rocketpig said:
Exactly. The market, at best, is stagnant. At worst, it's shrinking by the day just as Sony and Nintendo are entering it with $250 devices and $30-40 games. I don't see a big enough market for both of these devices to survive and there may not even be enough for one device to rake in cash and stay profitable over its life cycle. As you said, even kids are moving to convergence devices. I have three nieces and each owns a DS. Over the past year, I've seen less and less of that DS and none of them care about the 3DS because they all own iPod Touches now and the oldest (17) is clamoring for an iPhone. So the casuals aren't going to care about these devices, the kids around me don't care about them, and my friends (older hardcore gamers) don't care about the devices. Exactly WHO is going to buy these things in large enough numbers to warrant their existence? PS. to be clear, I think the 3DS will probably do okay. It's the NGP that I think is going to go down faster than Lindsay Lohan trying to score a free eightball. |
I actually see it from the other direction.
When the DS launched, It was uncontended in the handheld gaming space and went on to break all previous sales records, which depended alot on the casual audience and a significanly lower price point.The PSP launched very soon afterwards and has gradgually gained significant market share (your absolutely kidding yourself if you think the 7th best selling console of all time is a failure).
Obviously this time around, the iOS and Android devices have pulled a lot of the DS's previous market away and, going into to next gen with the 3DS, Nintendo will probably fall significantly short of its predecessor (at least in terms of units sold).
The NGP on the otherhand does not target the same demographic as the iOS and Android. They target specifically gamers that want a home console experience on-the-go (and is actually attracting new consumers that never played a handheld in their life, because it replicates the home console experience better than any handheld previously made). If the NGP launches at the same price the PSP did ($250), then it will at minimum exceed the PSP's market.