$60,
The main reason as to why retail is still so important, is simply the price of game, Most successful digital models have been successful because the barrier of entry has become way lower than the physical copy, instead of buying a CD for 13 bucks to get that one or 2 song, you could get those 2 songs for 2 dollars on Itunes. The same becomes true with netflix, a case in which the value far outweighs the physical media. Moreso, the reason as to why steam has been so successful, is because of its sale; yes it does happen that a 60 or 50 dollar game ends up on the best selling list, but most of the purchases that do happen on steam are those on products below 15 dollars.
There is a mental barrier with online purchase. Never will I see myself spending 60 bucks on a digital copy of the game, even though in essence it is the same as that physical copy. I don't think we will see an only online console for a long time, not because it isn't doable,not because gamestop will stop it from happening, but because the industry as a whole has to lower the price of their games (even brand new) to below 40 dollars, digital IS the future, but it won't happen until the game industry changes itself with THE SAME GAMES but at a lower price offering them to a wider audience, offering more subscription models like ps plus, lower the cost of making AAA games, reach to wider audience (I'm thinking about unttapped market with emerging countries, like china, brazil, india, and not specificcaly dumbing down). Making the platforms on which the games are distributed cheaper.
The Moment console gaming will stop being a luxury, reaching into a much wider market (again not a casual market, but emerging countries) is when always online and only online will start being acceptable, but for that the one who needs to change is the gaming industry
