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6 Years. But it depends on the tech that's available. If the PS5 launched this year it probably wouldn't have been taking advantage of Zen2/Navi tech and been substantially less of a jump due to this, so 2020 seems like the best time.

Switch could be replaced in less than 6 years and I'd be happy. It'll be very outdated if it waits longer. Holiday 2022 for the successor is a good time imo.