Now, don't get me wrong, 7th gen has some really great games. I'm not saying that this was a bad gen, but there is definitely a couple of notes to take away from it, and interesting trend leads to notice. There are a lot of armchair analysts who will always spout the same kind of nonsense superficial analysis that's been mainstream for years. It's important not to fall into those traps....but where necessary, I will do my best to point out these contrarian indicators.
1. Entry Level. The entry level into 7th gen was ridiculously high. Costs were beyond acceptable. PS3 was based on very complex architecture with something like 6 months to a year of necessary experience to meet desired results. Xbox360 was much lower thanks to its pc-like architecture, and wii, though easy to develop for, required more thought to account for the new technology. This factor shut out a lot of development due to the costs, and helps to account for the influx of quality xbox library content early on, especially in the digital scene like trials and shadow complex. This also contributed to the ability of developers to produce quality visuals on what was technically an inferior system. But this entry level applied not only to the devs, but to the consumers, which further promoted the inequality between costs going in and revenues.
2. This created an ecosystem of high costs. The only developers who could really afford to develop for the hd-twins were the big developers, and we've seen the aftermath of flops as well, with many dev studios closing down due to their inability to meet expectations. Devs were literally afraid to make games. Combine this with soem really huge games like call of duty, gears, halo, uncharted, metal gear, mario all breaking records and the result is an industry where the successes only lie in the big franchises, or in gambling on the seemingly unpredictable wii market. One thing is certain here. The games that did well this gen (for the most part) were established ip franchises with predictable fanbases, or made by major developers. The instability of this market lead devs to play safe, sticking to core franchises and trying to survive off of yearly installments. It was a predictable and smart option to maintain viability. As a caveat, had some devs actually sunk money into making wii games, they could have done very nicely, as one of the only reasons wii was so unpredictable was that devs were trying to score huge successes off of relatively low entry costs. They were putting all their chips on black (hd) with a single bet on a number (wii), leaving everything to luck. Well made games on wii sold well. Wii was actually very predictable.
3. This ecosystem created malaise. It created repetition. It created disinterest. It was self-cannibalizing. I would be honestly surprised if any of the yearly installment games like call of duty survive in this upcoming gen. Some might argue that we had varied games. And I'll agree. There were a lot of interesting good games. Were there enough? I don't think so. I can evidence it with the opinion of most gamers during seventh gen that in order to enjoy gaming you had to buy all the systems. It's nonsensical. There clearly weren't enough options. However, you will notice that as time went on, entry costs went down, and adoption rates went up, that mroe and more original content was released. The best years for gaming during 7, were 2011-2013.
This write-up isn't really meant to surprise gamers. It's just a simple description of what happened, and my thoughts on where we are moving forward.
In my opinion, entry level made getting original and varied content difficult early on, which really helped to strengthen the wii boom, as well as strengthen the challengers (xbox) position in the market. While there were gems here and there, it wasn't until later in the gen that the industry started becoming healthy again. Looking forward, the newfound baseline for indie developers will really help to strengthen the marketplace. The return to normalcy should help even out the brands once again. PS, being the leader in indie support and low entry level should return to dominance, which predictably will eat up the xbox marketshare. While I do not believe ps4 can see ps2 levels of sales, I do think we are going to see a return to 6th gen trends.
Moving forward:
WiiU will do really well so long as the support continues. With some new direction by Nintendo staffing, we could see a nice battle with xb1 for second place.
PS4 will return to dominance easily. Having the strongest system, and their strategy of indie support, less gamers will feel like they ALSO need the main competitor to "have enough to play". A basic prediction for the system would have to be around 110-130m+
XB1 has done significant damage to itself, and has picked the wrong strategy for the gen. If this holiday fails to bring in substantial numbers, the system may soon after see xbox #1 (Original xbox) levels.
