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Forums - Sales Discussion - PlayStation3's Future?

OriGin said:

Mario Party 8
Big Brain Academy
Pokemon Battle
Dragon Quest Swords
Mysims
Nights
Resident Evil UC
Mario Galaxy???
Metroid Prime 3???
Super Smash Bros Brawl???

___________________________________

Boogie
Mario Strikers Charged
Resident Evil 4
Battalion Wars 2
WiiHealth
WiiMusic

Dewy's Adventure
Final Fantascy Crystal Chronicles
Mario & Sonic @ Olympics

Heh... well by half I suppose that was being a little too harsh, there are 9 games with a bit of a stretch on a couple of them (Boogie, RE4, Dewy and FFCC) but take them away and there are at least 5 more TOP games that fit into the quality catagory you've used for all the games in these lists.

The lineup for Wii looks so different though, I'm so glad I got a good specced PC!


Ok. I fixed those.



PSN ID: Kwaad


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TOP is so subjective for many of these games, especially prior to the first few weeks or months (assuming the game has legs which is needed for a true TOP game) of sales...

The wii has the advantage for the most TOP games simply because there will likely be 1-2 attachments of games with each new system, and it's selling the most systems.

Looking at games for each system, the wii has the most new ones this year.  Compare:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii_games

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ps3_games

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_xbox_360_games

 

Personally, of the top games in the lists, the wii list looks the best to me...  but that's probably because of the 3 I follow the wii the closest, and so I recognize them by name... 

 

I figured the wii wasn't the best system, but was the best system for the price.  Honestly, I wouldn't buy a 60GB PS3 for $300 today, as the wii has more games, and the PS3 doesn't even have full PS2 compatibility.  At least the wii does gamecube right.  (I also have a PS2 and gamecube).

 

When we obtained the wii, I figured we can get a PS3 in a few years when it's down to $300-400 and it has a good collection of greatest hits games.  Sony said they expect to sell the PS3 for 10 years.  They sold (and remodeled) the PS1 long after the introduction of the PS2, and PS2 sales have been greater than PS3 sales for months after the release of the PS3...

Sony can have poor sales until next Christmas and still it would still be too soon to safely predict doom. There should be enough games out, that they should be able to catch at least a decent market share next holiday season, even if they are far from the number one spot.  By the third holiday season, they probably still will not catch up with total unit sales, but they better have enough games that can only be played (or at least play better) on the PS3's higher end cpu/graphics, and a low enough price point, they should be able to turn it around.  

Sony's biggest catch-22 problem is they are not selling enough units that developers will put in a full effort to take full advantage of the higher end capabilities in the PS3.  Without several exclusive quality standards bar raising games that are really that much better on the PS3 than they could be with anything else, they are not going to ever do well.  If Sony doesn't do well (and it isn't so far), developers will just make xbox 360 quality games and release to both platforms...

I expect PS3 to win (multiple winners even) in the long run.  but will have fun playing the wii util prices come down and there is a better selection of games.  I will not get a Xbox 360 because of how Microsoft abuses it's monopoly in other sectors.

 



jlauro said:

I expect PS3 to win (multiple winners even) in the long run. but will have fun playing the wii util prices come down and there is a better selection of games. I will not get a Xbox 360 because of how Microsoft abuses it's monopoly in other sectors.

 


 That's why I dont have a 360 yet. but there are some games for it, that I feel I just MUST have. So I'm gonna get one probibally late this year, or early next year.



PSN ID: Kwaad


I fly this flag in victory!

OriGin said:

Mario Party 8
Big Brain Academy
Pokemon Battle
Dragon Quest Swords
Mysims
Nights
Resident Evil UC
Mario Galaxy???
Metroid Prime 3???
Super Smash Bros Brawl???

___________________________________

Boogie
Mario Strikers Charged
Resident Evil 4
Battalion Wars 2
WiiHealth
WiiMusic
Dewy's Adventure
Final Fantascy Crystal Chronicles
Mario & Sonic @ Olympics

Heh... well by half I suppose that was being a little too harsh, there are 9 games with a bit of a stretch on a couple of them (Boogie, RE4, Dewy and FFCC) but take them away and there are at least 5 more TOP games that fit into the quality catagory you've used for all the games in these lists.

The lineup for Wii looks so different though, I'm so glad I got a good specced PC!


Are Battalion wars 2, wii music, dewys adventure, ff cc and mario and sonic at the olympics all coming out this year??

Even if all those games are coming out most all of wii's games are mini games, non games, ports or 'kiddie' games. Not much of a wide demographic:/



sorry, PS3 has NO HOPE of reaching 100 million. People don't seem to think that the PS2 sold 120 million to hardcore gamers. The size of the hardcore market that will drop even $300US (which is the conceivable price of the PS3 in the next 4 years) is vanishingly small, as Sony is finding out the hard way. I'm sure they will sell well, but the quite simple fact is there are not 100 million people who will drop $300 on a console especially when there are much cheaper alternatives (note that most of the 120 million PS2's probably got about 20 hours of gameplay TOTAL.) I'm sure Sony sell a few Playstations and probably break even at the end, they will NOT sell near the number of the PS2, the price is just too high and will remain out of the range of most people. I simply don't ever see the PS3 getting below $200.



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In Generation 6, the PS2 was a system that had games for all types, while the GC was more kiddy and the Xbox served Mature audiences. That's why the PS2 did so well. The Wii is trying to be an "Everybody's" system, but it is leaving out a demographic of "hard core" gamers. However, it is gaining some new demographics of non-gamers. It will probably do the PS2's success or better. PS3's price will probably close the gap with the 360 pretty quickly because the components that are keeping the price high is new technology (like Blu-ray, Cell). As I understand, Sony is making new manufacturing processes that will greatly reduce the cost. I'm thinking PS3 and X360 will do around the same this generation - probably between 40 and 60 mil. each. I will call X360 / PS3 successful if they break even this generation because it is a huge deal to get into the HD market. PS4 / Xbox3 will more likely roll in the profits because HD will be more set in stone. It's too early to doom right now for any company.



"Naturally the common people don't want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, IT IS THE LEADERS of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is TELL THEM THEY ARE BEING ATTACKED, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. IT WORKS THE SAME IN ANY COUNTRY."  --Hermann Goering, leading Nazi party member, at the Nuremberg War Crime Trials 

 

Conservatives:  Pushing for a small enough government to be a guest in your living room, or even better - your uterus.

 

Hus said:

 FF13, GT5, MGS4, GTA4 - thats what will sale 100 million.

and what car BS is that ? Japanese cars tend to be more expensive,  they sale on reliability and strong brand name.  American cars dont sale well because they have a well desreved rep as being POS quality cars.


 

CrazzyMan said:

AND PEOPLE:
about doom stuff, you can speak, when ps3 will have games, and still won`t be selling good, that means only after MGS4, FFXIII, GT5, G3, KZ2 releases. =)

 

The only problem I have with that MGS4 and FFXIII will sell consols is that before motorstorm arrived, it was wait for motorstorm. Before that in Japan it was wait for Gundam. How manu games can we wait for?

Hus, those games you have pointed out has not sold 100 million copies combined. Which might mean that they wont sell 100 million PS3. GTA4 is possible to buy to xbox360 also.

I do agree about japanese cars. That why I want a Ford Mustang

Ending this I want to make a estimation:

  • Wii Sport will sell more than MGS4 and FFXIII combined in Japan.
  • Wii Play will sell more than MGS4.

If it will come true, only time will show



 

 

Buy it and pray to the gods of Sigs: Naznatips!

A few coments: Both sides seem delusional about what can and will happen. I'm a X360 fanboy, so hopefully I can be nonbiased on the Wii-PS3 wars. Here's the issue: I believe people want PS3s, but can't afford them. People can afford Wiis, but will end up wanting PS3s at some point. The PS3 is selling well even @ 3.2m units sold. Why? Thats alot of units for something so ungodly expensive. Lets look at revenue: The Wii is (on average) about $225 between USD and Yen, and everything else. Im just using this as an average number. At $225 a unit, the Wii has grossed about 1.44b USD since launch. A very impressive number. The Xbox 360 sold about 1.2b during it's first 6 months (3m systems @ $380USD each, accounting for 10% of systems being cores). The PS3, at $550 each (again, averaging, and this is a low average), has sold about 1.7b in hardware since launch. So compare: Wii: 1.4b in hardware (6.4m @ $225) 360: 1.2b in hardware (3.0m @ $380) PS3: 1.7b in hardware (3.2m @ $550) So the PS3 leads in revenue. Does this mean the PS3 is winning? No. But it IS showing that consumers are willing to pay for the PS3 - just not nearly as many consumers as would be willing to buy a Wii, or such. Because of this, unless devs really drop the PS3 as badly as they flocked to the PS1, we should see strong sales in 2008 and 2009 when Sony drops the price. Again, I believe that this shows that the revenue can be generated for PS3 console sales, but can't be shown due to the incredible pricetag. The pricetag is the #1 reason why consumers cant and won't buy a PS3. Not software, not features. It's just about the money. The 360 is in a similar boat, as 90% of consumers are paying for the prem and not the core (I question how this will change with the elite). The Playstation 3 has a future. I anticipate that REVENUE will be near the PS3 by the time everything is said and done. However, in terms of units, we could easily witness a 40% drop in terms of hardware sold, and we're going in that direction rapidly. As I have always said, we'll see around 7.75m units sold at EOY, a very bleak number. However, it will steadily improve as the price drops and drops and drops, and new games come on board. Will Wii Sports/ect sell better than most major Sony games? of course! N64 games sold better than quite a few Sony games. FFVII didn't sell as many as Goldeneye did. OoT sold incredible, ect, ect. But a few games with 5m+ sales aren't as important as having hundreds of middleweight titles. The wii and PS3 seem matched in that. As I have always said, by around 2012 we should see the PS3 with around 60-65m units sold, and Sony will continue support up till 2014 ala PS2-type support, with the PS3 selling 70-78m units. The Wii should sell around 47.5m to 55m units by 2010/2011 before a succuessor is launched. Overall, the Wii family of units will outsell the Sony PS3-4 family of consoles in the same timeframe of Nov 2006 through 2012, 2013, ect.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

mrstickball said:
A few coments: Both sides seem delusional about what can and will happen. I'm a X360 fanboy, so hopefully I can be nonbiased on the Wii-PS3 wars. Here's the issue: I believe people want PS3s, but can't afford them. People can afford Wiis, but will end up wanting PS3s at some point. The PS3 is selling well even @ 3.2m units sold. Why? Thats alot of units for something so ungodly expensive. Lets look at revenue: The Wii is (on average) about $225 between USD and Yen, and everything else. Im just using this as an average number. At $225 a unit, the Wii has grossed about 1.44b USD since launch. A very impressive number. The Xbox 360 sold about 1.2b during it's first 6 months (3m systems @ $380USD each, accounting for 10% of systems being cores). The PS3, at $550 each (again, averaging, and this is a low average), has sold about 1.7b in hardware since launch. So compare: Wii: 1.4b in hardware (6.4m @ $225) 360: 1.2b in hardware (3.0m @ $380) PS3: 1.7b in hardware (3.2m @ $550) So the PS3 leads in revenue. Does this mean the PS3 is winning? No. But it IS showing that consumers are willing to pay for the PS3 - just not nearly as many consumers as would be willing to buy a Wii, or such. Because of this, unless devs really drop the PS3 as badly as they flocked to the PS1, we should see strong sales in 2008 and 2009 when Sony drops the price. Again, I believe that this shows that the revenue can be generated for PS3 console sales, but can't be shown due to the incredible pricetag. The pricetag is the #1 reason why consumers cant and won't buy a PS3. Not software, not features. It's just about the money. The 360 is in a similar boat, as 90% of consumers are paying for the prem and not the core (I question how this will change with the elite). The Playstation 3 has a future. I anticipate that REVENUE will be near the PS3 by the time everything is said and done. However, in terms of units, we could easily witness a 40% drop in terms of hardware sold, and we're going in that direction rapidly. As I have always said, we'll see around 7.75m units sold at EOY, a very bleak number. However, it will steadily improve as the price drops and drops and drops, and new games come on board. Will Wii Sports/ect sell better than most major Sony games? of course! N64 games sold better than quite a few Sony games. FFVII didn't sell as many as Goldeneye did. OoT sold incredible, ect, ect. But a few games with 5m+ sales aren't as important as having hundreds of middleweight titles. The wii and PS3 seem matched in that. As I have always said, by around 2012 we should see the PS3 with around 60-65m units sold, and Sony will continue support up till 2014 ala PS2-type support, with the PS3 selling 70-78m units. The Wii should sell around 47.5m to 55m units by 2010/2011 before a succuessor is launched. Overall, the Wii family of units will outsell the Sony PS3-4 family of consoles in the same timeframe of Nov 2006 through 2012, 2013, ect.

 

Good point.... Although we dont know what the new Wii or PS4 has to bring to the table.. seeing as the Wii is being so succesful Sony will probably incorporate something similiar to the Wii Mote.. ( SIXAXIS is nice and all and adds a little extra fun but it doesnt come close to the Wii's motion control ).... Like you said the number one reason behind the PS3's slow sales is the price.... when Sony drops the price the sales will soar.... and most likely it will be during Holiday time with all the holiday sales and what not and a few AAA games coming out the sales will be high... Also HALO3 for the 360 will increase sales for awhile but after that sales will plummet again, seeing as most people who bought a 360 did it for HALO3.... the Wii will shine not because of its game because its price tag.. sure it has some good games but to me it seems like the Mario franchise died after Super Mario 64.... and that now their making garbage with the game.... Nintendo has ALOT of classic games that are waiting to be remade but i dont know why?

The PS3 will most likely lead... but I am starting to get doubts wether it will hit 100million at the end of its lifespan.. ( 2016 ) Maybe once some of these new games come out we can see what to expect in the future?....

By the way: wouldn't it make extreme profits if Nintendo+Sony came together made a new gaming system with like 10000 exclusives =/

 



the ps3 will never reach 100 million mark here is why:

Looking at the install base of ps2 (130 mil)

AAA titles sold less than 5% of the total install base, we can safely assume there are huge percentage of ppl bought the ps2 and modify it to play pirated games.  we cant ignore how big this partion of users contributed to the 130 million install base of ps2.

now lets take a look at the cost of those pirated user for ps2

ps2 $200 + dvd burner 100$ + $100 mod fee = $400 a well mass market price, these price seem high because its base on when the ps2 was around $200 thats when the system really start selling huge and dvd burner price start to plummet.

now if those pirated users switch to ps3:

ps3 $600 + Blue Ray burner(this wont be cheap) + mod fee = (estimate)1.5k range price range for all those pirated user is too much, and if a blank BR discs cost like $10 thats alot of $$$.

and I'm not even account in the price a HDTV, lets just assume these cheap pirated user play on their cheap standard TVs.

even though these user never bought games, but they are significantly large to help boost the install base and convince 3rd party dev. to make game for the console.