Alan Wake since I assume it will have an advertising budget and I don't think I've even heard of a Heavy Rain commercial.

I think the genre of Alan Wake is more "accessible" for the taste of people.

Probably Alan Wake!

heavy rain because its completely different from most games we've seen this gen.

alan wake seems like its going to be just like playing silent hill just without strange creatures

AW will get a huge dose of advertising in the near future, heck it even had a short movie/drama or w/e it's called made for it too and was on national tv if I'm not mistaken also...

With the advertising it gets and will get it will most prob move past HR, but I still think HR will get the lead LT

I think Alan Wake will start out a little slower but in the long run it will outsell Heavy Rain.

psh, Europe doesn't count.  :-p

The game didn't really get advertised in America, the biggest market, and I would be willing to be we'll be seeing Alan Wake commercials all over the place and probably in the middle of every Happy Town episode for an entire month after it releases.

wow
If you told me month ago that people say "heavy rain will sell more than AW" I would have said that you are nuts and that AW is going to be one of the big hitters in 2010

but now I'm not so sure
It's getting bad press and alot of people seem to be disappointed , though they haven't played it
the only thing that can save AW now is either big marketing or realy realy good word of mouth

What negative press?

Also, why are you listening to negative press from people that haven't played the game?

honestly heavy rain will sell more than alan wake based on pre oderes it is going to sell like too human did around 200,000

I will say Alan Wake. Although not always true I will always go for the bigger install base all other things being "equal".

There was a thread recently about Alan Wake vs SMG2 in sales.

How far the bar has dropped (even though I thought that said thread was a bit stupid).