Ok, so the first of the big three is done and rampant relfection has been going on all over the forums. Let's try summing it up here for a solid discussion.

Non-Kinect Games:
The next series of exclusives is interesting and will sell well. Gears 3 and HReach will ofcourse top the list. They had good videos, but will definitely need to see more.

Still nothing here will drive new business, only sustain current user base. Nothing non-Kinect related will spur an increase in console sales. Its all sequels with no real new content.

I almost forgot the new MGS footage. That actually looked like a good game. Though it could be better on Move or WiiM . Interesting to see the gameplay footage from floor.

Kinect Live controls stuff:
Overall very interesting and a nice addition to the entertaiment value of the 360. I liked the controls and new channel features. However, did you notice that when it was being demoed, he kept his hands down at his side in an unnatural setup until he wanted to control it. I think that may be an issue as it will confuse people. The voice interaction was really good though.

Still nothing here will drive new business on its own merits. It will combine with other features to create value for the purely casual user as an entertainment device. But still no big push to change sales trends here.

Kinect Games:

Let's face it, most sucked or were bad rip offs of what Nintendo has already done. The Kinectimals, sports games, and the racing games were horrible rip offs that have been on Wii or DS for years.The fitness game was easily meh and matched by WiiFit . I did find interest in playing the Adventures game with friends, but not enough to want Kinect. The demo of Forza was stupid. Racing in that caliber will remain with controls, probably real stearing wheels.The Star Wars game looked like fun, but could be just as easily done on Move or Wii, maybe even better on those two.

Finally, the only game that has selling potential was the dance game. As proven with Wii, a dance game can be extremely popular and that one looked well done. If the price of Kinect is low enough (<$100), this game alone could make it a successful product.

New 360.
Looks nice and has a great value added wireless N which is sold seperately for what $100 or so.

Given the old models were price reduced immediately after the conference, they are being discontinued. If that is true and they go away over the next month expect to see the new 360 given a significant price drop to the $199 price point to match the expected entry price.

So my advice is to NOT buy a 360 for a couple months. The new model, which has a very nice redesign as well as wireless N will be sub $200 soon.

Final word:

Nothing in that conference made me think MS is going to stop Sony from taking 2nd place before this gen is over. The games were ok at best and Kinects still uncertain price point leaves a big ???? on how well it will actually do.

360 will remain unchanged in the long run.

PS3 will take 2nd, potentially by next March.

Kinect will be an overall failure in terms of creating any push for the hardware. (I will take this back if it is priced below $100)

Edit: Gamestop has Kinect priced at $149.

So...

Gamestop has

new arcade w/ kinect at $300 and elite w/ kinect at $400.

This has so much fail written on it, its unbelievable.

Its really hard for core gamers to understand success and falure in gaming.

That applies even to me. Some of the Kinect stuff was like...WTF? to me.

Your post seems like a prediction that a hardcore gamer would make. But we will see what Ms's financials say on the end of this year... I have a feeling there will be a whole lot of black zeroes due to kids, moms and people just confused with what Kinect is.

I tried to also include the point of view from the casual.

I did say the expanded entertainment stuff looked nice, but it isn't enough to make grandma buy a $200 360 and a ?$180 Kinect. Same goes with any of these games, expect maybe the dance game. That is the only potential casual system seller I see.

Again, it really comes down to the price point of Kinect. Over $100 and its failure road no doubt.

I agree that price plays a big role.

If the price is right, I think that a lot more things other than games will move Kinect.

One also can't ignore Xbox live revenue. They've built quite a hub service which really owns everything else out there...when it comes to features, ease of use and variety of services. People will be happy to pay 50 bucks a year for all that stuff.

Kinect could sell very well based on xbox live integration. In America at least...

if this thread is true

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=111337

and Kinect is $149.... then my final words stand true.

Problem is MS doesn't really want Kinect to sell just to its existing base. They want the expanded base Wii has and with the games they showed today the only thing that is unavailable on Wii was the dance game. That game surpassed anythign Wii has and could be a seller.

However, for $149 for kinect and $50 for the game, it ain't happening. (Almost for the $200 for a 360 too)

I think the 360 slim/rebrand will do really well in the US and UK, not sure about rest of EU and Japan. I'll go out on a limb and say 360 outsells the PS3 next week WW.

Of course its going to outsell PS3 (given news of today) after the price cuts going into effect. Now if PS3 announces some huge price cut that goes into effect this week you could be wrong.

However, the real goal is to outsell the PS3 a month from now and the months after that. Based on what I saw today, that is NOT happening.

Just the actual projections of MS and Sony show that PS3 is likely to be higher than 360 by then, that's all.

i wonder why Microsoft revealed the new Xbox 360 slim at E3....

will it have the boost that the PS3 got???