it needs to be prepared. Part of this preparation is maximum achievable desctruction of other financial systems and accumulation of worlds capitals as much as possible. In order for hyperinflation to have a possitve effect within the country and to be a first wave of attack at worlds economy, US need to run a full-blown campaign of dollar strengthening. Say, if dollar will grow for years in a row with zero inflation or even deflation and relatively high treasuries rates -- it'll reassure market participants that it's the most desirable payment and reservation instrument. At the moment all criteria match for a "healthy" strengthening of the dollar for a year or two except rates.

Time will tell if I'm right or wrong, but if I do, expect hyperinflation to be the last stage before a big war.

Hate to break it to you, but the EU is already going down the path travelled by the Weimar Republic prior to October 1923.

National central banks are already buying their own nations' government debt, effectively solving debt by unleashing the printing presses. Two things to note are that Greece is not included in the program, and that Germany, despite their resistance to this because of the said hyperinflation by the Weimar Republic, is largely trodding behind on the same path; that is to say that they're included in the program.

Draghi's "anything-it-takes" bazooka is going to backfire hard once the money actually gets into the system and out of asset bubbles.



 
I WON A BET AGAINST AZUREN! WOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

:3

Greece and Germany getting really bitter with eachother lately. Bringing up WW2. They do have a point. They received massive right downs and were rebuilt by the US. They should be a little more lenient to other countries. Very short memories. And Ireland bailed them out a few billion. That should have been written off or else covered by Germany or the EU.



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Kerotan said:
mai said:

Everyone is biased. If you're from Ireland like your profile suggests, you're lucky one, it's most finest bankrupts from them all. Of course, US will look good from Ireland. At least after all said and done and great deal of the Americans work for food and bankrupt shale oil companies are bought by oil giants, they could make this industry profitable again. Ireland, I'm afraid, will be back to growing potatos. But again, maybe it's only me, who has rather grim look at everything when it comes to the world economic crisis.


In general despite one of the biggest fuck ups ever Ireland is actually in a decent state and the future is bright.  The U S of A is in a much better position and as I said they will go from strength to strength.  Their unemployment rate is very low all things considered. 

Misleading data. our unemployment numbers as released by the government are not accurate. Better to look at labor participation rate (the actual number of peple not working vs working) which is at an all time low last I remember. We will not go from strength to strength. We will be luky to limp along with the rest of the world. The business climate over here is horrible, to much red tape and regulation is strangling off new business and start ups.



The Bloomberg ECO U.S. Surprise Index, which measures whether data beat or miss forecasts, fell to the lowest since 2009, when the nation was in the deepest recession since the Great Depression.

 




There's been one notable exception to the gloom, and it's a big one: payrolls. The economy added 295,000 jobs in February and 1.3 million over four months, a reflection of a healthier labor market in which the unemployment rate has fallen to the lowest in almost seven years. 

Most everything else? Blah.

This month alone, personal income and spending, manufacturing as measured by the Institute for Supply Management, auto sales, factory orders, and retail sales have all come in a bit weak.

Citigroup keeps economic surprise indexes for the world, and its scoreboard shows the U.S. is most disappointing relative to consensus forecasts, with Latin America and Canada next, as of March 12. Emerging markets were supposed to be hurt by falling oil prices but are now delivering positive surprises. U.S. policymakers frequently talk about weakness in Europe and China, though both are exceeding expectations.

And there's one rub. The surprise shortfall in the U.S. doesn't necessarily mean the world's largest economy is in dire straights. It's just falling short of some perhaps overly elevated expectations.

Where are the data beating economists' forecasts most consistently? Sweden.

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of BMO Private Bank in Chicago, said he pays attention to the surprise indexes as a way to gauge when a particular national economy may be turning and looks for good value in equities.

"It is an early indication of a momentum shift," he said, adding that he's been raising the amount of money put into international stocks. While Ablin expects moderate U.S. growth, he said a strong U.S. dollar has the potential to dampen the expansion.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave no hint of concern in recent congressional testimony, where she cited an "overall improvement in the U.S. economy and the U.S. economic outlook," boosted by lower oil prices.

The data slump may give the Federal Open Market Committee reason to wait before raising rates, said Jonathan Wright, a professor at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore who worked at the Fed’s division of monetary affairs from 2004 until 2008.

First-quarter U.S. growth forecasts continue to be cut, and like last year, weather is getting a share of the blame.

JPMorgan Chase's Michael Feroli cut his forecast to 2 percent from 2.5 percent on March 6. Barclays Capital has reduced its estimate to 1.5 percent as of March 12. Macroeconomic Advisers' tracking forecast was lowered to 1.7 percent on March 12.

 

Source Bloomberg.




Barozi said:
WolfpackN64 said:
As for the EU, and more specific in my country Belgium. Austerity measures are starting to cut down the growth, job creation they promised is being undercut by other cuts and cuts in education are starting to threaten our long-term economic sustainability.

In Germany, even though the economy keeps growing, so does the percentage of people without jobs. Germany's economy will most likely collapse on itself if they do nothing to solve this major problem. The rest of the EU might unfortunately follow Germany's route.

The US, while doing great now, will start to slow down again once oil prices rise, but economically, they seem stable enough at the moment, though a long term collapse of the EU's economy might severely impact the US' economy.

Japan will probably stay flatlined, nothing bad, nothing good.

As for China, that motor will continue to run for a decade or 2 before they start having a smaller, but healthier growth, their story is far from over.

Huh that's not even close to be true? Where did you get that from?

It's been the lowest since our reunification.
http://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1224/umfrage/arbeitslosenquote-in-deutschland-seit-1995/
(Numbers for 2015 only include the January and February, which of course are slower months)

Using the EU methodology we're at ~5%.

My apologies, I confounded my Germany numbers with another EU country.



thranx said:
Kerotan said:
mai said:

Everyone is biased. If you're from Ireland like your profile suggests, you're lucky one, it's most finest bankrupts from them all. Of course, US will look good from Ireland. At least after all said and done and great deal of the Americans work for food and bankrupt shale oil companies are bought by oil giants, they could make this industry profitable again. Ireland, I'm afraid, will be back to growing potatos. But again, maybe it's only me, who has rather grim look at everything when it comes to the world economic crisis.


In general despite one of the biggest fuck ups ever Ireland is actually in a decent state and the future is bright.  The U S of A is in a much better position and as I said they will go from strength to strength.  Their unemployment rate is very low all things considered. 

Misleading data. our unemployment numbers as released by the government are not accurate. Better to look at labor participation rate (the actual number of peple not working vs working) which is at an all time low last I remember. We will not go from strength to strength. We will be luky to limp along with the rest of the world. The business climate over here is horrible, to much red tape and regulation is strangling off new business and start ups.


its not to much regulation, its just badly made regulation.  we in germany regulate every fuckn piece of a product. but its made in a working manner, so it makes products better(like cars or watches, or beer)



generic-user-1 said:
thranx said:
Kerotan said:
mai said:

Everyone is biased. If you're from Ireland like your profile suggests, you're lucky one, it's most finest bankrupts from them all. Of course, US will look good from Ireland. At least after all said and done and great deal of the Americans work for food and bankrupt shale oil companies are bought by oil giants, they could make this industry profitable again. Ireland, I'm afraid, will be back to growing potatos. But again, maybe it's only me, who has rather grim look at everything when it comes to the world economic crisis.


In general despite one of the biggest fuck ups ever Ireland is actually in a decent state and the future is bright.  The U S of A is in a much better position and as I said they will go from strength to strength.  Their unemployment rate is very low all things considered. 

Misleading data. our unemployment numbers as released by the government are not accurate. Better to look at labor participation rate (the actual number of peple not working vs working) which is at an all time low last I remember. We will not go from strength to strength. We will be luky to limp along with the rest of the world. The business climate over here is horrible, to much red tape and regulation is strangling off new business and start ups.


its not to much regulation, its just badly made regulation.  we in germany regulate every fuckn piece of a product. but its made in a working manner, so it makes products better(like cars or watches, or beer)

Its too much regulation.