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Since Vgchartz has overtracked software sales consistently verse NPD top 10 for at least the last couple months it's very likely that current numbers are actually too high.

Trying to compare sold to retailers vs. sold through to consumers is especially bad with AAA titles since stores typically well overstock highly anticipated items. Look at Halo 3, MS shipped an ungodly number of units at launch and we know a lot of those were still sitting there next week.