My rough list (Bold the ones I'm absolutely sure about).
Hoping for one of the unknowns to be an early Fable IV reveal. I'm unsure about MCC, Gears Tactics (May not be at E3), Sea of Thieves Update (They seemed to downplay their E3 participation on one of their streams, I feel like they could just talk about Sea of Thieves in the pre-show or Inside Xbox). Rumour is Age of Empires IV isn't ready to be shown yet.
Regarding your own list, I would say State of Decay 2 won't be there, I doubt they have anything big planned for that. Turn 10 is definitely not going to be showing Forza Motorsport 8 anytime soon, they have only just started developing it. The Initiative is way too early and Compulsion hasn't started on their next game I believe.
Obsidian is 50/50 with them having multiple teams, same case with InXile. Rare's next IP is apparently a way off. Fable is years away also but I'd still prefer if they just revealed it already since it's been massively leaked and it would be a nice major announcement.
Eh, Minecraft could be two, Minecraft & Minecraft Dungeons.
Wait, but wasn´t their last game released in 2017? Why would they have started developing the new one just recently? And didn´t all Motorsports games have a two years gap between them? I mean, I know it has been said that there wouldnt be any Forza for this year but still, that means that next year they will already be one year late on their usual schedule.