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colafitte on 20 June 2019
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Well, now in June, things seems to be clearer to know what the consoles are going to do this year, so...

Switch keeps doing very well, with a huge growth from last year despite no heavy hitters until now, although last year performance of Switch was kinda disappointing too and is still behind what PS4 did last year in the same period, so let's say Switch is doing that, "very well" and is surprising me with its performance. This is not the strongest period of the year for Nintendo consoles anyway. Super Mario Maker 2 in a few days is going to help Switch sales a lot. MM2 seems to be the next great franchise for Nintendo in terms of sales. It's going to do gangbusters. If i have to guess right now, Switch seems to be on pace to end the year with 19-19'5M sold to consumers (and around 18-18'5M shipments, so doing better than what they said last FY), more than i expected at the begining of the year, way more...so i admit being wrong on that. But I also don't expect this kind of growth (+25-30% YOY) for the last 3-4 months of the year, there can be a growth of course, but not by that much. because i don't expect Pokemon S&S doing what SSBU did last year, so yeah, very good year for Switch, maybe they can even reach 20M sold. 2019 should be peak year for the console.

For PS4 and Sony's prediction of 16M shipped by this FY, it's time to say the same thing i said about 20M Nintendo forecast last year. NO WAY IT'S HAPPENING. PS4 is on pace to fight to reach 14M sales to consumers. If there is not a huge official and permanent price cut for PS4 base model for $200 or something like that during the second half of the year i see it impossible PS4 can reach that goal of 16M shipped. Although, if we take some perspective of the situation, selling 13-14M units to consumers in 2019 so far in the gen and after so many units already sold is still impressive, and what i expect is Sony admiting in the future they were too optimistic like Nintendo was last year.

As for XBOX..., i said months ago that XBO won't reach 50M before next gen console arrives, and after knowing now when exactly Scarlett is going to launch, Holiday 2020, i'm pretty sure now. XBO needs to sell around 7'5M units from June 2019 to Nov 2020. They won't....100% sure about it.