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Forums - Sales Discussion - 360 adjusted DOWN Ps3 adjusted UP!!!!

colafitte on 18 October 2013
chapset said:
colafitte said:

I've noticed that Europe suddenly sells a lot more than USA

164k USA vs 234k Europe last week

I mean total hardware

fifa week?

Mmmm, no but it was second week of FIFA, i didn't notice. Maybe that's the reason...



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SSJGohan3972 on 18 October 2013
kowenicki said:
Normando said:
theprof00 said:
I agree with Kowen, there was no need for an adjustment to 360 aside from simply where the sold consoles were. 1.5m on shelves would mean that they've specifically ordered quite a lot for their own stores. Maybe they're inticipating a lot of demand after Don's infamous quote. :D


unlikely. There are only about 65 MS stores so even if they each got a ton of 360s it would only account for a small number of the retail stock. As I said in my earlier post odds are you have about 1.5m worldwide thanks to stores like Walmart, Gamestop, Target, and Bestbuy. Worldwide you have a huge number of these stores that need stock.

11,000 Walmarts

6,600 Gamestops

2,900 Best buys

1,800 Targets

It's also important to remember than retail stock doesn't mean on store shelves. Retail stock also includes retail store backrooms, distribution centers, online retailer warehouses.

Interesting.

so how do you account for the supply of the PS3 being around 0.5m most of time accordiong to VGC, especially considering the PS3 is on sale in a lot more markets than the 360?

hint: you're wrong.

That's easy, sold to consumer numbers should probably be lower for PS3 not necessarily that 360 sold to consumer numbers should be higher

 

hint: I'm not saying your wrong or he's right I'm saying he has just as much chance of being right as you do as you are both totally guessing and he is at least using logic and numbers to make an educated guess.



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theprof00 on 18 October 2013
Normando said:
theprof00 said:
I agree with Kowen, there was no need for an adjustment to 360 aside from simply where the sold consoles were. 1.5m on shelves would mean that they've specifically ordered quite a lot for their own stores. Maybe they're inticipating a lot of demand after Don's infamous quote. :D


unlikely. There are only about 65 MS stores so even if they each got a ton of 360s it would only account for a small number of the retail stock. As I said in my earlier post odds are you have about 1.5m worldwide thanks to stores like Walmart, Gamestop, Target, and Bestbuy. Worldwide you have a huge number of these stores that need stock.

11,000 Walmarts

6,600 Gamestops

2,900 Best buys

1,800 Targets

It's also important to remember than retail stock doesn't mean on store shelves. Retail stock also includes retail store backrooms, distribution centers, online retailer warehouses.

Meh, 1.5m is still really too big...especially for October. The comment about MS own stores was just a joke. Even with online distribution (not including their own stores or Best Buy kiosks) they could only possibly hold 100k, and that's with an anticipated price drop which is very unlikely until holidays (still too early).

Even all those stores, if they had 100 consoles each, it would only be a million. Seems like far too much doesn't it?

My guess is each one has ~10 with enough distribution supply for 1-2 complete turnovers, which equals about 300k +50k or so for wholeseller stores like costco/BJs.

If I had to guess, assuming they pushed out more consoles early (in order to focus on xb1 production), with enough supply for ~25 per store world wide, and 80m as of October 17th, I would say numbers are in the area of .4-.6m undertracked, and roughly 900k to 1m in retail channels.



Serious_frusting on 18 October 2013

I didnt think Wii-u sales could have been any lower to be honest.

Go PS3 go. To think everyone called me crazy back in the day when I told them the PS3 would do well



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bubblegamer on 18 October 2013

The difference will be even bigger going forward. I expect the gap to grow close to 3 million by the end of the year.



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Adobo on 18 October 2013
Serious_frusting said:
I didnt think Wii-u sales could have been any lower to be honest.

Go PS3 go. To think everyone called me crazy back in the day when I told them the PS3 would do well


who? 1 or two people here?    1000 people will say PS3 #1  only 2 here says doooomm!



colafitte on 18 October 2013

mmm VGC shows:

USA 6'8 million total hardware YTD
Europe 8'3 million total hardware YTD
Japan 5'8 million total hardware YTD

USA is way behind Europe, and it's surprisngly near Japan numbers....Is this even possible??



Normando on 18 October 2013
kowenicki said:
Normando said:
theprof00 said:
I agree with Kowen, there was no need for an adjustment to 360 aside from simply where the sold consoles were. 1.5m on shelves would mean that they've specifically ordered quite a lot for their own stores. Maybe they're inticipating a lot of demand after Don's infamous quote. :D


unlikely. There are only about 65 MS stores so even if they each got a ton of 360s it would only account for a small number of the retail stock. As I said in my earlier post odds are you have about 1.5m worldwide thanks to stores like Walmart, Gamestop, Target, and Bestbuy. Worldwide you have a huge number of these stores that need stock.

11,000 Walmarts

6,600 Gamestops

2,900 Best buys

1,800 Targets

It's also important to remember than retail stock doesn't mean on store shelves. Retail stock also includes retail store backrooms, distribution centers, online retailer warehouses.

Interesting.

so how do you account for the supply of the PS3 being around 0.5m most of time accordiong to VGC, especially considering the PS3 is on sale in a lot more markets than the 360?

hint: you're wrong.

Where are you getting .5m PS3s? Also, I'm not saying that's it's a surefire 1.5m (or 1.4m which is the actual gap) retail. But you act as if it's impossible to have that many in circulation which is just silly. If you count stores like Kmart, Sears, Radioshack, Costco, and Toys R'us to the list I mentioned earlier. You have over 36,000 retail stores worldwide and that's not including overseas retailers, the stock in distribution centers, or the ever growing online retail market.



cmeese47 on 18 October 2013
kowenicki said:
Euphoria14 said:
kowenicki said:
360: 80m + shipped end of Sept with 78.45m sold through according to VGC. 1.55m on shelves!

Yeah, ok.


Serious question as I am not well versed in this subject, how many consoles is normal for a console heading into the holiday season?

This is for the end of September.

Big shipments will start toward the end of October.

It isnt a normal holiday season either...  PS3 and 360 will be down YOY this year.

The point is that we dont know the normal supply as the numbers for the 360 in particular have been off for ages.  The PS3 is anyones guess as we dont get the numbers any more.

Im not just having a go for the sake of it.  I am using common sense and the extra information of the shipment number.  it just does not make any sense whatsoever, hasnt done for years.  The 360 is undertracked by a significant amount in Rest of World and perhaps slightly in Europe imo.

 


Look I typically cant stand 360 and love to see them out sold every week but for once I agree with Kowenicki, with 80 million shipped unless those numbers are rounded up would leave me having their sale through numbers around 79.2 million and I assume that shipped number is through 8/5. If that is true then their sell through would be slightly higher to 79.3 million.



Normando on 18 October 2013
theprof00 said:
Normando said:
theprof00 said:
I agree with Kowen, there was no need for an adjustment to 360 aside from simply where the sold consoles were. 1.5m on shelves would mean that they've specifically ordered quite a lot for their own stores. Maybe they're inticipating a lot of demand after Don's infamous quote. :D


unlikely. There are only about 65 MS stores so even if they each got a ton of 360s it would only account for a small number of the retail stock. As I said in my earlier post odds are you have about 1.5m worldwide thanks to stores like Walmart, Gamestop, Target, and Bestbuy. Worldwide you have a huge number of these stores that need stock.

11,000 Walmarts

6,600 Gamestops

2,900 Best buys

1,800 Targets

It's also important to remember than retail stock doesn't mean on store shelves. Retail stock also includes retail store backrooms, distribution centers, online retailer warehouses.

Meh, 1.5m is still really too big...especially for October. The comment about MS own stores was just a joke. Even with online distribution (not including their own stores or Best Buy kiosks) they could only possibly hold 100k, and that's with an anticipated price drop which is very unlikely until holidays (still too early).

Even all those stores, if they had 100 consoles each, it would only be a million. Seems like far too much doesn't it?

My guess is each one has ~10 with enough distribution supply for 1-2 complete turnovers, which equals about 300k +50k or so for wholeseller stores like costco/BJs.

If I had to guess, assuming they pushed out more consoles early (in order to focus on xb1 production), with enough supply for ~25 per store world wide, and 80m as of October 17th, I would say numbers are in the area of .4-.6m undertracked, and roughly 900k to 1m in retail channels.


I pretty much answer this in my reply to kowenicki so for the numbers I'll direct you to that post. But I think you're right about shipping 360s/ PS3s early for the holidays. Probably not for production purposes but rather for shipping space though.