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Forums - Politics Discussion - How well do you think the economy is going in the next few years?

JazzB1987 on 16 April 2015

as good as the "people behind all that crap" want it to be and as soon as they want to make some more money they will again crash some stock markets or pop some bubbles and then sell people gold that does not even exist



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MikeRox on 16 April 2015
generic-user-1 said:
MikeRox said:
I think Europe is very much dependant on what Greece does (there are rumours they plan defaulting on their next repayments) but Greek officials have dismissed that as nonsense.

UK depends how the general election goes. The current situation is really dragging the value of sterling down, however that's kind of a good thing for our exporters. The problem is, it's starting to offset savings from such as the low oil prices meaning we're not getting anywhere near the same benefit from that in our economy (lower pound means oil costs us more to import as our currency is at a 5 year low against the dollar)

I do think countries like Germany need to start spending a bit more and stop hoarding (maintaining a large trade surplus) as doing this is invariably causing the Eurozone's stubbornness for growth. It's sapping the demand out of the rest of the zone meaning there is nothing to create the demand to enable growth.

Not really clued up enough about other economies at the moment to really put much forward.

greece isnt such a big problem, its 400b € debt and its mostly hold by EU states.   the ecb QE is a much bigger problem, they are pushing some AAA bonds into negative yields, thats not good for the banks and will create a bubble in central europe(with a negative bund you can get realy cheap loans).

and the germans will not spend more because they like savings to much to consume on credit, and there isnt much they are willing to buy from other EU states, you just can buy so much oliveoil from greece and wine from spain. french or italian cars arent that hot, and electronics come from china.

 


Greece itself isn't a major problem. However the questions it raises (exit from the EU and Euro isn't officially possible) gives scope for markets to suddenly turn their attention to Italy, Spain and Portugal. They're only just starting to settle down now.

The purpose of negative yeilds is that it's meant to encourage investors to put their money elsewhere.  We're also toying with negative interest rates in the UK to try and stop people shoving all their money in the safe places.

Very basic view of the other manufacturing that Greece Spain etc put out. But as long as Germany is getting all the exporting, and not buying from other nations too, Europe will never get out of it's current slump. Wasn't it even the IMF that have now said Germany's current fiscal policy is pretty much the key reason the Eurozone is now refusing to recover?



RIP Dad 25/11/51 - 13/12/13. You will be missed but never forgotten.

generic-user-1 on 16 April 2015
MikeRox said:
generic-user-1 said:
MikeRox said:
I think Europe is very much dependant on what Greece does (there are rumours they plan defaulting on their next repayments) but Greek officials have dismissed that as nonsense.

UK depends how the general election goes. The current situation is really dragging the value of sterling down, however that's kind of a good thing for our exporters. The problem is, it's starting to offset savings from such as the low oil prices meaning we're not getting anywhere near the same benefit from that in our economy (lower pound means oil costs us more to import as our currency is at a 5 year low against the dollar)

I do think countries like Germany need to start spending a bit more and stop hoarding (maintaining a large trade surplus) as doing this is invariably causing the Eurozone's stubbornness for growth. It's sapping the demand out of the rest of the zone meaning there is nothing to create the demand to enable growth.

Not really clued up enough about other economies at the moment to really put much forward.

greece isnt such a big problem, its 400b € debt and its mostly hold by EU states.   the ecb QE is a much bigger problem, they are pushing some AAA bonds into negative yields, thats not good for the banks and will create a bubble in central europe(with a negative bund you can get realy cheap loans).

and the germans will not spend more because they like savings to much to consume on credit, and there isnt much they are willing to buy from other EU states, you just can buy so much oliveoil from greece and wine from spain. french or italian cars arent that hot, and electronics come from china.

 


Greece itself isn't a major problem. However the questions it raises (exit from the EU and Euro isn't officially possible) gives scope for markets to suddenly turn their attention to Italy, Spain and Portugal. They're only just starting to settle down now.

The purpose of negative yeilds is that it's meant to encourage investors to put their money elsewhere.  We're also toying with negative interest rates in the UK to try and stop people shoving all their money in the safe places.

Very basic view of the other manufacturing that Greece Spain etc put out. But as long as Germany is getting all the exporting, and not buying from other nations too, Europe will never get out of it's current slump. Wasn't it even the IMF that have now said Germany's current fiscal policy is pretty much the key reason the Eurozone is now refusing to recover?

the EURO zone is recovering, way better than the US, but a real recovery takes much longer than just fueling a oil  bubble with bad secured loans and making shady shit between the fed and some banks. and the IWF is a bunch of monkeys that have no idea of fiscal policy or economy, they never had succes in any country, and they are the number 1 reason for the problems in greece, they cut social systems but they dont wanna see higher taxes for the rich, that leads to deflation and depression because the people have less money and have to save more money because they cant trust the social net so much.