The system selling power of games diminishes the further into the cycle we go, especially when it comes to franchises that already have a presence on the system.
FF7R & TLOU2 will both be huge sellers and will definitely move some hardware but the wont stop the decline.
As for the forcast getting blown past, that's not happening, they already adjusted it down twice this year and if they wanted to lowball than they would have done so from the beginning.
I do agree with your points and that a down revision probably wasn't made to just brag that they overshoot it by some million.
But if they decide to make a permanent cut there is chance that they overshoot it anyway (but the down revision indicates they didn't want to cut, but plans change).
duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"
Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"