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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo's 3.6 mil forecast for Wii U - will they achieve it?

Hedra42 said:

At the beginning of May, it was reported that Nintendo had released a much more conservative forecast for Wii U for this fiscal year - 3.6 million units by March 31 2015. Mario Kart 8 and Smash Bros are the two strongest releases expected for the Wii U this year; the latter, along with its Amiibo figures, slated for 'winter', which could mean there's a chance it will miss the holiday season. Other games such as Hyrule Warriors and Bayonetta 2 will no doubt help things along, and Splatoon could be an additional wild card if it is released before the fiscal year end.

However, we are 16 weeks into the fiscal year ending March 2015, (30% of the fiscal year gone) and so far, according to VGChartz, 844k Wii U units have been sold. This is far less than 30% of their target, and MK8 has already been out nearly 2 months. We're not quite at the end of the bonus game window yet, but already the Wii U sales are settling down.

Are the current sales to date within Nintendo's expectations in terms of their forecast? Will the triple whammy of MK8, Smash Bros and Amiibo (if released on time for the holiday season) have what it takes to keep Wii U sales on target?

Should Nintendo be concerned at this point that they might miss their targets again? Or does everything look like it's on track? Or is it simply too early to tell?


The release is 'winter 2014'.



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I am sure it will. Holidays are coming, Smash and possibly Zelda before fiscal year ends along with other sought after titles, cheaper bundles, and overall a greater interest in the Wii U.



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Ka-pi96 said:

They will still get a huge xmas boost.

Honestly, if the Wii U doesn't achieve that target I'll eat my hat, just like this.

do
you own a wii u:P?



It SHOULD be able to achieve it and then some no issue. If Nintendo hypes all their holiday games and advertises them they should be fine.



"I think it will be the HDS"-Me in regards to Nintendo's next handheld.

Viltgance said:
daredevil.shark said:
Its achievable. But the PS4 hype is really strong. And destiny will dominate everything in this holiday.


Ps4 hype is dead


Yet PS4 keeps outselling Wii U / Xbox One without any games. Lol. Plus we all know that Wii U is kinda dead.



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Yeah they'll achieve it. Before MK8 released, the Wii U averaged around 25-30k weekly. Now its risen to 50-60k weekly. If you also consider the big boost it will get in the holidays, then they should easily reach that target, as long as they continue to sell at least 50k every week.



    

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Ka-pi96 said:

They will still get a huge xmas boost.

Honestly, if the Wii U doesn't achieve that target I'll eat my hat, just like this.

That is cute...



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It all depends on the Holidays.

They got rid of 1 million already, this Christmas has potential to achieve those numbers thanks to MK8 heavy promotion, plus Bayo 2, Smash, etc



...Let the Sony Domination continue with the PS4...
Aielyn said:
Wait a few more days. Nintendo's Q1 financial report happens very soon, and it'll include some updated release details, etc. Speculating on it right now is a bit silly.

By the way, 844k being sold so far is actually a strong result for 30% of the period, because Nintendo system sales are always far higher during the holidays. To make the point, consider that, in 2013, April to July, Wii U sold 446k... and then, in November alone, it sold 466k... and in December, it sold 1.14 million units. If we assume that 844k is the equivalent for this year, then we'd expect about 882k in November and 2.16 million in December. So just adding together November and December, you get over 3 million, and with current sales added, it's nearly 3.9 million. That's without August-October or January-March 2015.

Great analysis! I hope it holds true. I cant remember what games came out in April-July last year... wasnt that time frame pretty barren?



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Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

The Wii U will beat the forecast, this is not even up for debate in my opinion. Nintendo set such a lower estimate that it will be beaten quite easily.