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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official October NPD thread (data should be out momentarily)

Diomedes1976 said:
Well ,I dont know ...but tracking it higher because someone at MS told so seems just wrong .

I mean ,all your experience puts you toward believeing 360 is selling better than NPD says .

But ,your experience comes from the people you know ,the samples you take etc .NPD simply has more samples ,thus their experience is greater .

Actually, your wrong.  Once you get a certain number of samples.  Your statistical formula is vastly more important then getting more samples unless you are getting a large number of samples.

For example NPD probably refuses data from more smaller buisnesses they can use as sources because they don't want to mess with their formulas until they do a yearly data reliability test vs total shipped numbers.  No nede to screw up your whole formula just to add 2 stores in minnesota.  Or to change your formula if your undertracking a console because you risk screwing it up even more until you have an entire year to see if your overtracking it consistantly or if your formula needs a major overhaul in some areas.

Hence i imagine that's why Ioi is keeping the numbers like they are, it seems right now that the 360 is being undertracked vs MS's internal data, and since VGchartz isn't paid for their numbers they can take the risk of changing their formula more often and if mistakes are made just change the historical data. 



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Maybe all the overtracked 360's are just the number of xbox's people are buying to replace their RROD ones? ^_^



ioi said:
Listen, I'm not saying NPD are wrong and we are right.

I am merely saying that I am happy with where we are with our figures, as I have been for the last 3-4 months.

 Well I'm not happy with our 360 numbers which I've beent stating have been overtracked for awhile.

 

I mean no offense but there is obviously some kinda discrepancy if last month we undertrack in comparison to NPD for 360 and then this month overtrack in comparison of NPD for 360. 



Well ,I am going to bed good night (its 2 am here ) to everyone .



So the PS3 is 5,000,000 behind the 360 in America, and it's catching up by about negative 250,000 a month.

At that rate, the PS3 should pass the 360 in April of 2005.



We don't provide the 'easy to program for' console that they [developers] want, because 'easy to program for' means that anybody will be able to take advantage of pretty much what the hardware can do, so the question is what do you do for the rest of the nine and half years? It's a learning process. - SCEI president Kaz Hirai

It's a virus where you buy it and you play it with your friends and they're like, "Oh my God that's so cool, I'm gonna go buy it." So you stop playing it after two months, but they buy it and they stop playing it after two months but they've showed it to someone else who then go out and buy it and so on. Everyone I know bought one and nobody turns it on. - Epic Games president Mike Capps

We have a real culture of thrift. The goal that I had in bringing a lot of the packaged goods folks into Activision about 10 years ago was to take all the fun out of making video games. - Activision CEO Bobby Kotick

 

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Well ,I am going to bed good night (its 2 am here ) to everyone .



Zucas said:
ioi said:
Listen, I'm not saying NPD are wrong and we are right.

I am merely saying that I am happy with where we are with our figures, as I have been for the last 3-4 months.

 Well I'm not happy with our 360 numbers which I've beent stating have been overtracked for awhile.

 

I mean no offense but there is obviously some kinda discrepancy if last month we undertrack in comparison to NPD for 360 and then this month overtrack in comparison of NPD for 360. 


Yeah, the discrepensy is that Ioi changed his formula after being giving some shipped 360 numbers.  Atleast that's what i get out of it.



*was munching on some popcorn, but then the site crashed on him

Anyway, there's a variety of possibilities, and we probably won't get a somewhat definitive answer until we get it straight from the horse's mouth (by that, I mean the manufacture quarterly ship data, our adjustment usually happen around there). NPD is hardly the horse's mouth, they calculate the numbers just as we do, and do keep in mind that in statistics, a distributed sample is far more important than isolated sample, and that percentage means nothing little (unless someone get 100%, then it's fact) after the sample size passed a certain number (was it n > 30 or something?).

 

The only reason we'd this site get so off number is most likely from statistical bias, basically the retailers we end up tracking affected the sales either due to retail chains (if ioi is 100% honest, which I believe, this should not matter) or regional difference. Edit: It's also possible that the company responsible for shipping these consoles done a really crappy job and we end up overtracking number because of the difference in perception to sell-through? (improbable)

 

Personally, I believe the number are somewhere in between, and will await to see how this comes out when the quarterly are finally released. There's really no right nor wrong right now.

 

On a side note, have NPD ever change their monthly data after publishing it?? 

 

Edit/Quick Summary: All above thoughts does not mean that I think neither NPD nor Vgchartz is necessarily wrong, it's basically undecided since this isn't exactly an easy period to track.

 

P.S. Have some patience, everyone's argument so far amounts to some kind of personal belief instead of any actual facts. I know you don't want to believe some console other than your favorite is doing that much better if there's an alternative that shows it's lower or vice versa, but that hardly make your assumption any better. Tune the fanboyism down a bit and we can have a proper discussion.

 

P.P.S. Pardon the wall of text 



I am a PC gamer, and also have a NDS now, but without access to a Nintendo Wii until End of 2007.

Currently playing: Super Smash Brothers Brawl(Wii), Mystery Dungeon: Shiren the Wanderer(DS), Dragon Quest Heroes: Rocket Slime (DS), WiiFit(Wii)

Games Recently Beaten: Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: My Life as a King (Normal; Very Hard after the next DLCs become available)

1 word: RTFA

ioi said:
We could go into detail on exactly which stores NPD track and which they don't, market shares, extrapolations and so on. But I think it is beyond the scope of this conversation and would probably reveal more than a lot of people would like revealed.

NPD gets around 60% of sales directly (maybe a bit less) and estimates for the remaining 40%. Of course this is a big sample, but when you are missing out whole retail chains it is difficult (as I know) to successfully estimate for their sales.

That said, a 65% discrepancy so Sony's PS3 figures and a 40% discrepancy to our 360 figures is a lot. We could be wrong and they could be right, the truth could lie somewhere in between.

That is up to you guys to decide.

 ioi I'm disappointed that you refuse to update your "tracked" data based on the official data from NDP. NDP is the official entity in this matter and they have more data then anyone else (60% is more than enough for pretty accurate tracking).

Also, you are using Sony's shipped to retailer numbers to justify your undertracking of the PS3 sales but you actually overtracked PS3 too. NDP number for BOTH the 360 and PS3 are lower than yours. Please don't use the shipped numbers and compare them to VGC and NDP. We know it does not work like that.

The fact that your data is wrong is not bad, most of the time you guys are pretty close to the mark. The bad part is that you refuse to update the data to reflect NDP numbers. I like to come here and post my annoying fanboy posts in the forums. I like to brag about your site to my friends and co-workers. I like to defend VGC when I see people contesting the data in other gaming sites but refusing to update data when your data is clearly wrong for a full month is going to change the way I look at this site.

 I hope you reconsider and adjust your data accordingly to the official numbers.

 



PSN ID: krik

Optimistic predictions for 2008 (Feb 5 2008): Wii = 20M, PS3 = 14M, X360 = 9.5M

 

whats the point of this site if loi just automatically changes his data to be in line with npd?