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Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

No, Wii will not reach 50% market share. Not even in the next 2 years



PSN ID: krik

Optimistic predictions for 2008 (Feb 5 2008): Wii = 20M, PS3 = 14M, X360 = 9.5M

 

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RolStoppable said:
fkusumot said:


By any chance, did you steal this graph out of Pachter's brief case?

 Close. I started up MS Paint and then sat on my mouse and waggled around until the chart came out.



My guess is Q1 2009



2007 Wii 16,758 - http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons%5B%5D=Wii&reg%5B%5D=Total&start=39089&end=39453

2007 X360 - 8,372 - http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons%5B%5D=PS3&reg%5B%5D=Total&start=39089&end=39453

2007 Ps3 - 7,730 - http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons%5B%5D=PS3&reg%5B%5D=Total&start=39089&end=39453

7,730 + 8,372 = 16,057

16,758 - 16,057 = 0,701.

Wii sold 0,701 million, or 700k more than the others last year.

The X360 had already sold 8,1M - http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons%5B%5D=X360&reg%5B%5D=Total&start=38067&end=39089

The ps3 1,37 - http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons%5B%5D=PS3&reg%5B%5D=Total&start=38067&end=39089

The Wii had sold 3,26 - http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons%5B%5D=Wii&reg%5B%5D=Total&start=38067&end=39089

8,1 + 1,37 = 9,47

9,47 - 3,26 = 6,21.

X360 + Ps3 already had a 6,21M lead.

After this year, it is 6,21 - 0,7 = 5,21.

By this rate, it will take 7 and a half year for the Wii to achieve 50 % market share.



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

If you look at it by last half year, X360 + PS3 was 600K up, so no way!



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

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VGChartz Hardware data for the period 07th Jan 2007 to 28th Oct 2007:


ConsoleWiiPS3X360
Total
10,318,498
4,227,399
4,837,653

The difference in the first 10 months was 1,253,446.  PS3 and X360 made up some ground with holiday sales.  Wii was largely supply constrained in 2007, but in 2008 there will be 300-800k more units produced per month(or more if production is being ramped up again).  If demand is there, this would mean an extra 5M or so units sold over the first 10 months of 2008.  This would result in a gain of ~6.25M units and the difference at this point is 5.57M.  There's a good chance that PS3 and/or X360 sales will grow from 2007 though, so Wii probably won't make it in 2008.  Depending on how things go this year it'll either have a good shot at doing it in 2009 or it won't ever do it.

Oyvoyvoyv said:
2007 Wii 16,758 - http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons%5B%5D=Wii®%5B%5D=Total&start=39089&end=39453

2007 X360 - 8,372 - http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons%5B%5D=PS3®%5B%5D=Total&start=39089&end=39453

2007 Ps3 - 7,730 - http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons%5B%5D=PS3®%5B%5D=Total&start=39089&end=39453

7,730 + 8,372 = 16,057

16,758 - 16,057 = 0,701.

Wii sold 0,701 million, or 700k more than the others last year.

The X360 had already sold 8,1M - http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons%5B%5D=X360®%5B%5D=Total&start=38067&end=39089

The ps3 1,37 - http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons%5B%5D=PS3®%5B%5D=Total&start=38067&end=39089

The Wii had sold 3,26 - http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons%5B%5D=Wii®%5B%5D=Total&start=38067&end=39089

8,1 + 1,37 = 9,47

9,47 - 3,26 = 6,21.

X360 + Ps3 already had a 6,21M lead.

After this year, it is 6,21 - 0,7 = 5,21.

By this rate, it will take 7 and a half year for the Wii to achieve 50 % market share.


Nice calculations, but they're completely useless because the rate of Wii production is 2x of which it was last year in January. Nintendo will sell a *lot* more systems this year than last. Microsoft will probably beat the 7.5 million they've been selling every year, but not by much as their sales have been getting progressively worse in UK/Eu. And as the PS3 gains momentum, it may cost the 360 sales.

What we know about the PS3 is that it will definitely outsell the 360 this year and it will definitely outperform itself from 2007. I believe it will manage 10-11 million sales, leaving the 360 to cover the gap with the Wii. And the 360 won't do it.

This is going to be the greatest crow eating thread ever. There are a lot of people in here saying, "yeah, it's possible for the Wii to reach 50% sometime in 2008" and there are even  more people saying, "no way, it's impossible."

I'm excited to watch the percentage tick up every month.  We're hoping for 44.3% by the end of January.



Why will Nintendo sell a lot more? Look at this: http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=Wii&reg2=All&cons3=Wii&reg3=All&weeks=65&weekly=1

Ignore the week 1-6 and 46 + Since they are within holiday seasons. It seems to keep a nice 250k average all over the year for me. Have Nintendo opened any new factories, or bought any? Not as I know.

Look here: http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Japan&cons2=Wii&reg2=America&cons3=Wii&reg3=Total+Other&weeks=65&weekly=1

The Wii has been holding very straight on in Total Others... In Japan they actually dropped...

There were sold 32 million machines last year, and totally there are sold 45ish (16+20+8)

There were sold 150 mill machines last gen (110+20+20) (Ps2 sold into this gen too)...

As of now, after 1 year there were 32M x 5 years is 160 Million... And this year there were also sold 9M Ps2s ( http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons%5B%5D=PS2&reg%5B%5D=Total&start=39089&end=39453 )

These will not buy a new console next year (they will sometime through this gen though, so I won't add them to the math, since I believe they are temporary.



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

Also, next year, GTA IV comes out, I believe that one will be a "system decider"
People who haven't been able to choose, will probably choose now. And none will choose Wii, since it isn't on it.

Of course, Wii has SSBB and MKWii, but even though I think they might sell as much, I don't think they will move as many systems.

And of course, there is always the Vii, which will come out as the winning console, it has already sold 10k in China and has the system seller "super Kario Galaxy" comming out. No, I'm not joking.



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

Consider this:

19.153 million units from initial release through Dec 30th 2007.
Add 1.8 million x 12 = 21.6 million sold for the year of 2008 for a total of 40.753 million by Dec 30th 2008.

That number is set in stone contingent upon two simple projections.
1) Wii sells out through 2008 (most likely).
2) Nintendo changes its policy on production (1.8 million/month) under the assumption that the growth rate in sales through 2007 is sustainable throughout 2008.

"Ultimately, Wii production numbers -- and the United States' allocation of consoles -- are determined by Nintendo's home office in Kyoto, Japan. Harrison says the company will continue producing 1.8 million Wiis every month until demand subsides."

That's from the mouth of Nintendo's Senior VP.
http://www.wired.com/gaming/hardware/news/2007/11/wii_shortage

Everyone can do their own math and projections as to how many units the PS3 and 360 will sell as well as what percentage of the overall market that will encompass. Unless you lowball both consoles, 50% will not happen.

So for everyone predicting over 21.6 million in sales for 2008, until Nintendo announces an increase in production and follows through (which as it's been established, cannot be flipped like a light switch), you can just STOP already.