| pezus said: Again, I think it will be closer to your lower end this year. No way it's going to sell 2+ million in the next 3-4 weeks. The last two weeks will be huge drops, I think I predicted each week before like: 300k -> 350k ->250k ->100k. That's 1 million, which would mean 5.3m for the year. A price cut at this point is not going to help them much. Just look what the $50 price cut did when it was still selling decently enough mid-2011 |
I think it's likely to be closer to the lower end, too. But the higher end is definitely plausible.
Your predictions are plausible, although I think you underestimate the final few days before Christmas. I think a more likely result is 300 -> 350 -> 350 -> 100. But then, the Wii managed to sell almost 400k in the week of Black Friday, and Black Friday only happens in the US. In Australia, one of the biggest sale days of the year is actually Boxing Day, for instance. Many others will see huge sales in the few days immediately before Christmas. In my opinion, looking worldwide, a more likely distribution is
300 -> 400 -> 450 -> 150
This gives a finale to the year of 1.3 million. And if this is accurate, I would predict next year's sales to come in around 3.5 million, perhaps 4 million if the reaction to the price cut is strong enough.
Either way, I think lifetime Wii sales should reach 105 million eventually, and potentially as high as 110 million, assuming Nintendo keeps selling it.
Also, the $50 price cut was from $200 to $150, which is not nearly as significant as the drop to $99 that will occur. And it only happened in the US. Looking at the European Wii sales in December in 2009-2011, you see a gradual decrease. This decrease suggests sales of the order of 700k for December 2012. So we're talking in the vicinity of 500-600k from Europe alone in the next few weeks.
