The other thread about Miyamoto’s comments seems to have centered around Halo and Mario so I figured a new thread would be useful for Zelda. Miyamoto makes two points that many are conflating but that I think should be considered separate. The first is that he isn’t happy with Zelda:TP’s sales in Japan which seems to have fed the “Zelda is dying” train of thought. The second is that Zelda has lost the interest of gamers or become stale if you will.
Except for Japan I think it’s a bit ridiculous to say Zelda is on the decline and dying is too much of a stretch even for Japan (it has sold 600k which is still pretty good). Twilight Princess is already the 4th best selling Zelda game worldwide and is closing in on 3rd with nearly 4.5 million sold. In Japan it’s the worst selling though it will probably surpass Wind Waker and Majora’s Mask. In North America it’s the 3rd best selling (2.5 million) and in Others only Ocarina of Time has outsold it (1.3 million). This performance is even better when you consider that Wii + GameCube is still below any other Nintendo home console in units sold.
The following list shows why I think Zelda is far from dying. Best to worst selling by release (1-original Zelda, 2- Zelda 2, etc.) with likely ending place of TP at the end.
Declining- 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. 7th
Worldwide- 4, 1, 3, 7, 2, 6, 5. 3rd
Japan- 1, 2, 4, 3, 5, 6, 7. 5th
America- 4, 1, 7, 3, 6, 2, 5. 3rd
Others- 4, 7, 6, 1, 3, 5, 2. 2nd
Interestingly this shows the divide that I think exists between Zelda, Zelda 3, Zelda 64, and Zelda:TP (the core games) and Zelda 2, Majora’s Mask, and Wind Waker (the “different” ones). The core games sell better than the different ones and I think the notion of decline stems from the fact that the prior two games were different. I think that shows the series isn’t becoming stale to most. Some may have tired of it but some tire of every game. I’ve personally grown tired of Halo but that doesn’t mean I’d say it’s in decline just because of that or even if Halo 3 only sells 5-6 million. Same with Final Fantasy which I got tired of after FFIII, doesn’t means it’s stale or in decline because the last 2 are 5th and 6th in sales. So arguing over the "staleness" of Zelda is a bit beside the point since everyone has a different opinion on the matter. Even more specious is to combine an individual American's opinion with Japanese sales and then combing them into a universal assumption.
That being said I do think Zelda has two growing problems. The first is that they are getting easier with every iteration. I probably died more playing the original Zelda than I have in all the 3D Zeldas combined (the last 2 I didn’t die at all except when I wanted to). I think that is the franchise’s main problem in Japan. The second is that Zelda has steadily become less open-ended and more linear. The first Zelda allowed you to go virtually anywhere you wanted and even play the dungeons out of order. Twilight Princess felt like it was leading me around everywhere, I never felt like I had a chance to just go explore or do things when I wanted. I don’t think they are getting stale since the 4 core games that follow the traditional Zelda model are the best selling. It’s the different games that change the model that don’t sell as well.
So the sales don't justify the notion that the Zelda franchise is stale overall or in decline. Sorry if that was long, I’m and unabashed Zelda whore so this topic is of particular interest to me.
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